Editor’s note: This article is updated weekly as the NCAAB season unfolds up until Sunday, March 13.
Every Tuesday from now until Selection Sunday, Bookmakers Review will be updating its “Field of 68 March Madness” projections.
There is always plenty of debate as to where each team fits in the overall tournament picture but check out our NCAAB picks below and see if you agree!
* Projected conference winners receive an automatic bid.
The No. 1 Seeds
1-A. Gonzaga (25-3) *
The Zags bounced back after their unexpected loss to St. Mary’s with a 10-point win over San Francisco on Monday night. The only potential speed bump to Gonzo’s seemingly inevitable WCC title and No. 1 ranking heading into the Big Dance is the Gaels but can they really pull another upset? Nah.
1-B. Arizona (28-3) *
After a stunning loss to Colorado, the Wildcats have gotten back on track in a major way by winning all three of their games last week by an average of 20 points. Included on the Cats’ hit list was a big 91-71 road win over No. 16 USC.
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1-C. Baylor (26-5) *
The defending national champs are livin’ large and in charge after an impressive 68-61 win over No. 21 Texas in hostile territory, followed by a workmanlike victory over Iowa State last weekend. The Big 12 has boiled down to a two-team conference tournament between the Bears and the Jayhawks.
1-D. Kansas (25-6)
The Jayhawks got knocked off their perch early last week after a 10-point road loss to TCU but avenged that defeat two nights later when they notched a gritty 72-68 victory over the Frogs in front of the partisan crowd at the Allen Fieldhouse. Then Kansas truly showed its mettle when they secured an overtime win over No. 21 Texas on Saturday.
The No. 2 Seeds
2-A. Duke (26-5) *
It was supposed to be the proverbial Hollywood ending, Coach K’s last game in front of the Duke faithful after 42 years at the helm playing against his fiercest conference rival, North Carolina. Despite being installed as 11-point home favorites, the Devils wilted under the bright hot spotlight and fell 94-81 to the Tar Heels.
We suspect Coach K will turn that loss into a teaching moment and Duke will roll to its 16th ACC Tournament championship when the smoke clears.
2-B. Auburn (27-4) *
After losing to Florida and Tennessee within a week of each other the Tigers clawed their way to a three-point win over Mississippi State and then did what they had to do in earning an 82-71 win over South Carolina.
Although we are not convinced Auburn is the real deal, the Tigers have made significant strides since last week in our March Madness Bracket Projections when we had them installed as the 3-D entry.
2-C. Tennessee (23-7)
What more do we need to see from the Vols? Sure, the seven losses on their record stick out like a sore thumb but what they’ve done lately speaks volumes. In the span of one week, Tennessee defeated No. 3 Auburn, beat Georgia on the road, and then avenged an earlier loss to No. 14 Arkansas. Can you say underrated?
2-D. Arkansas (24-7)
Speaking of the Hogs, they won’t be dropping much more than a few spots in our rankings from last week because losing a hard-fought decision to the talented Vols is no cause for alarm.
The No. 3 Seeds
3-A. Kentucky (25-6)
Kentucky rebounded nicely after a narrow loss to Arkansas with two solid wins over conference foes Ole Miss and Florida last week. Are we bowled over with this edition of the Cats? No, but they are a team that could surprise the truly elite.
3-B. Texas Tech (23-8)
The only thing the Red Raiders did last week was lose their only game – a highly competitive one we might add but a 52-51 loss to Oklahoma State nonetheless. As a result, they have dropped down into Quadrant 3 but possess the defensive chops to stymie even the most explosive teams.
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3-C. Wisconsin (24-6) *
The Badgers were still reveling in the euphoria of their three-point victory over Purdue when they met lowly Nebraska on Sunday afternoon and dropped a 74-73 stunner to the Huskers. We still believe Whiskey is the class of the Big Ten and expect them to prove it this week.
3-D. Villanova (23-7) *
Nova defeated their Big East rivals from Providence for the second time in two weeks to secure the regular-season sweep. What made it even more impressive was that it was hot off the heels of a narrow loss to U Conn. The Cats would end last week with a dominating performance against Butler.
