MLB Playoff Best Bets for Wednesday: Yankees Cover Run Line While Staying Alive
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LT Profits
- October 1, 2025
We had a disappointing 1-2 night to begin the MLB Playoffs after finishing the regular season 97-79-4 over our last 180 picks with quite a few underdog winners and no favorites higher than the -130s.
We look to bounce back on Wednesday with three more best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of a run line and total in Game 2 of the Red Sox vs. Yankees series and a total in the Reds vs. Dodgers matchup.
As always, we also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, October 01, 2025 – 06:08 PM EDT
We cashed in a nice underdog winner with the Red Sox in Game 1 here in the Bronx last night, but we expect the Yankees to stay alive in this series in emphatic fashion on Wednesday.
We are betting on both the Bombers on the run line with Carlos Rodon facing Brayan Bello, as well as the Over.
Rodon’s Best Season as a Yankee, Great Current Form
The Yankees were criticized for signing Rodon to a massive contract in 2023 due to injury concerns, which indeed plagued his first two years in New York. He finally had a fully healthy season this year, though, and had the type of season the Yankees expected when they signed him.
Carlos finished 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 3.89 xFIP while making 33 starts covering 195.1 innings. He displayed one of our favorite combinations with a very good strikeout rate of 9.35/9 and groundball rate of 43.5%, thanks to a biting slider rated 109 on Stuff+, complemented by his fastball rated 101.
Best of all, Rodon may be pitching his best ball of the entire season right now, seemingly unaffected by a career-high in innings pitched.
He finished the regular season by allowing three runs or less in each of his last 10 starts, in fact allowing two earned runs of less in nine of them with an elite groundball rate of 51.5% over the 10 outings.
Bello ERA Not Supported by Weak Peripherals
Some may feel that Bello deserved better than an 11-9 record this year, given his career-best 3.35 ERA after not posting an ERA lower than 4.24 in any prior season.
However, we feel that it is the ERA that is deceptive, as his xFIP was more than a full run higher at 4.39. The ERA was helped by a low .268 BABIP allowed, and that was with a lot of balls in play with Bello not being a big strikeout pitcher.
In fact, Brayan has a poor K/BB ratio of 6.70/3.19 per nine innings, as well as a modest soft/hard contact ratio of 13.1%/30.8% that makes the BABIP allowed look even luckier. And the low K-Rate was not a fluke either, given Bello’s dismal swinging-strike rate of 8.6%.
His slightly below average Stuff+ of 97 overall does not support the ERA either.
Now, he must deal with a Yankees offense that tied for the Major League lead in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 118.
Betting the Side
We see the Yankees getting to an overachieving Bello early and often while desperately trying to extend this series to a Game 3, as well as Rodon to continue his good current form. While we have no interest in the huge money line here, we are betting on the Yankees -1.5 run line with nice + odds attached to it.
Betting the Total
As mentioned, we expect the Yankees to tee off on Bello with their season on the line.
However, while we expect Rodon to pitch well, remember that the New York bullpen has a 5.13 ERA since September 1st, which could lead to a few late Boston garbage runs. With this posted total seemingly light, we are backing the Over here as well.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, October 01, 2025 – 09:08 PM EDT
After a wild 10-5 win by the Dodgers over the Reds here in Los Angeles last night, we are looking for the pitchers to take center stage in Game 2. We are supporting the Under when Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes on Zack Littell on Wednesday.
Yamamoto Top 7 in ERA, xFIP and WAR
Yamamoto had an injury-plagued rookie season in the majors last year after coming over from Japan, but he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in his first full season this year at the still relatively young age of 27.
He pitched much better than his 12-8 record, as he finished fourth in the league in ERA at 2.49, sixth in xFIP at 3.05, and seventh in Pitching WAR at 5.0.
And it is easy to see why, with Yoshinobu combining an excellent strikeout rate of 10.42/9 with ranking eighth in the majors with a 52.8% groundball rate.
He has a nice variety with four pitches he threw at least 11% of the time this season, complementing his 95.4 MPH fastball with three secondary pitches rated 104 or higher in Stuff+, and he had great precision with a Location+ of 110.
He is facing a disappointing Cincinnati offense that ranked 26th in the league in wRC+ vs. righties at 93.
Littell Key Part of Staff That Led Playoff Drive
While the Reds were disappointing offensively, it was their pitching that keyed their drive to the playoffs, with Littell being part of that after being acquired from the Rays at the trading deadline.
Granted, he did not quite fulfill the higher expectations we had for him early in the season. However, he did finish 10-8 with a commendable 3.81 ERA in his two stops combined.
That included allowing three earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 starts in a Cincinnati uniform, including allowing two runs or fewer in five of them. Zack’s forte has always been impeccable control, and that continued this season.
He just had the second-lowest walk rate in the majors at 1.54/9, just marginally behind the probable AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal at 1.52/9. As you might expect, Littell boasted a nice Location+ of 104.
Interestingly, this will also be Littell’s first-ever start against the Dodgers, as he never faced them during the regular season of a career that began in 2020. That is a situation that usually favors the pitcher.
So, with Yamamoto being an elite starter facing a struggling offense and Littell being consistently good for the Reds while facing an offense that has never seen him, we are going Under the total in Game 2.
More Picks from Our Experts
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
