The Golden State Warriors might be worth a slight lean for your NBA picks when they host the Memphis Grizzlies this Thursday night.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Thursday, October 28, 2021-10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Maybe I’ve been too harsh with my assessment of the Golden State Warriors. My expectations for the Dubs were a lot lower than many of my colleagues at the ranch, yet here they are at a perfect 4-0 (2-2 ATS) after four games. They beat both Los Angeles teams, then they beat the Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. Okay, not the most difficult strength of schedule, but still.
Business should pick up Thursday night when Golden State hosts the freewheeling Memphis Grizzlies, who are also perfect in a way: They’re 3-0 ATS after winning two of their first three. This is one of the toughest NBA picks we’ve had to make here at the ranch. We were considering a slight lean towards the Warriors when they opened as 5-point favorites at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), but they’ve just moved Golden State to –5.5 on their NBA odds board. What to do, what to do.
The Memphis Spleen
Remember those Grit-N-Grind Grizzlies of years past? They’re extinct now; after three games, Memphis lead the league in offensive efficiency at 119.3 points per 100 possessions, and they’re dead-last in defensive efficiency at 116.3 points allowed/100.
Needless to say, the Over is 3-0 for the Grizz thus far. Maybe that’s the NBA pick du jour. Maybe. The Warriors have the Under at 3-1, but they’ve also been offense-heavy this year, ranking fourth in scoring (110.5) and 12th in stopping (102.9). That Under record also reflects the teams Golden State have faced, don’t forget. That 233-point total at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) is a bit scary, but these are the right teams for the job.
Ja Makin’ Me Crazy
We generally prefer using the NBA spreads for our recommendations here at the ranch, because we can support our picks with projections. In this case, FiveThirtyEight has Golden State winning by 4.5 points, while ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has their chances at 69.3 percent, for a fair money line of –226 using the San Francisco treat of gambling calculators, the BMR Odds Converter.
With the Dubs priced as –210 home faves at BetOnline, it looks like the quants are torn between these two teams. So that’s it, then: We’re officially taking the Over for a standard single-unit wager. If you can, catch this game through your local cable provider – or, if you’re a true degenerate, an Internet stream. It’s going to be a lot of fun watching these guys do their thing. Stephen Curry (plus-5.2 BPM) isn’t quite MVP-level just yet, but he’s good for 29.6 points per 36 minutes, and on the other side, you have Ja Morant (plus-7.2 BPM) making the leap, with ample help from De’Anthony Melton (plus-2.3 BPM) and big Steven Adams (plus-3.0 BPM). We’ll buy that cable package for a dollar.
MLB Pick: Over 233 (–110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
