The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the midst of a tough stretch of schedule and things don’t get any easier on Friday night with the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Doncic coming to town. Here is all you need to know for your NBA picks.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, March 25, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Target Center
Wolves Probably Headed for Play-In
Minnesota has had a fantastic season in a tougher Western Conference. I don’t think anyone expected them to be this good with their young core group and that is especially true on the defensive end.
The Wolves’ home defense has been amazing this season, but as we approach the end of the regular season, you can tell Minnesota’s young legs are starting to get tired.
While their offense has carried them in some games lately, they couldn’t overcome a second-half onslaught by the Suns two nights ago after a pretty good effort in the first half on defense.
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Against top-tier teams, Minnesota can’t just rely on their offense and I know Chris Finch is probably trying to convince his players of exactly that.
Now welcoming in the Mavs just a few days after losing a close one in Dallas, the Wolves are-3 home favorites at the NBA odds.
After missing the last game, it looks as if Luka Doncic will return on Friday which will be a big problem for this Wolves defense.
That being said, I think Minnesota is up for the challenge with their backs against the wall and important playoff seeding on the line.
The Sharp Pick
As I mentioned two days ago, the Wolves own the league’s third-best home defense, allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s only behind the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.
However, in the first half at home, the Wolves are still top in the league by a wide margin, allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions.
While that number has been going the wrong direction lately, they are still 3.7 points better defensively at home first halves than the Celtics, which is impressive, to say the least. Add in Dallas’s 13th ranked road first-half defense and their 24th ranked pace in road first halves and you have a nice recipe for an under here in the first half for your best bets.
The Wolves and Dallas are still battling for playoff positioning and too many more losses will put the Wolves out of the top six and into the play-in tournament.
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Finally, in three first halves this season against the Wolves, Dallas has held them to an average of 53 points and 105.3 points per 100 possessions.
If Dallas can keep that up and the pace down, this first-half total of 117 is one or two points too high, just like the Wednesday first-half total we cashed the under on.
If we can get a first-half under 117 points, I’m pretty sure we can also get the second half to follow suit and the full game total cashes under.
While the second halves have been higher scoring lately and between these two teams this season, Dallas has owned the pace of the first three meetings at 95.2 possessions per game.
That pace sustained, combined with a lower first-half will lead to the second-half cashing under too if we can avoid overtime.
NBA Pick: Under 117 1st Half (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
NBA Pick: Under 229 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