The No. 4 Seeds
4-A. UCLA (23-6)
The Bruins cop the top spot in Quadrant 4 by virtue of their impressive 75-68 win over No. 16 USC on Saturday and will be the biggest challenge to Arizona in the Pac-12 tourney.
4-B. Providence (24-4)
Providence fell to Villanova in their regular-season finale but they didn’t go down without a fight as they battled back from a 14-point deficit en route to the 76-74 setback. There was no divine intervention to be had for the Friars but that doesn’t mean they won’t prevail as one of the favorites in the Big East tournament this week.
4-C. Purdue (25-6)
We won’t punish the Boilermakers any longer after they dropped two of their last three games of the regular season. Let’s consider that both losses came on the road to tough conference rivals, Michigan State and Wisconsin, with both games decided by identical three-point scores. They subsequently wrapped the season with a win over Indiana.
4-D. Illinois (22-8)
The Illini finished their season with a spirited win over No. 24 Iowa on Sunday. The Big Ten is wide open entering the postseason and any number of teams could be crowned the conference king…including Illinois.
The No. 5 Seeds
5-A. USC (25-6)
The Trojans have dropped a full quadrant since last week due to their pair of losses to end the season. But we can’t be too harsh as the caliber of competition was top-notch including No. 2 Arizona and No. 17 UCLA.
5-B. U Conn (22-8)
The Huskies have been tough down the stretch but they were upended, 64-62, by Creighton which was their second loss to the Bluejays this season. Nevertheless, U Conn got well a few days later with a solid effort against DePaul.
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5-C. Houston (26-5) *
This Houston edition may bear little resemblance to the Phi Slama Jama juggernaut of the 80s but they are talented in their own right and strung together four consecutive double-digit wins before falling on the road to Memphis in their regular-season finale.
5-D. North Carolina (23-8)
Vaulting from 7-D to 5-D in one week is what happens when you spoil a party like the one Duke fans were bent on throwing Coach K last week. The Tar Heels had different ideas and put together as complete a performance as they have all season in their 94-81 stunner.
The No. 6 Seeds
6-A. Iowa (22-9)
The Big Ten is represented yet again and this time we see the Hawkeyes checking in as the top seed in Quadrant 6 after reeling off five convincing wins before ending their year with a two-point loss to conference foe Illinois.
6-B. Murray State (30-2) *
Murray State raced to an 18-0 conference mark, as well as the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament title, with a scrappy win over Morehead State. Yes, the Racers are the class of the OVC but it’s still just the OVC.
6-C. LSU (21-10)
The Tigers have had a brutal schedule down the home stretch of the season and they have the scars to prove it after having lost to South Carolina, No. 6 Kentucky, and No. 14 Arkansas by a combined eight points! LSU also delivered a 20-point blowout over Missouri and an impressive overtime win against Alabama to end their season.
6-D. St. Mary’s (25-6)
It would have been understandable had the Gaels experienced a letdown against Santa Clara on Monday night in the semifinals of the WCC tournament after shocking the world in their previous game when they defeated the No. 1 team in the nation, Gonzaga. But St. Mary’s claimed a hotly-contested 75-72 win and will meet the Zags in the conference finals.
From the No. 7 Seed To the Bubble Boys
PROJECTIONS UP TO MAR. 7
The No. 1 Seeds
1-A. Gonzaga (24-3) *
The Zags remain at the top of the heap despite their stunning 67-57 loss to conference rival St. Mary’s on Saturday night, snapping their 17-game winning streak.
Gonzaga checked in as 10 ½ point road favorites after having dispatched the Gaels, 74-58, only two weeks prior. Let’s not forget, St. Mary’s is a Top 20 team, so let’s show some mercy even though their opponent did not.
1-B. Duke (25-4) *
Duke has won 11 of their last 12 games and we must consider that their four losses this season have come by a combined nine points!
The Blue Devils avenged their earlier loss to Virginia last week by the score of 65-61 and followed that up with a dominating 25-point win over the Orange in Syracuse. Coach K is going out in style and he has the horses to do it.
1-C. Arizona (25-3) *
It wasn’t all that surprising that the Wildcats were one of six AP Top 10 teams that lost on Saturday after their outside shooting completely abandoned them in the second half of their 79-63 loss to Colorado.
