What do you do when you’re sick? Well, you either ride out the storm, hoping you’ll get better, or you see a doctor. I have opted to take the former route, but my handicapping illness has gotten so severe that I decided a professional was needed.
Thus, after another 1-2 ATS week, I decided to call the doctor. Not just any doctor, mind you. No, he doesn’t have all those fancy degrees on the wall, but he is a man of letters. I can only be referring to PSD…the Point Spread Doctor.
My handicapping platelets are so low that I decided to seek the counsel of a true professional. So, if you’ve been tailing me, you have my condolences, but help is on the way. If you’ve been fading me, loan me a few bucks, will ya?
It’s Week 18, and the playoffs are looming. Time for a new beginning and a fresh new outlook. I’ve conversed with PSD at length, taken copious notes, and am now operating as a vessel to disseminate his wisdom. Let’s get to our NFL picks for Week 18 as we take a new tact in what has been a spectacularly dismal handicapping season.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 20-33 ATS (-60.94 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 18 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks are out of my control. I have handed the reins over to a man I trust and am simply hoping for the best because it can’t get much worse.
The NFL picks for Week 18 are all favorites, which makes me cringe just a wee bit. But let’s also not forget that the final week of the season can be very much a wild card, with teams pulling starters in preparation for the postseason, or eliminated teams having already mentally checked out to some sunny destination waiting for them once the final whistle is blown.
Grab your brooms and prepare for a sweep!
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2½)
Saturday, January 3 – 4:30 PM ET
The Bucs are in the midst of a shame spiral, having lost seven of their last eight games and failing to cover in each and every one of those contests. And yet, the good doctor says the Carolina Cats are the cure that ails them.
Well, the Panthers have been no bargain either, alternating straight-up and ATS wins and losses dating back to October 19th. If that pattern holds, then expect Carolina to get the win and the cover this week after they dropped a 27-10 decision to the Seahawks last week and assaulted my bankroll in the process.
But patterns are made to be broken. Even a train stops, right? Well, according to the good doctor, the Bucs should win this battle for division supremacy after the Panthers handed them a 23-20 loss earlier in the season. But this time the venue has shifted to the Ray Jay, home of the Tampa Bay Bucs, and it’s going to be an experienced veteran quarterback like Baker Mayfield versus a not-ready-for-primetime Bryce Young.
The Panthers have no offense to speak of, and they rank 27th in total yards, 28th in yards/play, 15th in yards/rush, 26th in passing yards, and 27th in scoring. Look, the Bucs are no great shakes, but at least they have an experienced quarterback with flashes of brilliance while also employing a trio of fleet-footed phantoms in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka, who are all now healthy.
Let’s lay the small number and back the Bucs.
Expert Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs -2½ (-113) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday, January 4 – 1:00 PM ET
Well, look who decided to arrive fashionably late to the party. That’s right, the Saints and Falcons are now winning football games, but because of their early-season malaise, both are out of the playoff picture with nothing to gain but a win over a division rival.
There are two reasons why Atlanta is the pick in this one. First, Kirk Cousins is finally healthy, and he’s got his mojo back. But an even bigger reason is because of Atlanta’s speed merchant, the scintillating Bijan Robinson. Did you see what he did to the Rams last week? He only ran for 195 yards with a rushing and receiving touchdown.
The last time these teams met, Atlanta claimed a 24-10 victory six weeks ago as two-point road underdogs. There is no reason why they can’t do this again, at home, against the Saints’ 23rd-ranked run-stop unit. Let’s back the Birds in this one.
Expert Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3 (-118) for 4 units at Bookmaker
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (+3½)
Sunday, January 4 – 1:00 PM ET
The Cowboys opened as a six-point favorite in this one, but that number has plunged to -3½ as of this midweek writing. There are several reasons why the money is coming in on Big Blue, but I suspect this will bounce back up a bit by kickoff.
The right side is Dallas, and it’s because of the teams’ four units (offense and defense); the Dallas offense is the one that is so far superior to New York’s that it’s worth laying north of a field goal. The last time these teams met, the Boys claimed a 40-37 overtime win at Jerry’s World.
But the venue won’t matter because the Giants are putrid. They finally broke their nine-game drought with a win over the listless Las Vegas Raiders. So, that was New York’s Super Bowl, and they are probably still reading their press clippings.
Watch the Cowboys lasso the Giants and win this one by double digits.
Expert Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3½ (-103) for 2 units at Bookmaker
The Woodman’s Picks (12-5 ATS)
It didn’t take long for the Woodman to rebound from one of his rare losses. Last week he pivoted, took a big favorite, a highly uncharacteristic shift in strategy from his penchant for prodigious pups, and—voila—the Patriots crushed the Jets, easily covering the 13 ½ point impost.
It’s just that easy for him this year. The man has now covered a dozen of his 17 NFL picks, producing a 70.5% handicapping rate. Consider me dumbstruck and slack-jawed.
Okay, well, this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately kind of business, and with that, the Woodman is imploring all of his acolytes to bet the farm on the LA Chargers!
The Woodman’s Week 18 NFL Pick: Chargers +12½ (-110) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 17 Bets Now
The NFL picks for Week 18 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Bucs, Falcons, and Cowboys games may not be around by gametime.
That’s why you must obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks Week 18, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
