The Miami Heat are one of the most profitable ‘over’ teams on the NBA odds board. Can they do it Thursday night versus the Brooklyn Nets?
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, March 3, 2022 – 7:30 PM EST at Barclays Center
You have to like what the Miami Heat are doing these days. This is the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference at 41-22 SU, excellent at both ends of the floor, with a quality mix of young guns and veteran leadership. The Heat is also one of the more profitable teams on the NBA odds board at 36-26-1 ATS, adding to their bankroll with Wednesday’s narrow 120-119 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks (–4.5 at home).
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Be that as it may, Miami is even more profitable when it comes to the over. Which is part of the reason why we’re making that our NBA pick for Thursday’s matchup with the Brooklyn Nets (32-31 SU, 25-36-2 ATS). We have other reasons which we’ll get to in a moment, but Wednesday’s result saw the Heat go comfortably over 225, leaving this tasty bet at 38-25 on the season.
We’re still waiting for Thursday’s total to hit the board as we go to press; the overseas lines have it at 221 points, so let’s work with that for now. To the pickmobile!
Captain Over
It’s interesting to see Miami rack up this over the record, given their gritty stereotype, but it’s nothing new. Despite their defensive intensity and their very slow pace (98.0 possessions per game this year, ahead of only the Dallas Mavericks at 97.6) The Heat had the over on a three-year winning streak heading into the 2021-22 campaign: 2020-21: over 38-34 2019-20: over 43-28-2 2018-19: over 42-40 Now they’re well on their way to making it four straight years of over goodness.
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Bam Adebayo has been here for the duration, but business really started picking up when Jimmy Butler arrived in the summer of 2019, in a 4-way trade that saw Hassan Whiteside shipped to the Portland Trail Blazers. Getting Whiteside out of the mix helped unclog Miami’s offense; adding Butler made it one of the best in the league.
Gotta Be KD
As for Brooklyn, the over has essentially broken even for them this year at 32-30-1, and it might seem like a strange choice for our NBA picks when they don’t have Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, or Ben Simmons in the lineup.
Well, we just got word as I write this that Durant (left knee) will make his return Thursday, which has to be a boost for Brooklyn’s defense – no matter how rusty Durant may be after sitting idle since January 15th.
But wait, there’s more. The Nets have the over at 7-2 since the trade deadline when they sent James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond.
Curry has been a godsend on offense, hitting 46.8 percent of his threes; Drummond has played well too, and the one game he’s missed during this over run was Tuesday’s 109-108 loss to the Toronto Raptors (–8 at home), which went under 219.5 points.
Drummond is listed as probable for Thursday with a sore left knee, so combine his expected return with Durant’s, and yes, we’ll lay some wood on the over in this NBA matchup. It’s a moral imperative, especially with the spread projections lining up very closely to the overseas NBA lines, which have Miami laying three points at press time. Don’t bet that, bet this.
NBA Pick: Over 219 .5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