Nevertheless, the Cats have only lost three games all season and everyone is entitled to an off night, and this was theirs.
1-D. Baylor (25-5)
Last week in our March Madness Bracket Projections we had the Baylor as the 2-D entry but an impressive victory over Big 12 rival Kansas on Saturday, followed by a gritty win over No. 21 Texas on Monday night has tilted the scales in the Bears favor.
The No. 2 Seeds
2-A. Kansas (23-5) *
The Jayhawks are still clinging to their half-game lead over Baylor in the Big 12 conference standings but their 80-70 loss to the Bears, on Saturday, saw them drop from our quartet of No. 1’s last week to the top Quadrant 2 team in the nation. There is no shame in losing to the defending national champs but losses have consequences.
2-B. Arkansas (23-6)
The Razorbacks are quietly working their way up the ladder but they won’t be sneaking up on teams much longer after winning 13 of their last 14 and crushing it at the betting windows, going 12-1-1 against the number over that time. A 75-73 win over Kentucky last week has us believing the Hogs are for real.
2-C. Texas Tech (23-7)
This is where the rankings get a bit dicey as a case could be made for several other teams to occupy this lofty spot. Nevertheless, we will hang our hats with the Red Raiders as they avenged an earlier loss to Oklahoma by smashing the Sooners, 66-42, on Tuesday and then topped Kansas State on Monday night.
A loss to a tough TCU team was sandwiched between those wins but T-Tech gets the 2-C slot this week bolstered by their two wins over Baylor earlier in the season.
2-D. Tennessee (21-7)
The Vols won’t be this high in many other rankings but they deserve to be right here after beating then-No. 4 Kentucky by double digits and defeating SEC rival and No. 3 Auburn on Saturday. Tennessee may have seven losses on their record but they are still within a game of leading the SEC and should walk over Georgia in their next outing.
The No. 3 Seeds
3-A. Kentucky (23-6)
The Cats had a solid win over LSU before they bowed, 75-73, on the road to No. 18 Arkansas last week. If the Razorbacks didn’t have our utmost respect, we would probably put Kentucky down a few notches but here they are for now.
3-B. Wisconsin (23-5) *
The Badgers are on a nice roll heading into a pivotal conference clash with Purdue on Tuesday. Wisconsin has now won six of their last seven, including road wins over Minnesota and Rutgers last week.
3-C. Purdue (24-5)
The Boilermakers played only once last week and that ended in a 68-65 road loss to Michigan State after getting nipped at the buzzer by a Tyson Walker three-pointer with only three seconds remaining. Purdue is among the elite in the Big 12 but beyond that, we’re not quite sure.
3-D. Auburn (25-4) *
If you are surprised to see the Tigers this low then consider what they have done lately as opposed to what they did earlier this season.
After winning 22 of their first 23 games, Auburn has gone 3-3 over their last six and lost two of their last three contests via conference setbacks to Florida and Tennessee with a win over lackluster Ole Miss in between. Did the Tigers peak too early?
The No. 4 Seeds
4-A. USC (25-4)
The Trojans have now won eight of their last nine but last week struggled against woeful Oregon State, eking out a 94-91 double-overtime win followed by a much more impressive 70-69 victory over Oregon two nights later.
The knock against USC is that they have only played two ranked teams this season – a 72-63 loss to Arizona and a 67-64 win over UCLA.
4-B. UCLA (22-6)
The Bruins were busy playing four games in a week, compiling a 3-1 mark. Double-digit wins over Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington coupled with a five-point loss to Oregon has the Bruins pretty much where they were last week.
4-C. Providence (24-3) *
The Friars have a tenuous grasp on the Big East lead but they have won 11 of their last 12 with their latest win being a 72-51 blowout over Creighton. But where’s the beef?
Providence has done a stellar job beating good Big East teams but they have yet to face a squad within the Top 10 and that’s precisely why they are seeded where they are.
4-D. Villanova (21-7)
Villanova is nipping at Providence’s heels in the Big East and will get their chance to sweep the season series on Tuesday night but a narrow two-point loss to U Conn last week put them directly underneath the Friars in our rankings.
