The Under will be a tempting MLB pick this Thursday when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, August 19, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
I love it when a plan comes together. Let’s take you back to last Friday’s game in Flushing between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers; with both teams lacking in value, we put the Over in our MLB picks, and we got paid when the Dodgers won 6-5 (Over 8 on the closing line). Delightful. Things should always work out that way.
“Walker Buehler Can’t Lose,” we boldly stated when the Dodgers hosted the San Francisco Giants on July 22. Buehler did his part, but the Giants scored four runs in the ninth (!) off L.A. closer Kenley Jansen to win 5-3 and cash in as +170 underdogs. Maybe the Dodgers can finish the job this time when they host the Mets. Are the defending champions worth a bet as –240 favorites on the overseas MLB lines?
Chalk Circle
We’d love to have some domestic odds to work with, but at press time, our preferred online sportsbooks have yet to hit the board – presumably because Los Angeles have yet to officially name their starter. Many books already have Buehler (3.13 FIP) pencilled to take the mound, though. And while his team does occasionally lose, it’s a rare enough event; the Dodgers are 16-8 in his 24 starts, including 10-4 since the start of June, when Buehler’s spin rate started to tumble following the crackdown on stickum.
Alas, all those wins have produced a mere 0.08 units in earnings for L.A. bettors. This team carries so much chalk, it absorbs all their betting value – and you’d think a team with a 17-21 record in 1-run games and 3-11 in extra innings would have some hidden value left over despite their success. Maybe they do: FiveThirtyEight project Los Angeles to win Thursday’s game 66 percent of the time (using a generic Dodgers starter as a placeholder), which works out to –194 using the infallible BMR Odds Converter.
Taijuan On
But what if Buehler does indeed start? He’s worth an additional 28 Elo points according to FiveThirtyEight, which should boost L.A.’s chances of victory to about 70 percent if we’re doing the math correctly. And that translates to a fair moneyline of –233. That’s pretty much where Thursday’s overnight odds stand. Now, as it happens, the official MLB.com listings have Buehler tentatively starting Friday’s matchup, so we’re not convinced he’ll get the nod Thursday night.
There is another Walker in the mix, though: Taijuan Walker (4.38 FIP), who will pitch for New York. If both Walkers start, it will be a rematch of their August 14 battle, which the Dodgers won 2-1 as –188 road faves. So let’s give an early recommendation for the Under, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
