Michigan and Colorado State get the NCAA Tournament started as one of the first games of Thursday’s full slate of action. The Wolverines were one of the big surprises of Selection Sunday, getting a bid and avoiding the play-in round, despite a 17-14 record on the year.
They’ll face 25-5 Colorado State in Indianapolis as the favorite, despite being seeded five spots worse. Let’s see what the NCAAB odds for this matchup tell us!
Michigan Wolverines vs. Colorado State Rams
Thursday, March 17, 2022 – 12:15 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Despite a 17-14 record, 11-9 in the Big Ten, Michigan received a No. 11 seed and a game in the round of 64. They’ll face No. 6 seed Colorado State in Indianapolis. The Rams finished 25-5 on the year, 14-4, and second place in the Mountain West Conference.
Despite the mismatch in records and a five-spot difference in seeds, Michigan has opened as the favorite over Colorado State, both with the oddsmakers and the statistical analysts.
Inconsistent Wolverines
Michigan opened the season ranked No. 6 in the top 25 and was considered on the shortlist for national title contention. The Wolverines never found their groove against one of the toughest schedules in the nation, however, struggling with inconsistency all year long.
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Michigan’s non-conference schedule ranked the eighth-most difficult in the nation, and playing in the meat grinder of the Big Ten pushed the overall strength of schedule up to the third-most difficult. That’s why the Wolverines got a pass for their less than glittering won-loss record.
Michigan gives the impression of a sleeping giant. Clearly, the roster is packed with talent, but the Wolverines have won three in a row just once this season and have gone 7-7 in their last 14 games.
That stretch of alternating wins and losses ended in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, when Michigan built a 17-point lead over Indiana, then blew it all and lost, putting the Wolverines squarely on the NCAA bubble.
That was Michigan’s first game in two weeks with head coach Juwan Howard on the sideline, after he served a five-game suspension.
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“We’re not the team that everybody thought we were gonna be at the start of the season but we still have that talent that everybody saw from the beginning of the season,” said Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson. “That raw, natural talent that really makes us a dangerous team in the tournament.”
Impressive Record
Colorado State won its first 11 games of the season and 16 of the first 17, including wins over Creighton (by 14), Saint Mary’s (by 16), and Mississippi State. The Rams ended the season almost as hot, winning nine of their last 10 before losing to San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament.
Colorado State is one of the top shooting teams in the country, at No. 18 in effective field goal percentage, No. 9 in two-point accuracy, and No. 69 from three. The Rams are an experienced team, with just one freshman among their top 10 players in the rotation to go with seven juniors and seniors.
Junior forward David Roddy leads the team with 19.4 ppg, to go with 7.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Junior guard Isaiah Stevens adds 14.9 ppg, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. The pair also lead the way for Colorado State from beyond the three-point arc.
Despite all that success, the Rams are in a bit of an offensive slump. Over their last six games, they’ve averaged less than 60 ppg and posted two of their four worst offensive efficiencies of the season.
That stretch also included a 5-for-22 performance from three in one game, as well as a 3-for-18 night.
The Pick
Michigan just missed the Final Four last year and has the nucleus of that team back. The Wolverines went 5-10 against Quad I teams this year, which explains their ugly record. Dickinson will be the best player on the floor and a matchup nightmare for the Rams.
Michigan is certainly capable of knocking off the better-seeded Rams, but giving up points seems excessive. It seems that everyone is picking the 11-seed to pull the “upset” in this game, which is usually a good time to go in the other direction.
For your NCAAB picks, look for Colorado State to hit its shots, control the pace and keep Michigan from feeding the post.
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State +2.5 (-112) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
