Time to dial up to three more plays for this NFL Sunday. We’ve enjoyed great success the first two weeks going 6-0. No promises that will continue but it won’t be for a lack of effort, that we can guarantee. Underdogs have dominated the action the first two weeks at 21-11 ATS, with 15 outright upsets.
Will that continue probably not; however, it sure makes for fun times making NFL picks. For this week’s value picks against the NFL odds, we are backing what we think are two superior clubs and one that appears in a situation where it can turn the tables on its opponent.
Washington Football Team vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 26,2021 – 1:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
Each of these teams is 1-1, but as the point spread shows, that is about all they have in common. Buffalo is thought to be a Super Bowl contender and though Josh Allen has not played at last year’s level yet, there is little reason to think he won’t.
The Bills are dominating when you look inside the numbers, outscoring the opposition by 15 games per contest. Buffalo has a yard’s differential of +108 per game and while that is just after two games, those are numbers you don’t often see at this level.
Washington on the other hand has been outgained by 75 YPG and its No. 2 defense from a year ago is missing in action at present. We like what Taylor Heinicke brings to the party as a passer and his toughness. However, for the long term, if Heinicke could not beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick in the preseason, is he a long-term solution?
For this encounter, we note that Buffalo is 7th stopping the run and if they can force the WFT to be a passing unit only, they can heat up the pass rush. The Bills are 9-2 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games, winning by almost 11 PPG.
NFL Pick: Bills -7 (-114) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 1:00 PM EDT TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville
This nonconference clash has several interesting features. We will start with the head coach, both of who came via the college football ranks. Urban Meyer took over a morbid Jacksonville franchise. He understood in the pro game you have to have a top-level quarterback to have a chance to succeed, which is where Trevor Lawrence fits in.
Kliff Kingsbury took over Arizona and he had far more pieces than Meyer has in north Florida and he has the right QB in Kyler Murray to run his varied offense. Both head coaches have received criticism, but one is 0-2 and the other is 2-0.
Jacksonville ranks in the bottom six in the league in yards per game (292.0) and yards allowed per game (423.5). Arizona, on the other hand, is second in the NFL in yards per game (445.0) with Murray working his magic. With betting odds coming down on Arizona to -7, that adds value on the Cards and gets them off the half point and we don’t see Jacksonville matching points with the total at 52.
NFL Pick : Cardinals -7 (-109) with GTBets
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 8:20 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Green Bay at this point is probably wondering when they will ever get to play San Francisco at home again. This is the Packers’ fourth battle with the 49ers in the last 22 months and all have been played in Santa Clara.
San Francisco has won two of the three and not one of the contests have been close, with an average margin of victory of 21 PPG. Green Bay looked terrible for the first six quarters of this season and though they dominated Detroit in the second half Monday, it’s still Detroit.
At the same time, the Niners built a huge lead on the Lions in their opener, went to sleep, and needed a late stand to win by eight. Last week, San Fran was in a nip and tuck battle and was modestly outgained Philadelphia in a 17-11 triumph.
Both teams have not come close to midseason form, which is understandable. Because most oddsmakers have the Pack at +3.5, we like them on the hook and they are 9-0 ATS off a SU division triumph if their opponent is off a victory.
NFL Pick: Packers +3.5 (-109) with GTbets
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
