So, how ya doin’? What brings you to our little virtual neighborhood? Been here before? Well, if you have, then you know this is where NFL bets go to die. If you haven’t, it’s never too late to hop aboard the fade train. Welcome, one and all!
Okay, so you know we’ve been struggling through the worst season ever, and it only got worse last week as we went 0-3 ATS and dropped 11.02 units. I need a winner like a hemophiliac needs a blood transfusion. And do you know what the worst part is?
Well, no, check that, the worst part is losing all this friggin’ money. But besides that, I take hours researching these miserable picks, and I’d be better off throwing a dart at the schedule. If you’ve been tailing me this season, then you have my condolences. If you’ve been fading me, well, maybe lend me a few bucks, will ya?
So, with that, all we can do is keep showing up and hope that the tide will eventually turn instead of drowning us. If you want to check out BMR’s proprietary algorithm, this week’s best NFL picks are available as well.
Let’s get to our NFL picks Week 16 and hope for the best.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 17-30 ATS (-60.02 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 16 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks have to be better than last week’s. My NFL picks for Week 16 are based on favorable matchups in the home stretch of the season and which teams have already made vacation plans after Week 18.
After reviewing the NFL odds here at Bookmakers Review, we’re looking to pounce on the best numbers that will give some semblance of an advantage. We need all the help we can get, believe me.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (+10)
Sunday, December 21 – 1:00 PM ET
If this doesn’t have all the makings of a trap game for the Bills, then I don’t know what does. First, Buffalo rallied from a 21-point deficit to beat the Patriots and is now within striking distance of another AFC East title. Second, they will face a weak team this week, fresh off that 35-31 shootout victory over a divisional rival. Third, next week they have a date with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.
This is the proverbial trap game, and yet the public is betting on them like they’re reading Monday morning’s newspapers, as evidenced by the line bumping up from Buffalo -9 to -10 as of this writing. Oh, did I mention the Bills are on the road?
Sure, the Browns looked lousy last week, but they still have Myles Garrett, who hunts quarterbacks like a fat guy hunts cheeseburgers. Let’s grab the dime and back the Browns.
Expert Pick: Cleveland Browns +10 (-103) for 3 units at Bookmaker
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins (+2)
Sunday, December 21 – 1:00 PM ET
Last week, Joe Burrow evinced images of Akili Smith and the Cincinnati Bungles of yesteryear. Burrow threw for 225 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks in his team’s 24-0 defeat at the hands of the Ravens. Burrow didn’t show up, and neither did his team.
But that’s not who Joe Burrow is, and he will get an opportunity to atone for his sins when the Bengals travel to Miami to meet the Dolphins and their new quarterback, Quinn Ewers, replacing the benched Tua Tagovailoa.
Speaking of Joe Burrow, here are a few stats:
- Burrow is 45-24 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown
- Burrow is 19-9 ATS after a loss
Neither team is going to the playoffs, but Cincinnati is the superior team when healthy. This defense will be able to feast on a seventh-round rookie in Ewers. I think we’ve got the public tuning out the Bengals, but I love laying a short number with a much better team.
Back the Bengals on Sunday and watch them blow the Fish out of the water.
Expert Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (-7)
Sunday, December 21 – 4:25 PM ET
Over his last few games, Aaron Rodgers has looked like the man we used to know. He’s been in charge and livin’ large, but that will come to an abrupt end in Motown this weekend. The Steelers played on Monday night and are therefore working on a short week while also likely missing their All-Pro defensive end, T.J. Watt. The Lions offense will tear the Steelers defense to shreds both through the air and on the ground with Jahmyr Gibbs.
Although Rodgers has been playing well of late, this Lions defense, albeit unspectacular, will provide a much sterner test than what he has been facing, particularly when considering they will be working from a deficit and will become too reliant on the pass while abandoning the run.
Let’s lay the touch and back the Cats.
Expert Pick: Detroit Lions -7 (-108) for 4 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Picks (11-4 ATS)
When it’s going bad, it’s going bad. If you don’t believe me, just ask me. However, when it’s going good, it’s going good. And if you don’t believe me, just ask the Woodman. Case in point, the Woodman got the Titans +13½ and don’t cha know they lost 37-24 to the 49ers?
Now, I’m no mathlete, but after plugging the equation into my IBM Big Blue supercomputer, that comes out to a 13-point loss. However, if we’re getting +13½ then that, my friends, is yet another ATS cover for our man, the Woodman!
Our main man from parts unknown has now covered in 11 of 15 games, and he’s telling everyone who will listen to bet Old Man Rivers on Monday night and watch the Indianapolis Colts cover as 6-point home hounds to the 49ers.
The Woodman’s Week 16 NFL Pick: Colts +6 (-110) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 16 Bets Now
The NFL picks for Week 16 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Browns, Bengals, and Lions games may not be around by gametime.
That’s why you must obtain the sharpest line available, so make sure your account is funded and ready to go!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 16, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
