The Super Bowl MVP will be on the team that wins the Super Bowl, and that team will not be Seattle.
Sam Darnold relies heavily on the deep passing game and on play-action passing, but the Patriots allow a 68.9 passer rating against deep passes and, since Week 10, are the best against play-action passes according to DVOA.
New England also has the fourth-best rush defense. On offense, Drake Maye benefits from finally facing a defense without a top-caliber pass rush. He and his offensive coordinator will be eminently comfortable with Seattle’s very high use of Cover 2. Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback-heavy award.
The last three Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks. So, Maye merits an investment. But non-quarterbacks have won the award, too. In this article, I will discuss my three best bets for Super Bowl MVP.
Best Super Bowl MVP Bets for Patriots vs. Seahawks
I’m going to dive into why I think Drake Maye, Hunter Henry, and Milton Williams are the best bets for Super Bowl MVP.
Super Bowl MVP: Drake Maye (+230) at BetOnline
People are disinclined to trust Drake Maye after what they saw from him in his latest games, but two decisive variables were in play in those games that will be missing from this game:
- Pass Rush: Seattle does not have the edge-rushing talent or the general ability to accumulate sacks that Maye’s latest opponents had. The Seahawks rank 13th in sack rate.
- Weather: In this game, Maye will get to play in a warm environment.
Whereas New England’s most recent opponents were built to limit the AFC’s top quarterbacks, who are mobile, Seattle, with its reliance on interior pressure, is built to limit the NFC’s top quarterbacks, who aren’t so mobile.
Maye, with his legs, will pose a new threat to the Seahawks defense. He will thrive through the air in two ways:
- By making use of his elite efficiency, which is evident in his 72 percent completion rate, to methodically sustain drives and exploit Seattle’s determination to limit deep balls.
- By leveraging his team’s great depth at the wide receiver position, as the Buccaneers did when they scored 38 points on Seattle.
Maye doesn’t often achieve huge amounts of passing yards, but two recent Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks did not even exceed 202 passing yards. Maye’s superior efficiency will secure him the award.
Super Bowl MVP: Hunter Henry (+10000) at BetOnline
While Maye is my favorite investment, the fact that he often doesn’t put up big numbers and the fact that the odds are so attractive for other offensive threats make it worthwhile to place additional wagers.
In particular, Maye’s top tight end target deserves an investment. While quarterbacks usually win the award, two of the last seven Super Bowl MVPs were wide receivers.
While Hunter Henry is a tight end, the point is that pass-catchers can win this award.
Henry is a sneaky good investment because Seattle’s weakness on defense is defending tight ends. In the regular season, the Seahawks allowed the fifth-most receptions and the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Henry can be a big part of his team’s offense, as evident when he accumulated 64 receiving yards and the team’s only receiving touchdown in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers. This Sunday’s matchup is just right for him.
Super Bowl MVP: Milton Williams (+20000) at BetOnline
A defensive player last won the Super Bowl MVP award when Von Miller, in Super Bowl 50, accumulated six tackles, 2.5 sacks, and one pass defended. Milton Williams has had a two-sack game in this postseason. He also collected two sacks in last year’s Super Bowl.
His outlook in Sunday’s game is particularly solid given the weakness of Seattle’s interior offensive line, which is evident in the very high pressure rate that guard Anthony Bradford has allowed in this postseason. Williams feasts on opposing guards.
Sam Darnold’s proclivity for play-action passing and his reliance on passing that will be made heavy by New England’s solid run defense and by the New England offense’s success will ensure that New England’s pass pressure plays a big role in this matchup, just like it did when the Patriots gave CJ Stroud the worst game of his life.
Williams’ consistency and matchup advantage make him the Patriots defender worth investing in.
Offshore Sportsbooks
You should sign up with multiple reputable sportsbooks so that you can line-shop and get the best number for each of your bets. For my best MVP bets, I relied on BetOnline.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
