Every time LeBron James comes back to Cleveland to play the Cavaliers, it’s always going to be a big event. Tonight his team came in as six-point road underdogs, at top-rated sportsbooks, which is a sign of the times. The Cavs are the much better team this season but the King has that special ability to lift his team so let’s break this game down to see if we can find some value here.
L.A. Lakers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, March 21, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Return of The King in Cleveland
LeBron James coming home has to be a factor when better this game tonight. We don't know how many seasons he has left, although judging by this one, there's still quite a bit of fuel left in his tank. He isn't in his prime anymore but this version of King James is still better than 98% of the league.
It would have been fitting for him to move into second place on the all time scoring list in Cleveland but it wasn't meant to be. Tonight he brings his Los Angeles Lakers to town as six-point road underdogs.
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That's where they deserve to be in all honesty having lost seven of their last ten games. They're supposed to be fighting for a playoff spot but instead they are being rightfully criticized by most of the basketball world for being the biggest underachievers in the league. Make no mistake about it, if you play with LeBron James, it's championship or bust. As for today, this team is a bust and will be disassembled in the offseason.
There has to be some part of LeBron that will look at this Cleveland roster and think to himself "I have a much better chance of winning a title with these guys". I don't see LeBron going back to Cleveland for part three but it's nice to see this franchise step out of his gigantic shadow.
Even though I do think that Cleveland should be favorites, -6 is a really sharp line. I think the energy that LeBron and his teammates are likely to bring means that this game should be closer than two possessions when it's all said and done.
More Value On Total in This Spot
The total for this game is 227 at most of the top online sportsbooks which is really high for a matchup involving Cleveland. This is one of the elite defenses in the game and their average total on the season is 211.4 per game. It's only 209.4 at home and on the season, 56.5% of their games go under.
I understand why the total is so high in this situation. They're expecting a lot of energy in the building which a lot of times can transfer to the pace of the game. I don't see Cleveland playing faster than usual because it really doesn't benefit them. They play at the 5th slowest pace in the league while the Lakers play at the 6th fastest.
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If this game goes over, I can't see any scenario where that means the Cavs win and cover. In fact, I'll take this narrative a step further. Even though the Lakers are the more desperate team since they are 10th in the west which means they're barely qualifying for the play in the tournament, the Cavs need this win more.
The Pick
The Cavs are currently 6th in the east which is the last automatic qualification spot for the playoffs. If they win tonight and the Raptors lose in Chicago, they will strengthen their position while hurting LeBron and company. A win like this would be huge in terms of morale and self-belief for both players and fans.
We can't underestimate things like this because to have LeBron and company come in and win here even though we know they've been inferior all season would not be great for morale. I think Cleveland shows the NBA world that they are for real and give an elite effort defensively. I'm not sure they cover a -6 spread though so my official play is Under 227 (-110) which is available at Bovada.
NBA Pick: Under 227 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