The No. 5 Seeds
5-A. Saint Mary’s (24-6)
After losing to their far more heralded rivals two weeks ago, the Gaels shocked the world with a 67-57 win over the top-ranked team in the nation – Gonzaga. Huge win but that is likely as good as it will get for St. Mary’s.
5-B. Houston (24-4) *
The Cougars have won 16 of 18 and, after losing earlier this year to SMU, took their revenge with a 14-point win over the Mustangs on Sunday. But Houston’s biggest issue is the soft schedule they play as a result of the conference in which they reside.
5-C. UConn (21-7)
The Huskies acquitted themselves quite nicely last week with their biggest win of the season, a 71-69 victory over Villanova, followed by a nine-point win over Georgetown.
5-D. Iowa (21-8)
The Hawkeyes knocked off three Big Ten foes - Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern - all by double digits since our rankings last week. That alone should be enough to raise their profile, and it did, as they climbed into Quadrant 5 for the first time.
The No. 6 Seeds
6-A. Murray State (28-2) *
It’s hard to knock the team with the best record in the nation but an underwhelming effort in their latest performance that culminated in a narrow 70-68 win over the subpar Southeast Missouri State has us knocking the Racers down a few pegs from last week.
6-B. Alabama (19-10)
The Tide has been rolling lately, winning five of their last six including recent victories over Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Texas A&M and LSU await this week.
6-C. Texas (21-9)
After a solid home win over TCU followed by a victory on the highway against West Virginia, the Horns gave Baylor a run for their money on Monday night but ultimately bowed, 68-61. If there is such a thing as a good loss, this might have been it.
6-D. Ohio State (18-8)
A win over Indiana followed by an impressive performance against Illinois in which the Buckeyes captured an 86-83 victory would have been a nifty way to wrap up the week but a 15-point loss to Maryland on Sunday put a damper on that parade.
From the No. 7 Seed To the Bubble Boys
PROJECTIONS UP TO FEB. 28
The No. 1 Seeds
1-A. Gonzaga (23-2) *
We are just ga-ga for Gonzo and you should be too as they continue their search and destroy mission by trouncing any team standing in their way. The Zags haven’t been lower than a 10 ½ point favorite since their last loss on December 4th to Alabama.
1-B. Auburn (24-3) *
After going over two months without a loss, the Tigers lost a pair of hotly contested decisions by a combined five points in setbacks to Arkansas and Florida. We still believe.
1-C. Arizona (24-2) *
Arizona rules the Pac-12 with a 14-1 conference mark but their narrow 84-81 win over Oregon on Saturday gave Cats fans a case of agita and their backers a thinner wallet after failing to cover the 12 ½ point impost.
1-D. Kansas (22-4) *
The fourth No. 1 seed belongs to the Jayhawks, at least for this week, as a case could be made for a few others to cop a top spot.
Kansas has looked impressive all season long but a win over Iowa State and a blowout of Baylor, earlier this month, followed by two impressive wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia tilt the scales in their favor.
The No. 2 Seeds
2-A. Purdue (24-4) *
Despite a nice win over Rutgers, which ended the Scarlet Knights’ four-game winning streak over Top 25 teams, Purdue still failed to cover the 12 ½ point spread (barely) and has been a money-burner at the betting windows recently.
We need to see bigger margins of victory before elevating the Boilermakers to the next level.
2-B. Duke (23-4) *
The Blue Devils were upset earlier this month by Virginia but have rebounded with four consecutive ACC victories, including a dominating performance against Florida State in which they avenged an earlier loss.
2-C. Kentucky (22-5)
While some may dwell on Kentucky’s loss to Tennessee last week, we prefer to focus on their two big wins over Alabama this month, with the most recent being a 90-81 track meet win over the Tide on Saturday.
2-D. Baylor (23-5)
Being the defending national champion has its privileges and it is why the Bears will get the No. 2 seed here. Two recent losses this month came against the iron in Kansas and Texas Tech. We will forgive them for now.
The No. 3 Seeds
3-A. Texas Tech (21-6)
The Red Raiders get our 3-A seed for several reasons, not the least of which is their white-hot 70.4 percent cover rate at the betting windows.
The college basketball odds are revealing T-Tech as 10-point home favorites against Oklahoma on Tuesday night…are they worthy of a wager?
