NFL Pick: 2023 New York Jets Over 9½ Wins (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets are hoping to party like it’s 2010 this season. That 2010 season was Rodgers’ only Super Bowl appearance and win with Green Bay, and it was the last time the Jets were in the playoffs, losing in the AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.
That means a 12-year playoff drought in New York, the longest in team history. But Rodgers is the latest hope in turning things around for coach Robert Saleh, who is 11-23 in his first 2 seasons on the job.
The top offshore sportsbooks are buying into the hype as well. You will find the Jets favored to make the playoffs in a stacked 2023 AFC, and their over/under is 9.5 wins, only trailing the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East division, which could be the best in the NFL this year.
Slam Dunk?
This is not a slam dunk as it would have been a few years ago as Rodgers, who turns 40 in December, is coming off his worst season. The Jets having a passing game is also hard to wrap your head around, but it may be a perfect union for both parties if everything goes according to plan.
But after watching Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan lead two of the worst scoring teams in Denver and Indianapolis last year, nothing is safe in this league when a quarterback switches teams. Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams) will be the outliers in going to a new team and immediately winning a Super Bowl.
But as is always the case with Rodgers these days, there will be a lot of attention on this team this year. They just have to survive the early onslaught of the schedule.
The Changes That Matter
Even if you are not watching Hard Knocks on HBO, you may have heard Aaron Rodgers was traded to the Jets this offseason. It might be a big deal.
Aaron Rodgers: Start Spreading the Ball Around
The Jets had professional football’s first 4,000-yard passer with Joe Namath in 1967, but they have not had another since. Rodgers could do that for them, but he also had a career-low 217.4 passing yards per game last season, finishing with 3,695 yards in 17 games.
Rodgers was also under 7.0 yards per attempt for only the 2nd time in his career. His 91.1 passer rating was the lowest of his career. His 39.3 QBR at ESPN ranked 26th, which was easily his worst season ever. He was No. 1 in 2021 when he won his 4th MVP award.
Pay Cut
Rodgers already has taken a huge pay cut this year, and even plans to get some preseason action this weekend for the first time since 2018. Rodgers knows he has huge expectations of him with the way other legendary quarterbacks (Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, etc.) helped their new teams to a Conference Championship Game or Super Bowl in their first or second season.
There could be some concern that the Jets acquired a washed-up version of Rodgers, and their historical inability to field a good passing offense is going to make this a major disappointment in a loaded conference where you have to have a quarterback to be relevant right now.
But there are numerous reasons to think this change of scenery will be good for Rodgers, and he will return to top-tier status in 2023. Not breaking his thumb in Week 5 like he did last year would be a great start, but there are other factors at play here too.
A No. 1 Receiver
Rodgers’ worst statistical seasons in Green Bay were 2015 and 2022. What did they have in common? No true No. 1 receiver. Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason in 2015, and the Packers traded away Davante Adams a year ago while giving Rodgers some often-injured rookies and Sammy Watkins (who is always hurt).
This year, Rodgers should be back to having a legit No. 1 in Garrett Wilson, who was already solid as a rookie and will enjoy having a more accurate quarterback.
Rodgers is also coming to New York with familiar receivers, bringing Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb from the Packers with him. Not only will they have chemistry with Rodgers, but they should know the offense too as that should look familiar given the new coordinator.
Nathaniel Hackett: Good for Rodgers
While Nathaniel Hackett was a terrible head coach for Denver last year, he just may be a coach who is best served being a coordinator. Hackett was the offensive coordinator in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur when Rodgers won his back-to-back MVPs in 2020-21.
Hackett was hired by the Jets and should be a good asset for Rodgers in helping him get ready to play well early in the season.
Talented Backfield
Rodgers left a very good running back duo in Green Bay with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, but he could have a dependable running game with the Jets this year where he does not have to throw for 300 yards often.
The Jets get back Breece Hall, who looked very good as a rookie just before he tore his ACL. That is a concern that he may not be 100% this season, but just in case, the Jets also added Dalvin Cook from the Vikings, a player Rodgers is very familiar with as he tore up his Packers often.
The signing of Cook may not be the best sign for where Hall is, but the Jets have multiple options with this backfield, and Rodgers should be happy about that.
The offensive line is probably the most questionable position group on the team, but they have brought back the 3 veterans starting on the left side, and the right side is a couple of 1st-round picks by the team in recent years. It would be nice if Mekhi Becton can stay healthy for this team.
Rodgers’ Best Defense Since 2010?
One of the reasons Rodgers has not been back to the Super Bowl is the lack of elite defenses in Green Bay. That 2010 unit was fantastic, but things were downhill from there.
