March Madness 2026 Bracket Watch: Who’s Surging and Who’s Slipping Before Selection Sunday

It’s important to consider which teams are in a better position for a higher seed and which could be falling down the ranks, since strength of schedule is a major key in a deep tourney run. You don’t want your team to be on the tougher side of a brack since they fell to a lower seed.

Buy: Teams Trending Up

Each of these three teams is on a roll right now, setting them up for a higher seed.

Florida’s 10-Game Heater

The Gators are 24-6 on the season at the time of this article, currently on a 10-game winning streak. This includes impressive wins over Arkansas (W 111-77), Kentucky (W 92-83), and Alabama (W 100-77). With six of these victories coming by 20+ points, this team is establishing itself as National Championship contenders.

If Florida can lock in a strong finish in the SEC tournament, there’s a reasonable chance that they can secure a No. 1 seed, as long as UConn struggles. That would give the Gators a chance to go on a deep run in the tourney.

With junior forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, along with junior center Rueben Chinyelu combining for a strong frontcourt, the Gators have the necessary tools to cause problems for opposing teams. 

UConn Still Has the Edge in the Top Seed Race

The Huskies are 27-3 on the year, with the only losses on the schedule coming to Creighton, St. John’s, and Arizona. But when they faced St. John’s on February 25th, they blew them out 72-40. That’s an impressive win because St. John’s is currently 21st on Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.

Like Florida, UConn is trying to lock in a No. 1 seed to join Duke, Michigan, and Arizona. However, the Huskies have one key edge over the Gators. When UConn faced Florida on December 9th, the Huskies beat the Gators 77-73. 

To that end, UConn would likely have to collapse in the Big East tournament to lose their top seed in the bracket.

Alabama Has Become a Dangerous Dark Horse

The Crimson Tide have had one of the more impressive turnarounds in the country, currently on an eight-game winning streak after starting the year at 14-7. This includes notable wins over Tennessee and Arkansas.

Alabama is characterized by strong guard play, with sophomore Labaron Philon Jr. (21.5 PPG) and junior Aden Holloway (16.

It’s important to consider which teams are in a better position for a higher seed and which could be falling down the ranks, since strength of schedule is a major key in a deep tourney run. You don’t want your team to be on the tougher side of a bracket since they fell to a lower seed.

Fade: Teams Losing Value

These are teams who are trending downward heading into Selection Sunday.

Houston Is Losing Ground in the Seeding Battle

The Cougars are 24-5 on the season, but they’ve gone 2-3 in their last five games. That includes losses to Iowa State (L 70-67), Arizona (L 73-66), and Kansas (L 69-56). While this is a tough set of teams, including a national championship favorite in the Wildcats, it’s still not a good sign that Houston struggled vs top competition.

The good news for Houston is that they have strong guard play, including freshman Kingston Flemmings, who is averaging 16.6 points and 5.3 assists per game. 

With that said, even though this recent rough patch has taken Houston out of consideration for a No. 1 seed, we can never count them out in March Madness.

BYU’s Freefall From 16-1 Start

BYU has a 20-10 record, but they’re on a major slide right now, currently on a three-game losing streak. The Cougars have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, including losses to Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF. 

This is extremely disappointing for the Cougars because they started the year at 16-1. Not only that, but they have a touted NBA prospect in AJ Dybantsa, who could go first overall in the upcoming draft. 

Dybantsa is a freshman forward who is putting up 24.8 points per game, so we can’t count out the Cougars. Perhaps they can get back on track and emerge as a potential tourney dark horse, undervalued due to their poor finish to the season.

Louisville Has Entered the Danger Zone

Louisville is 21-9 on the year, but they’re on a 2-3 slide in their last five games. During this stretch, the Cardinals have lost to Clemson, North Carolina, and SMU. But their struggles have been even beyond this recent rough patch, as they’re only 13-9 since a 7-0 start.

The good news is that freshman guard Mikel Brown is back in the lineup, as the team went 4-4 without him. Brown is putting up 18.2 points per game, so he’s a key piece to this roster.

With Brown back, the Cardinals can still cause problems for opposing teams. It’s just likely that they’re going to come in at a lower seed than we would have thought back when they were in top form.