Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed due to inclement weather.
If it’s Wrigley Field in early May, the Under must be the right MLB pick for Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers-Chicago Cubs matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Friday, May 6, 2022- 02:20 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
It was just the right thing to do. The Under was the obvious choice for your betting picks this past Wednesday when the Los Angeles Dodgers hosted the San Francisco Giants, and everything was going according to plan – until the Giants bullpen melted down in the seventh inning.
Final score: San Francisco 1, Los Angeles 9 (Over 7.5 runs). At least we split the cash by also taking the Dodgers, albeit as –171 home faves.
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But now we have a situation that’s even better suited for the Under: Friday’s matinee at Wrigley Field between the Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs.
It’s early May in the Windy City, and the weather report is ideal for producing a low-scoring game.
Wetter Is Better
That’s assuming they get the game in. The afternoon forecast at press time calls for light rain and temperatures in the high 40s; that rain should become heavier just as the first pitch is being thrown.
Winds of up to 20 mph are also expected to blow in from centerfield. Delightful. We’re still waiting for the MLB odds to pop up here at the ranch, but the under is worth an early recommendation at this point.
Despite Wednesday’s result, Los Angeles (16-7, plus-1.97 betting units) have the best Under record in the National League at 15-7-1.
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The Cubs (9-15, minus-3.29 units) are profitably under as well at 12-10-2. It’s not unlike that Giants-Dodgers game, except for the venue change.
Tyler The Non-Run Creator
The similarities don’t end there. One of the two teams has yet to announce their starting pitcher; in this case, it’s Chicago, who find themselves short in the rotation with Wade Miley (elbow) unavailable and Drew Smyly on the bereavement list.
Not a problem. Chicago’s bullpen isn’t quite as strong as the one that carried the Dodgers to victory Wednesday night, but it’s decent enough at No. 12 overall (0.8 WAR) on the Fangraphs chart.
Meanwhile, L.A. has Tyler Anderson (3.15 FIP) ready to take the mound Friday; he was one of the two Tylers who helped the Under get paid last week when the Dodgers beat Tyler Alexander and the Detroit Tigers 5-1 (Under 8.5).
We Need A Catcher
Here’s one important difference to consider aside from the venue change: Both teams had Thursday off.
Those two bullpens will be fresher than what we had to deal with for Wednesday’s game, which we hope will keep the Cubbies from lighting our money on fire.
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Chicago’s batting order is also weaker than San Francisco’s. The Cubs check in at No. 18 overall, which is only two spots behind the Giants, but Chicago’s 2.6 WAR at the plate is almost a full win below San Fran’s 3.4 WAR.
And catcher Willson Contreras (.740 OPS) appears to be dealing with some kind of middle-body injury that is throwing him off. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
MLB Pick: Under
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
