Nestor Cortes is delivering, but the New York Yankees remain fade-worthy for Thursday’s MLB picks when they host the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Thursday 5, August, 2021 –7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Who are we to doubt Nestor Cortes? The last time we had a chance to look at this junkballer extraordinaire here at the ranch, we were skeptical; as a spot starter, Cortes had put up some very strong numbers for the New York Yankees, but over a very small sample of innings. Plus, the Yankees were matched up with struggling Michael Wacha and the Tampa Bay Rays on July 28.
So we put the Over in our MLB picks, and go figure, both pitchers were outstanding. Final score: Yankees 3, Rays 1 (Under 8.5). Naturally, Cortes is back to haunt us – at least, we think he is. The Yankees haven’t made it official yet at press time, but it looks like Cortes will get another start (or at least follow an opener) when the Seattle Mariners come to town. For now, we only have the overseas MLB lines to work with, but the Bombers are available at –190, with the total set at 9.5 runs. Decisions, decisions.
Cortes The Killer
Let’s take a moment to praise Cortes. Last week, the Cuban native provided the best performance of his short stay in the bigs, allowing just one earned run to Tampa Bay on three hits over five innings. Cortes now has an impressive 2.18 FIP over 32.2 innings, a stunning improvement from his previous body of work. Is this real life? Assume for now that we’re not living in a simulacrum.
Even if Cortes keeps this up, the Yankees (57-49, minus-5.89 betting units heading into Wednesday’s action) will be too chalky if they open anywhere near –190 at our preferred online sportsbooks. FiveThirtyEight project New York’s chances of victory at 56 percent, which works out to –127 using our super-sweet gambling calculator, the BMR Odds Converter. We should be much more interested in taking the Mariners (58-51, plus-24.03 units through Wednesday) at around +160. They are the most profitable team in the majors, after all.
Hitting With My Good Eye Closed
The Mariners, though? They’ve been the luckiest team in baseball this season; Seattle’s minus-49 run differential is the equivalent of a 49-60 Pythagorean win-loss record, nearly 20 games worse than where they are in the real-life American League West standings. The M’s are 23-11 in games decided by one run, and 9-2 in extra innings.
That’s unsustainable – especially after they sent closer Kendall Graveman to the Houston Astros for a crate of Spider Tack. Then again, the MLB odds have been leaning too heavily toward New York all year long. And Seattle’s projected starter, Tyler Anderson (4.28 FIP), is up 2.20 betting units this year despite his team record of 9-10.
That includes a 9-9 mark with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who sent Anderson to he Pacific Northwest ahead of the trade deadline in a more positive move for the M’s. We’re going to look like chumps again if Cortes keeps weaving his magic, but at these odds, the numbers are telling us to go with the Mariners. Make it a small sum, though, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Mariners +204 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
