NFL Pick: Dolphins-Chargers Under 51 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The 2023 NFL season gets underway with a good mixture of division games (8) and non-conference games (4) dominating the Week 1 schedule. There is also a game between the Chargers and Dolphins that could already be key for the wild-card race in the AFC.
With that in mind, Bookmakers Review is proud to introduce its NFL computer predictions, a new product that will help you handicap in a smarter way.
Today we are looking at the best bets derived from those final score predictions for Week 1, and which of the best offshore sportsbooks is offering a good price for these numbers.
Eagles Start NFC Title Defense in New England
Coming off a Super Bowl loss, the Eagles are still the favorite to return to the Super Bowl for the NFC this year, and they are a slight favorite over Dallas to win the NFC East. No team has won the NFC East in consecutive seasons since the Eagles in 2001-04. Meanwhile, the Patriots are projected to finish last in the AFC East for the first time since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000.
The Eagles are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 45 points.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Cruise Control?
On their way to an 8-0 start last year, the Eagles had most games on cruise control after halftime. They never trailed after halftime until their first loss of the year against Washington. This would change a bit in the 2nd half of the season, but the Eagles were still 16-2 in the games started by Jalen Hurts.
The only ways to beat the Eagles last year were to make them turn the ball over 4 times like Washington and Dallas did or get a return touchdown like the Saints and Chiefs did. That’s without mentioning doing well on some critical 3rd downs too.
The Eagles had no real flaws, and they maintained much of a deep roster on both sides of the ball, including the addition of rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter.
A Real Coordinator
The Patriots will hopefully be better on offense now that they have a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien instead of Matt Patricia. But Mac Jones did not impress last season, and he is only 4-16 as a starter when the Patriots allow more than 14 points in a game.
New England also did not do a great job of upgrading the offense with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, and Ezekiel Elliott joining the depth at wide receiver, tight end, and running back, respectively. No real needle movers in 2023.
The Eagles will also look for some payback on JuJu after losing to him in the Super Bowl. He had 53 yards in that game, but his biggest contribution was drawing a holding penalty on James Bradberry on 3rd down, leading to the game-winning field goal with seconds left.
The Pick
The Eagles were picked apart by skilled passers under old coordinator Jonathan Gannon, but the Patriots do not have that kind of passing game anymore like when they had Tom Brady. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is also not one for the close wins. Since 2021, 21-of-25 wins for the Eagles have been by at least 4 points.
The only starting quarterback the Patriots beat last year who wasn’t a backup, benched, or injured during the game was Jared Goff of the Lions. With a much tougher schedule staring them down this year, look for Hurts and the Eagles to be the first team to hand the Patriots a convincing loss. Take the Eagles to cover for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Eagles 29 – Patriots 21
NFL Pick: Eagles -3½ (-106) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Miami Gets a Rematch with the Chargers
In what could be a big game for tie-breaking procedures at the end of the year, the Dolphins travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. Both teams have new defensive coordinators, but the Dolphins will not have new corner Jalen Ramsey (injury) available for a few more months.
The Chargers are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 51 points.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Rematch
Despite winning 10 games last year, the Chargers only beat one team that did not lose at least 10 games, and that was Miami. It was an unexpected 23-17 triumph for the defense as Tua Tagovailoa, who led the NFL in most passing efficiency categories in 2022, was just 10-of-28 passing for 145 yards that night. It was part of a 4-game slide for the Dolphins, while the Chargers embarked on their best 4-game winning streak and defensive play under coach Brandon Staley.
This rematch should be interesting as both teams improved their coordinators with the Chargers hiring Kellen Moore to run their offense after a good run in Dallas, and the Dolphins called on a veteran in Vic Fangio to lead this defense.
Premiere Matchup
That is the premiere matchup even if it was the other side of the ball that largely dictated last year’s outcome. But with the teams warming up to new coordinators and playing a low-scoring game last year, it still looks like a good bet to take the under in this one.
Fangio will try to make the Chargers one-dimensional again like they were last year when Justin Herbert attempted 51 passes and Austin Ekeler only had 15 carries for 45 yards.
The over is 9-11 in the Herbert era when the Chargers are a home favorite.
The Pick
While the Dolphins should be better on offense this time, they were hit or miss in Mike McDaniel’s rookie season. Miami had no games where it scored just 22-to-28 points last year.
That is the range our computer score predicts in this one, but instead of trusting the road team to pull out a close one against an evenly matched team, the under 51 (Sunday’s highest total) is the best pick here.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 26 – Chargers 23
NFL Pick: Under 51 (-110) at BetAnySports
Jaguars Seek AFC South Dominance in Indianapolis
The Jaguars were surprise winners of the AFC South, a division the Colts were favored to win going into last season. But the Colts’ season quickly spiraled out of control while the Jaguars finished hot and even won a playoff game.
The Jaguars are a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Speak From Experience
Trevor Lawrence can speak from experience how hard it is to play as a rookie in Week 1 in the NFL. He was a more polished, more hyped prospect in 2021 than Anthony Richardson is for the Colts, but against a Houston team that would finish 4-13 with a bottom-tier defense, Lawrence passed for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his NFL debut. His team lost 37-21.
We already know the Colts are without running back Jonathan Taylor, who may never play another down for the team given his contract dispute. But for now, injury is why he is on the PUP list and out for at least 4 games.
New Challenges
Richardson is going to face a defensive front that returns most starters from last year. The Jaguars allowed just 22 points in their last 3 regular-season games in 2022. They shut out the Colts 24-0 in Week 2, though they did lose a 34-27 shootout in Indianapolis where this game will take place.
But the 2023 Jaguars have Calvin Ridley to beef up the offense and help Lawrence to a higher tier this season. The defense is expecting bigger things from Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft. They still have the likes of Josh Allen and Foyesade Oluokun (the NFL’s tackle leader the last 2 years) to make Richardson’s debut an ugly one.
Having said that, there is an alarming trend to point out. Since 2009, Week 1 road favorites in division games are just 5-22 ATS, including a 2-10 ATS record when the spread is at least 4 points.
The Pick
Maybe worse, these favorites are 9-16-2 SU (.370) in these games. This is why Week 1 is always so unpredictable, and the 2023 season may be more unpredictable than usual given the fact that 15-of-32 teams have a starting quarterback with fewer than 16 starts for their current team. More than a quarter of the league is starting a quarterback this week who does not even have 16 starts in the NFL period.
But with the Jaguars having an edge at running, passing, and an aggressive, experienced coach in Doug Pederson taking on a rookie in Shane Steichen, this should be a strong debut for Jacksonville as it hopes to repeat as division champions. Trust the Jaguars to cover on the road.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 29 – Colts 20
NFL Pick: Jaguars -4½ (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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