You do not need an elite defense to get to the Super Bowl in today’s NFL. The Chiefs just showed that. But you also cannot give up 31-to-44 points in NFC Championship Games like the Packers did in Rodgers’ last 3 title game losses. Getting ran over by Raheem Mostert for over 200 yards and 4 touchdowns is not something that should happen to this Jets defense.
The Hard Truth
The truth is defense is much less consistent from year to year than offense, but some defenses are able to sustain extended runs of success. This is where Saleh is supposed to be at his best, and the Jets have a very solid core of defenders, especially in the secondary led by Gardner.
Even if the Jets slipped to the 8-to-12 range on defense this year due to a tough schedule, this would still be arguably the 2nd-best defense of Rodgers’ career. That should give him more confidence for a playoff run.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Did the NFL’s schedule makers anticipate showing off Rodgers in New York this season? The schedule is ridiculously stacked in the first 6 weeks before the Jets have their bye:
- Week 1 vs. Buffalo Bills: We see the big division showdown right away on Monday night.
- Week 2 at Dallas Cowboys: The Jets start with the only 2 teams who ranked in the top 5 on offense and defense last season.
- Week 3 vs. New England Patriots: Can Rodgers help the Jets end this 14-game losing streak to New England?
- Week 4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Can we finally see an Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes game in the NFL? Health ruined the last two chances in 2019 and 2021.
- Week 5 at Denver Broncos: Denver is a tough place to play and expectations are also higher with Sean Payton coming back as coach.
- Week 6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Why not end this run with the best team in the NFC that was in the Super Bowl and knocked Rodgers out of a game with an injury last year?
You can already see the bad headlines should this team start 2-4 with this tough slate. You can also imagine the insane Super Bowl hype if they came out of this 5-1. But this early schedule before the bye is why you must stay strong on the Jets this year, because this team should be very good. The early schedule just may not show it in the record right away.
But after the bye week, the Jets’ toughest game is a trip to Buffalo in Week 11. Otherwise, you are talking about the games with Miami, a trip to the Giants, hosting the Chargers, and finishing the season in New England.
Over or Under?
The Jets can clean up with that post-bye schedule, and that’s the best prediction for their season to get them over 9.5 wins. They may not win the AFC East this year due to the early schedule, but the Jets can enter the playoffs as underdogs for your NFL picks, playing their best ball, and having a quarterback and defense.
We have not been able to say that about the Jets since the 1960s.
NFL Pick: 2023 New York Jets Over 9½ Wins (-140) at BetOnline
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On the Last Season of “The Jets”: If You Have 3 Quarterbacks, You Have None
One of the most amusing parts about the Jets adding Aaron Rodgers is that New York had arguably their most impressive win of their 2022 season at the expense of Rodgers’ Packers. It was a dominant 27-10 win in Green Bay, the worst home loss in a regular-season game in Rodgers’ career that he started and finished.
The Wins
The Packers were obviously not a good team last year, but the 2022 New York Jets’ other wins included:
- A miracle 2-touchdown comeback in Cleveland where Nick Chubb just had to go down at the 1-yard line to win the game for the Browns.
- A 10-point comeback in Pittsburgh (without T.J. Watt) led by Zach Wilson
- A 40-17 win over the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).
- A 16-9 win over the Broncos with Brett Rypien at quarterback instead of Russell Wilson.
- A 20-17 win over the Bills in a game where Josh Allen injured his elbow late and still delivered a perfect deep ball to Gabe Davis that was dropped in field-goal range.
- A 31-10 win over the Bears, the No. 32 pass offense, No. 32 pass defense, and team with the worst record (3-14) in the league.
After a 6-3 start, the Jets only were able to beat the Bears the rest of the season. There were tough losses that could have gone either way too. Braxton Berrios dropped a touchdown on 4th-and-goal in the end zone against the Vikings in a 27-22 loss. The Lions threw a 51-yard touchdown pass on a 4th-and-1 to win 20-17 in New York, a game that ended with a missed 58-yard field goal.
Where’s the Offense?
But the Jets only scored 15 points in their last 3 games combined. As is usually the case with this franchise, the quarterback position and passing game let them down. You could see the groundwork of a really good team if it had a quarterback.
The draft class was outstanding.
- Corner Sauce Gardner was even better than advertised, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year and being named First-Team All-Pro with a league-high 20 passes defended.
- Wide receiver Garrett Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Year with 1,103 yards, and he had a 100-yard receiving game with all 3 starting quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White).
- If Wilson did not win that award, running back Breece Hall may have before his ACL injury ended his season after 7 games.
The Jets ranked in the top 4 in many defensive stats. Even just an average quarterback should have been able to get this team to a winning record. Now the Jets will hope adding a first-ballot Hall of Famer can take them to where they want to go.
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