College Football Picks for Week 6: Bearcats to Claw Through Cyclones in Cincinnati
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LT Profits
- October 3, 2025
This 2025 College Football season is just flying by, as we have already reached Week 6 of a season that seems to have just begun.
While this big Saturday card has only two matchups of ranked teams, that does not mean there is no value to be found elsewhere. We are here with our three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted College Football odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model and make sure to set your alarms with all three of our selections for Saturday, having early kick-offs at 12 Noon ET.
Our games involve two ranked teams with #14 Iowa State visiting Cincinnati and #22 Illinois travelling to Purdue. And we searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, October 04, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT
While Iowa State is the ranked and undefeated team in this matchup, Cincinnati is listed as a small favorite here. We agree with that evaluation and are backing the Bearcats as scant home chalk.
Cincinnati Capable of Running Up Score
The Bearcats lost their season opener by three points to Nebraska but have since rattled off three straight wins while averaging 47.0 points in the three victories. Granted, that includes a 70-0 win over Northwestern State of the FCS.
Cincinnati was still great offensively vs. FBS opponents, scoring 37 points against Kansas and 34 vs. Bowling Green. The Cats rank 17th in the country in total offense while averaging a very nice 191.5 rushing yards and 288.0 passing yards.
They are led by quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has already passed for over 1,000 yards while completing 69.2% of his passes and averaging an impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt, with 10 touchdown passes against one interception.
Sorby and his talented group of receivers are facing an Iowa State defense that has been unable to generate a pass rush, ranking a pathetic 125th in Pressure Rating per PFF. Moreover, the Cyclones’ secondary has now taken a hit with season-ending injuries to star cornerbacks Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper.
Can Iowa State be Trusted on the Road?
Yes, Iowa State had a nice home win over Arizona last week to improve to 5-0, but their first four wins did not age well with Kansas State, South Dakota, Arkansas State and Iowa all struggling at times this year.
Plus, four of the five wins came at home, with the lone road matchup being an unexpected struggle, winning 24-16 at Arkansas State as 21-point favorites in what was a 1-point game in the fourth quarter.
Quarterback Rocco Becht is back for his senior year after passing for over 3,500 yards last season, but that was with two 1,000-yard receivers at his disposal who have since departed for the NFL.
As a result, Becht is well off last year’s pace with only 860 passing yards through five games.
Furthermore, the Cincinnati defense should get a boost this week with future NFL lineman Dontay Corleone expected to return from injury.
While some may question a ranked undefeated team being a small underdog vs. an unranked team, we get it with Iowa State not beating much so far and Cincinnati’s offensive firepower.
Bet the Bearcats at home.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, October 04, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT
Illinois may be in one of the worst scheduling spots any team will deal with all year this Saturday at Purdue. Add the vast improvement of the Boilermakers compared to last season and we are taking the points catching nearly double digits at home.
Horrendous Sandwich Scheduling Spot for Illinois
The Illini come in at 4-1 after splitting matchups with two ranked teams in the last two weeks. The last game was an exhilarating 34-32 upset win over USC, with the game-winning field goal coming as time expired.
Now, Illinois is playing for a sixth straight week without having their bye week yet, and they could already have an eye on #1 Ohio State visiting Champaign next Saturday, making this the most treacherous sandwich spot of the year.
This is eerily reminiscent of last season when Purdue was sandwiched in between four ranked opponents for Illinois, and the Illini needed overtime to prevail 50-49.
Illinois has been rather lucky this season with a +5 turnover differential and by going 5-for-5 on fourth down conversions. That has helped disguise allowing nearly as many yards as they have gained, with an overall yardage differential of just 376.0/374.8 per game.
Whole New Purdue Team after 2024 Disaster
The Boilermakers tore everything up after that disastrous season last year, overhauling their roster and bringing in a new head coach in Barry Odom.
Quarterback Ryan Browne is playing at a high level not seen at Purdue in several years, passing for 1,036 yards in four games while averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt with a 63.1% completion rate.
He has led the Boilers to a 2-2 start, surpassing last year’s win total, and they were also competitive in a covering loss to USC.
Purdue is averaging a commendable 28.0 points per game after struggling in all phases last year, and we see Browne having more success here against an Illinois team ranked just 96th in pass defense allowing 242.4 yards per game.
Furthermore, that defense against the pass figures to be worse after the loss of star cornerback Xavier Scott.
To top things off, the Boilermakers are coming off their bye week, not only making them better rested but also allowing for an extra week of preparation.
So, besides the obvious disadvantageous scheduling spot for the Illini, their metrics do not support their 4-1 record, while the Purdue quarterback Browns can exploit the Illinois secondary with added prep time. Take the points with Purdue.
Army Black Knights vs. UAB Blazers
Saturday, October 04, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT
Army is the usual one-dimensional team it has always been this year, and we feel the Black Knights are overlays at this price without a competent passing game.
We are taking the points with UAB on Saturday.
Large Dropoff in Quarterback Play for Army
Army was a surprise last season, posting a 12-2 record that culminated with an AAC Championship and a win in the Independence Bowl. However, that was while getting their best quarterback play in years from departed Bryson Daily and having the best offensive line in the country.
The Knights have downgraded on both fronts this season, with their quarterback tandem of Dewayne Coleman and Cale Hellums combining for just 94.0 passing yards per game and a significant drop-off at the offensive tackle positions.
This has led to a 1-3 start, already surpassing Army’s loss total for all last season.
The running game remains potent at 286.5 rushing yards per game, but that unit may not have its usual success against a defensive coordinator that knows how to stop a triple-option attack.
UAB Coming off Bye and Already Faced Navy
UAB comes in with the better record at 2-2, and the Blazers are coming off a bye week, which helps when preparing to face the triple-option.
Perhaps more importantly, the defensive coordinator for UAB is Steve Russ, who held the same position at Air Force for six years. Thus, he has experience defending Army’s style of offense, not to mention watching it from his offense those six years, adding to the familiarity.
It also helped that the Blazers already faced the triple-option once this year against Navy in a game that was tied at 24-24 before two late touchdowns resulted in a 38-24 UAB loss.
More importantly, we see the UAB offense being able to move the ball at will here, especially through the air. The Blazers are averaging 320.0 passing yards per game to rank 15th in the land, and they are also ranked in the Top 20 in Passing Success Rate per PFF.
That makes for a nice matchup facing a Navy defense ranked 127th in Defensive Pass Success Rate.
Given UAB’s expected ability to put points on the board through the air against a suspect defense and Russ’s abundance of knowledge about the Army triple-option offense, we would not be shocked by an upset here. However, our official play is betting on UAB with the points.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
