NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Cowboys’ defense faces Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in the biggest game of Week 5.
But beyond that playoff rematch, we are looking at Detroit’s attempt to make up for the ground game against Carolina with their rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs, C.J. Stroud’s shot at history in Atlanta, James Conner taking on an old rival from Cincinnati in Arizona, and Patrick Mahomes aiming for a bounce-back game in Minnesota.
We have a collection of our favorite player props for Week 5, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
Yes, we are going to keep trying with Detroit’s rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs, and clear No. 2 option behind David Montgomery. This time it is about the game script. Last year, the Lions were upset by the Panthers in a game where the running games could not be any different. The Panthers ran for 320 yards to just 45 for Detroit, which got punched in the mouth in a 37-23 loss.
New year, new Detroit team. The Lions rank No. 4 in rushing attempts and they are not shy to keep feeding their backs. They are also a 10-point home favorite against winless Carolina, which has a new coaching staff, and the Panthers are 27th in rushing yards and 29th in yards per carry allowed.
Even the one-dimensional Vikings got 95 yards out of starter Alexander Mattison and 40 yards from new addition Cam Akers last week. The Panthers have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in every game, and the Lions figure to be leading for most of this game, so the attempts should be there.
The Pick
The Lions had 10 days to prepare for this game, so David Montgomery should be well rested after his 32-carry night against Green Bay. But even if the Lions continue giving Montgomery most of the carries, Gibbs is good enough to chip in over 37.5 rushing yards.
Gibbs had 8 carries for 40 yards against Green Bay last week. The Panthers also have 39 missed tackles, the 3rd most in 2023 according to Pro Football Reference. Gibbs will use his burst to gain the necessary yardage to hit this over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bovada
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
Yes, we made this pick last week and C.J. Stroud did not comply by throwing his first NFL pick. Don’t call me a hater by bringing it back again this week, because this is just playing the odds.
Stroud has now gone 151 pass attempts without an interception. It is the 5th-longest streak to begin a career in NFL history behind only:
- Dak Prescott, 176 attempts
- Tom Brady, 162 attempts
- Kyle Allen, 159 attempts
- Tua Tagovailoa, 152 attempts
With 26 more attempts without an interception, Stroud will hold this record. Not a perfect stat for predicting career success, no interception streaks can often be a fluky run of good luck. Stroud’s metrics are not overly dominant in the way he passes the ball. According to Next Gen Stats, he is middle of the road in his percentage of throws into tight windows and his completion percentage over expectation.
The Pick
Stroud could still set the record for attempts without a pick and still finish this game with an interception. The Falcons desperately need a win after losing their last 2 games, and they likely will need to do it on the defensive end. Atlanta intercepted rookie Bryce Young a few times in Week 1, so maybe these veterans will be able to confuse this rookie as well and get him to finally throw a pick in the NFL.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+120) at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
James Conner (Arizona Cardinals)
The Cardinals have been surprisingly effective with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback given the expectations were that this could be the worst offense in the league while Kyler Murray recovers from his ACL surgery.
The Cardinals have not turned the ball over since Week 1, and Dobbs has proven to be efficient with his limited passing attempts each week. But a consistent part of the offense has been running back James Conner, who rushed for at least 60 yards in each of the first 3 games this season. Conner also had 106 and 98 yards on the ground in the 2 home games.
Conner has a long history of injuries, so hopefully he can stay healthy this season. He is on pace for the highest yards per carry (5.1) and most rushing yards per game (79.5) in his career.
The Bengals have a terrible offense and a lousy run defense this season, getting pushed around by run-heavy teams like the Browns (Nick Chubb), Ravens (Lamar Jackson), and Titans (Derrick Henry).
Cincinnati ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed and 30th in yards per carry against. Only the Rams, who rank No. 1 in pass attempts, failed to rush for 170 yards against this Cincinnati defense.
Dobbs will have some rushing yards too in this game, but Conner could be in store for a big day that easily clears his over.
The Pick
If the Cardinals are going to pull off this upset, it will take a steady dose of Conner on the ground. Given the offensive identity that Arizona is establishing and the lack of big plays from the Bengals, it does not look like a game where the Cardinals will need to abandon the run. Conner will get his and the Cardinals have a great shot to win this game.
NFL Pick: James Conner Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-125) at Bovada
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
His standard is very high, but you can say Patrick Mahomes had one of the worst games of his career last week against the Jets with 203 passing yards and more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1).
But Mahomes usually bounces back from a bad game with a great one, and the Vikings are certainly an easier defense to play than the Jets. Minnesota was shredded in passing yards by Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Also, quarterbacks are completing 76.6% of their passes against Brian Flores’ defense, which only trails Denver (78.1%).
The other reason to like this matchup for Mahomes is that the Vikings blitz a league-high 57% of the time this year to try to compensate for the lack of talent in the secondary. It is unclear if Flores would blitz Mahomes this much, but he blitzed Herbert relentlessly in Week 3 and it led to Herbert’s first 400-yard passing game in his career.
Flores may not respect the wide receivers of the Chiefs and do his best to pressure Mahomes. But the problem is this Minnesota defense has the 4th-lowest pressure rate (17.1%), so the blitzing hasn’t been very effective for the Vikings.
In games where Mahomes has been blitzed more than 10 times, he has passed for over 283.5 yards in 18-of-20 games (90%).
The Pick
The spread in this one keeps heading in Minnesota’s favor, down from 5.5 to 3.5 points at some sportsbooks. But bet against Mahomes at your own risk. The best bet is that he goes off for another big passing day indoors against a shaky defense that will bend without trying to break. But Mahomes can break the Vikings even without a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 283.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
The legend of Brock Purdy continues to grow after he completed 20-of-21 passes against Arizona last week. He led the offense to 5 touchdowns in 6 possessions, so the 49ers flirted with offensive perfection last week.
Purdy is now 12-0 in games where he throws at least 20 passes. He has also thrown multiple touchdowns in 9-of-12 games, but the only defense to hold him without a touchdown pass or run in the same full game was Dallas in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs.
The Cowboys are also the only defense to hold Purdy under 20 points, excluding the 2022 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia where he injured his elbow on the opening drive and could not throw the ball.
The Cowboys still have a proud defense that returned 2 turnovers for touchdowns against the Patriots in a 38-3 win last week. But Purdy is no Mac Jones even if Kyle Shanahan once wanted Jones to be his quarterback and the team drafted Purdy as an afterthought last year.
Dallas has lost corner Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL, but this defense still has Micah Parsons up front. It was a 12-12 game in the 4th quarter of the playoffs before George Kittle made some incredible plays on the game-winning drive.
The Pick
Dallas is tied with Houston allowing the lowest amount of touchdown passes this season (2). The Cowboys may not hold the 49ers under 20 points again, but they should hold them under 30, something no team has done yet this season.
Throw in the way Christian McCaffrey is gobbling up rushing touchdowns at incredible rates. Purdy will be held under 1.5 passing touchdowns in this massive NFC battle to close Sunday’s NFL action.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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