The NCAA Tournament has kicked three-quarters of teams out, and the 16 best teams remain. Every team remaining earned their spot in the Sweet 16 with two wins over dancing teams. Some had easier paths than others, but every team left is four wins away from lifting the trophy and cutting down the nets to end the season.
An interesting college basketball matchup is between Iowa State and Miami. The Cyclones made it through Wisconsin to get here, and their defense held the Badgers to less than 50 points. They overcome adversity to make it to this game, but they don’t think that they’re done just yet.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Friday, March 25, 2022 – 09:59 PM EDT at United Center
They’ll face off against the Miami Hurricanes. Miami beat Auburn after dominating on both sides of the ball. Auburn was a likely Final Four contender, but the Hurricanes were prepared in every facet.
Both teams are double-digit seeds, but they don’t play like that. They went through title contenders, and one of them will make it to the Elite Eight. According to the NCAAB odds, that will be Miami. They are favored by 2.5 points. Will they cover the spread?
Keys for Miami to Cover the Spread
Against Auburn, every starter played for at least 34 minutes. The Hurricanes rely heavily on a short rotation, and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It becomes a red flag when someone gets hurt or sits on the bench in foul trouble. They realize that they have to be available, and that is why they are disciplined on the defensive end. Still, these star players need to stay fresh and avoid bad fouls.
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What is really scary about Miami’s offensive performance against Auburn was that they scored 79 points while going 3 for 15 from deep and only attempting 15 free throws. The Tigers had a size advantage, but Miami still attacked the rim and won consistently. That type of aggression and confidence should translate to the Sweet 16 against Iowa State.
One place where Miami can improve is on the boards. They allowed too many offensive rebounds by Auburn. If the Tigers could have gotten hot, they would have made that game more competitive with the number of shots they took. Still, the Hurricanes contested well.
Keys for Iowa State to Cover
In the Round of 32, Iowa State fouled 25 times and let Wisconsin consistently get to the line. If it weren’t for atrocious perimeter shooting and excessive turnovers, the Badgers would still be in the NCAA Tournament. That level of fouling can’t continue against the Hurricanes.
Neither team had a reliable outside shot in the last round. I think that it is safe to assume that neither team will light it up in this round either. While a streaky shooter could be the difference in this one, I expect the winner to be whoever dominates the post. Iowa State will be better at rebounding, but they need to consistently get points in the paint to win this game.
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You can’t expect to hold another team under 50 points. That’s why the Cyclones need someone to step up on offense. It will depend on matchups, but some player needs to consistently get a bucket for Iowa State to upset Miami and make it to the Elite Eight.
That’s enough about what each team needs to do. What will actually happen in this game?
Picks and Prediction
Pace will go a long way in determining the winner of this game. Both teams want to dictate the speed, but they go in opposite directions. Iowa State will want to slow things down, and Miami will want to speed it up. NCAA Tournament games naturally go fast, and the Hurricanes are comfortable with that.
Also, Miami has the most impressive win out of these two teams. They beat a higher-seeded Auburn team, and they dominated in that game. Even when they made errors, they overcame them to win the game outright.
For my NCAAB picks, I like Miami to win and cover. As long as they stay out of foul trouble, they should be able to run up the score with their starters. That’s why I like the over as well.
Prediction: Miami 70, Iowa State 64
NCAAB Pick: Miami -2.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
NCAAB Pick: Over 133 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
