NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Divisional Round kicks off Saturday with both No. 1 seeds in action following their bye week.
Lamar Jackson will look for his best playoff game yet against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Jordan Love has another huge upset in mind with the Packers taking on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offensive machine.
We dug through the main offshore sportsbooks to find our favorite player props and NFL odds for Saturday’s Divisional Round action. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
This is Lamar Jackson’s 1st postseason start since the 2020 season. He has had a lot of time to reflect on the past and the valid criticism for his performances this time of year. Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs, has more turnovers (7) than touchdowns (4), and he’s never led the Ravens to more than 20 points in any game.
While I would not call 2023 his best season, it is the best he’s played since 2019, and he ended this regular season with his best back-to-back performances against the 49ers and Dolphins. They were the only times this year he threw for over 225 yards and 2 touchdown passes in back-to-back games.
Back in Week 1 against Houston, Jackson completed 17-of-22 passes for 169 yards. That was his 2nd-lowest game this season in passing yards. But the Ravens won 25-9 and did not need to throw as much.
With the way rookie C.J. Stroud has improved since then and with Houston’s ability to score now, this should be more of an offensive game for the Ravens. Jackson should have to throw more and complete more passes than he did that day.
The Pick
In Week 1 against Houston, Jackson’s average pass only traveled 4.6 yards, his lowest depth this season. If he has a similar short-passing approach this week, that can help inflate his completions. If the game is much more offensive and closer this time as expected, then he should be able to get over 18.5 completions this time, something he has done in 50% of the games this year.
Also, he needs to prove himself with a big postseason performance. So we’ll take him to show off his passing in this matchup and hit this over.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 18.5 Pass Completions (-125) at Bovada
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
Just as we like Lamar Jackson to go over in completions, his favorite receiver Zay Flowers should have no problem going over 4.5 receptions.
It was Flowers’ NFL debut back in Week 1 when he faced Houston. He had a nice game that was a sign of things to come. Flowers finished with 9 catches for 78 yards, which is still his 2nd-most receiving yards in a game this year, and tied for his most receptions in a game.
Not all of Flowers’ catches against Houston gained positive yardage. Although it was a positive sign that they were willing to throw to him that much in his debut game.
The Pick
Flowers has gone over 4.5 catches in 9-of-16 games this year. It looks like he can still play the role of the No. 1 target this week. Tight end Mark Andrews has a shot to return to action, but he may be on a limited snap count if he does suit up.
We’ll trust Flowers to get open in a variety of ways against this defense and haul in over 4.5 catches for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) at Bovada
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
For our last pick in this game, C.J. Stroud led the NFL with a 1.0% interception rate. This is a remarkable feat for a rookie who was asked to carry his offense. One of our favorite prop picks early in the season was for Stroud to throw his 1st NFL interception, because that’s what you expect a young player to do in this league as he learns how fast the defenses can react.
But incredibly, we had to wait until Week 6 for the Saints to pick him off, and they even fumbled it right back to Houston on the same play. Stroud was intercepted 3 times against the Cardinals in Week 11, but he has not been picked since. He has only 5 interceptions all year, and he has been picked off in just 3-of-16 games.
The Texans have a league-low 14 takeaways, which is one of the reasons they have upset potential in Baltimore, a team that feasts on turnovers to set up the offense with the best starting field position this year.
But Stroud faced the Ravens in Week 1 on the road, and while you would have expected a rookie who threw 44 passes in that situation in a 25-9 loss would have turned it over like crazy, he had no picks. He did get sacked 5 times and lost a fumble, but his interception slate was clean.
The Pick
We like Stroud to get through another playoff game against a top defense without getting intercepted. The Baltimore defense is great, but it is not the 2000 Ravens. Six quarterbacks, including Stroud already, have thrown at least 20 passes and were not intercepted by Baltimore this season.
Gardner Minshew (44 attempts) and Matthew Stafford (41 attempts) both went into Baltimore and had no picks despite over 40 pass attempts in games that went to overtime. Trevor Lawrence also had 43 attempts without a pick. Justin Herbert’s only interception against Baltimore (on 44 attempts) was a Hail Mary before halftime.
But the main reason we like this for Stroud is the odds. He’s likely never been higher (-170) to throw a pick all year, so we will go against the grain and take the +130 odds that he won’t get intercepted.
But that does not guarantee a Houston upset or even a cover as Week 1 shows. He can still cough it up on sacks.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+130) at Bovada
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
If Jordan Love is indeed a Dallas Killer like Aaron Rodgers was, let’s hope Love can flip the script on how Rodgers’ playoff career went against the 49ers, who always frustrated him in big games.
Love has been playing at an MVP level for half the season now with the youngest team in the league.
He gets a tough matchup here on the road against the 49ers, but this defense is not historically dominant.
The 49ers also could look a little rusty in the early going after resting key starters in Week 18 and resting more for their bye week. Meanwhile, the Packers have been in playoff mode for weeks, so it is always interesting to see how that dynamic fares in the early portion of the game.
But a key to Green Bay’s success in Dallas was taking the ball 1st and putting the pressure on Dallas by scoring a touchdown right away. The Packers need the same mindset here as the 49ers are a very similar front-running team to Dallas, and the pressure should be on the home team that is nearly a 10-point favorite in this game.
Let Love be aggressive and dictate the game early. Love has done some of his best work on the road this year. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in 8-of-10 road games this season, including 3 touchdowns on just 21 attempts in Dallas last week.
The Pick
The 49ers have a great defense, but that didn’t seem to matter for Dallas and Cleveland last week in the playoffs. The 49ers have allowed 6 quarterbacks this season to throw multiple touchdowns, including 5 of them doing it in Levi’s Stadium. Even Joshua Dobbs (Cardinals) and Drew Lock (Seahawks) did it in San Francisco.
Whether it comes in the form of a shootout, a shocking upset, or a comeback attempt, we like Love to throw multiple touchdowns again in this game. He’s only done it in 9 of his last 10 games. We have come to expect it from him now after this historic turnaround for a young quarterback in his 1st year as a starter.
NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125) at Bovada
Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers)
We sometimes lose sight of Brandon Aiyuk in this offense with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. But it was Aiyuk who led the team with 75 catches and 1,342 receiving yards this year, a career year for the 4th-season wideout and best route runner on the team.
Despite the 27-0 lead last week in Dallas, the Green Bay defense is still not reliable. You saw how Dallas was able to throw for over 400 yards and get big numbers to their receivers by the end of the game. A lot of that reeked of garbage time, but the 49ers are more than capable of lighting this defense up, especially if corner Jaire Alexander is limited or out with another injury situation to monitor.
Aiyuk has caught over 4.5 passes in 9-of-16 games this season, including 5-of-7 home performances. The Cowboys held him to 4 catches in a blowout win for the 49ers, and Aiyuk only played long enough to record 3 catches in Week 18 against the Rams, a game where key starters rested. Aiyuk played a season-low 23 snaps in that one.
The Pick
If the 49ers are going to have a dominant offensive performance against a suspect defense, Aiyuk should be a key part of that. If the 49ers have to play from behind like Dallas last week, then Aiyuk again should be a big part of that. We’ll trust him at home with Purdy this week.
NFL Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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