3-B. Villanova (21-6) *
The Wildcats followed up a mild upset loss to Marquette by reeling off five consecutive wins, including an impressive 89-84 win over Big East leader Providence. A rematch on March 1st with the Friars will likely decide the conference regular-season champion.
3-C. Wisconsin (21-5)
A postgame brawl shouldn’t blind us from the fact that the Badgers have strung together four nice wins over solid teams like Michigan State, Indiana, and – how could we forget – Michigan, sandwiched around a loss to the giant-slayers, Rutgers. A Big Ten title could be theirs if they upend Purdue next week.
3-D. Providence (22-3)
The Friars lost a tough one to conference rival, Villanova, last week but rebounded with a gritty win over Butler. They will end their season with games against Xavier, Creighton, and a rematch with Villanova for a possible conference crown.
The No. 4 Seeds
4-A. USC (23-4)
The Trojans have cobbled together six wins over their last seven contests, with their lone defeat to the Pac-12 leader, Arizona. USC will get one last crack at the Wildcats next week before wrapping their regular season against archrival, UCLA.
4-B. Arkansas (21-6)
Had it not been for a three-game hiccup to start the New Year, the Razorbacks would be challenging Auburn for an SEC regular-season title. But the Hogs have shaken off that funk to win 11 of their last 12 and are a stunning 11-1 ATS over that period.
4-C. UCLA (19-5)
All it took was a few days in the desert earlier this month to undo the stellar season the Bruins were enjoying. Back-to-back losses to Arizona and Arizona State coupled with a 67-64 setback to USC has caused UCLA’s stock to plummet.
4-D. Murray State (26-2) *
How low can we go before we have to acknowledge Murray State? The Racers are unbeaten in the Ohio Valley Conference and have won 26 of their 28 contests this season with their last loss coming right before Christmas to arguably the best team in the nation, Auburn.
The No. 5 Seeds
5-A. Houston (22-4) *
A narrow loss to Southern Methodist followed by a surprising defeat to Memphis a few weeks ago has tightened up the AAC standings but the Cougars are still in the catbird seat with five games remaining on their regular-season slate.
5-B. Saint Mary’s (22-6)
If the No. 1 team in the nation can hail from the West Coast Conference, then why can’t their closest conference rivals take a seat as the No. 18 team in our March Madness seedings? The Gaels lost earlier this season to the Zags but will have a chance to avenge that loss this week…as unlikely as that may be.
5-C. Tennessee (19-7)
With one lone exception, the Vols have been in every game this season and are a tough out for any team in the nation. Tennessee melted late in the second half in their 58-48 loss to Arkansas last weekend but they are nothing if not gritty and could surprise in the postseason tournament.
5-D. UConn (19-7)
This Big East entry checks in this week winning four of their last five games with the most recent, a 72-61 victory over Xavier.
The Huskies are beasts on the glass, averaging 41.5 rebounds per game (6th), and are the kind of team that can wear their opponents down if allowed to hang around.
The No. 6 Seeds
6-A. Iowa (18-8)
A complete game is what the Hawkeyes needed to get past Big Ten rival, Ohio State, in hostile territory and they got exactly that when they dribbled out of Columbus with a 75-62 victory on Saturday.
Their remaining five games are all-conference matchups and will determine whether Iowa ascends in the rankings or drops out of the Top 25 when the dust settles.
6-B. Illinois (19-7)
Illinois is another team fond of crashing the glass but they were outworked by Rutgers last week in a 70-59 loss in which the Scarlet Knights enjoyed a 46-28 advantage on the boards.
However, the Fighting Illini bounced right back with a five-point win over Michigan State and have four games remaining including Iowa in their regular-season finale.
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6-C. Virginia (17-10)
Overlooked in most Top 25 rankings, the Cavaliers won’t be ignored on our list. Virginia appears to be getting better as the season grows longer having won five of their last six including a 69-68 stunner over Duke as 11-point road underdogs earlier this month.
6-D. Alabama (17-10)
The Tide squeaks into our Top 25 as the fifth SEC team to do so after losing to Kentucky for the second time in a little over two weeks. Bama beats up the teams they should but can’t make the jump to compete with the elite.
From the No. 7 Seed To the Bubble Boys
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
