Top NFL Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Week 18 NFL odds are loaded with backup quarterbacks starting games, and the sportsbooks are a little unsure of who is playing in some of these games. But we know the Lions want to win against Minnesota after Amon-Ra St. Brown was snubbed by Pro Bowl voters.
We also have a big game in New Orleans for the NFC South, an important Bears-Packers game in Green Bay, the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a win in Washington, and Tua Tagovailoa needs a big game to help Miami claim the AFC East in the final game of the season.
We found our favorite player props for Week 18, which you can always find at our main offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
The season did not start well, but Derek Carr is doing a nice job down the stretch. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in each of the last 4 games, something he did just 3 times in Weeks 1-13. It may be too late for the Saints to win the NFC South, but they have a shot if they win this game, and if the Buccaneers slip up in Carolina.
The Week 12 loss in Atlanta was a tough game for Carr and the offense as it did not finish any drive in the end zone despite moving the ball well all day. In fact, the Saints drove the ball at least 40 yards on 8-of-9 possessions, but they settled for 6 field goals in the 24-15 loss.
Since then, Carr has thrown 10 touchdowns and has a 111.0 passer rating. He is getting an inconsistent Atlanta defense that when it struggles, it really struggles. The Falcons just allowed 37 points in Chicago last week.
The Pick
Atlanta is not a bad run defense, and it has allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing touchdowns this year. The Saints had 444 yards against Atlanta in Week 12, the most yards the Falcons have allowed all season. Look for Carr to play better at home in this finale and finish some drives with touchdown passes this time to give the Saints a winning record and a chance at the playoffs.
NFL Pick: Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105) at Bovada
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Lions have a lot to be angry about this week. They were mad on Saturday night after their trick play for a 2-point conversion in Dallas didn’t work because of what they believe was an officiating blunder.
Then on Wednesday, the Pro Bowl rosters were announced and Detroit wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown did not make the cut. The competition was strong with CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown in the NFC, but some felt St. Brown had an argument over Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans. St. Brown has career highs this season with 112 catches, 1,371 yards, and 9 touchdowns.
St. Brown has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, so he’ll just have to make it 4 in a row to have his first double-digit touchdown season. He already scored a touchdown against the Vikings in Week 16, a game where he had 106 yards and 12 catches.
The Pick
The Lions are looking to vent some frustrations on the field as they get their final tune-up before the playoffs against the Vikings. The Minnesota defense likes to blitz and that can leave someone like St. Brown open for a lot of quick throws and opportunities for scores in this matchup.
To prove his point about being a Pro Bowler, we like the Lions to get St. Brown that 10th receiving touchdown in this game.
NFL Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130) at Bovada
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Lambeau Field
D.J. Moore (Chicago Bears)
As the Bears look to clinch another losing season (7-9) without the playoffs, and Justin Fields only ranks 22nd in QBR, it is okay to be lukewarm about their prospects going forward if they keep this coaching staff and quarterback in town.
But do not blame the mediocrity in Chicago on D.J. Moore this season. He did exactly what the team was hoping he could do in the trade from Carolina. He’s scored a career-high 9 touchdowns and has already set his career high with 1,300 receiving yards.
Moore has had a few monster games this year, but none topped his 230 yards and 3 touchdowns against Washington in October. But even last week in snow flurries, he had 159 yards and a score against the Falcons, his old NFC South rival.
The Pick
Moore needs a big game against Green Bay, a defense he only had 2 catches for 25 yards against in Week 1 when the Bears still looked offensively clueless in the passing game. Things have improved, Fields has improved a bit, and Moore is ready for targets and production.
The Packers have been allowing a lot of plays to opposing passing games this year, and Moore should get the volume this time around to go over 66.5 yards, something he has done 7 times this season.
NFL Pick: D.J. Moore Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at FedExField
Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders)
Will we ever get to see Terry McLaurin play with a good quarterback in Washington? It really didn’t happen this season, as Sam Howell has struggled in his 1st year as a starter.
McLaurin has quietly had a solid career despite the turmoil in Washington. He has reached at least 900 receiving yards in all 5 of his seasons, and he only needs 54 yards in this game to reach 1,000 yards for the 4th year in a row.
McLaurin only caught 4-of-11 targets for 50 yards in Dallas on Thanksgiving, but the Cowboys are a whole different beast at home compared to the road this year.
Even in his career, McLaurin has gone over 60 yards in 3-of-4 home games against Dallas. The only time he didn’t was in 2021 when he played 49% of the targets and left the game early due to injury before he made a catch.
McLaurin’s had at least 62 yards and a touchdown in his other 3 home games against Dallas, and the Cowboys are not as dominant against top receivers this year without Trevon Diggs (ACL).
DK Metcalf (134 yards and 3 touchdowns), Amon-Ra St. Brown (90 yards and a touchdown), A.J. Brown (94 yards), and Tyreek Hill (99 yards) have all had big games as No. 1 wide receivers against this Dallas defense since McLaurin faced them on Thanksgiving.
The Pick
The targets and opportunities should be there for McLaurin again. The incentive to get those last 54 yards (and then some) for another 1,000-yard season should also be there. McLaurin has gone over 59.5 yards in 7-of-16 games this year, and we like him to do so in this matchup to keep up with that Dallas offense.
NFL Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
The timing is not in Miami’s favor right now. It is not looking good for Jaylen Waddle to play in this game, Raheem Mostert is trying to come back from an injury too, and Tyreek Hill was seen in a walking boot on TV while his house was on fire this week.
Oh yeah, the Bills are 10-2 against Miami with Josh Allen at quarterback, and this game is for the division title. Also, the Dolphins have yet to score more than 22 points in any of their big games this year against the Ravens (lost 56-19), Eagles (lost 31-17), Chiefs (lost 21-14), and the Bills (lost 48-20).
Tua Tagovailoa has only thrown multiple touchdowns in 8-of-16 games this year, but that has to do with Mostert rushing for 18 touchdowns to lead the league. But the concern this week for Tua, beyond the injuries to those around him, is that he has usually struggled with Buffalo’s defense.
Tua is 1-5 as a starter against the Bills, and he has only thrown multiple touchdowns in 1-of-6 games against Buffalo. He has as many interceptions (5) as he has touchdown passes against Buffalo in his career since 2020.
The Pick
This game should have a defensive look to it given the playoff atmosphere with the division title up for grabs. Buffalo also needs it more than Miami, which is still guaranteed a playoff spot and will hopefully be healthier in another week. The Bills are the team that could be desperate and facing elimination Sunday night, so it’s not the end of the world if Tua doesn’t lead a bunch of touchdown drives here.
But we are playing the matchup, the history with Buffalo, and that Miami is lacking weapons right now as they face a strong defense that knows them well. Also, Mostert could return and he or De’Von Achane can contribute rushing touchdowns, another reason to believe the under is the right call on Tua’s touchdown passes in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.