NFL Pick: 2023 Cleveland Browns Under 9½ Wins (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Cleveland Browns declined in wins for the 2nd year in a row under head coach Kevin Stefanski after a disappointing 7-10 finish. Mediocrity on both sides of the ball did little to lift the team despite more stellar performances from running back Nick Chubb and defensive end Myles Garrett.
But Chubb, Garrett, and embattled quarterback Deshaun Watson all turn 28 years old this season. Quarterbacks can play a long time, but the biological clocks on the prime for those other positions are ticking, and Watson has to show a lot more this year. He was every bit as bad as Russell Wilson (Broncos) and Matt Ryan (Colts) were on their new teams in 2022.
The Browns have to contend with a very difficult division, but the offshore sportsbooks are still giving them a line of 9.5 wins. Is this an easy under, or will the Browns finally step up again this year?
Changes That Matter
The Browns are hoping a full offseason helps Watson get back on track. On defense, a new coordinator and teammate for Myles Garrett could produce better results.
Another Chance for Watson
It is imperative that the Browns start seeing a return on their huge investment in Watson, who signed a fully guaranteed $230 million contract. That deal is going to be restructured multiple times, but it is putting a lot of faith in someone who was 4-12 as a starter in his last year with Houston.
This team will go as far as Watson goes. A lot of quarterbacks would love to be in an offense like this:
- One of the best offensive lines in the league.
- Amari Cooper may not be elite, but he is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver.
- David Njoku looked good at tight end last year.
- While Kareem Hunt is gone, Nick Chubb is still one of the best running backs in the league and averages 5.0 yards per carry every year.
- Elijah Moore is a good receiver to try further developing from the Jets.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has improved throughout his career.
- Cedric Tillman has potential as a 3rd-round rookie wideout.
Stefanski understands the value of play-action passing. If you look at Brissett’s 2022 season, he averaged 9.2 yards per attempt with play-action and only 6.5 without it.
Watson had a similar boost on a smaller sample size in 2022. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt with play-action and 5.9 without it. He also completed just 53.8% of his passes with a 69.3 passer rating without play-action. Those are abysmal numbers.
Watson will not have any excuses for rust or lack of practice time this year. He also has to work on his career-long problem of being a sack merchant. Watson took a sack on 10.5% of his passes last year, the 2nd-worst season of his career. Brissett’s sack rate was just 6.1%. The quarterback must be held accountable for sacks, especially when playing behind one of the best lines.
Better Defense?
Defensive coordinator Joe Woods is out. Replacing him is veteran Jim Schwartz, who has a reputation for being aggressive, if not dirty. The players should like this change, and Myles Garrett especially will like the new look up front along the defensive line.
Garrett had almost half of his team’s sacks last year (16 of 34). No one else had more than 3.0 sacks. That is why the Browns acquired Za’Darius Smith from the Vikings, and he should be a very good complement to Garrett on the other side.
Unlike Jadeveon Clowney, Smith can finish plays as he has 36 sacks since 2019, and that includes a 2021 season in Green Bay where he missed 16 games because of injury.
The Browns could also be looking better against the run with defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. While it is true that Tomlinson and Smith did little to help Minnesota’s defense from being terrible last year, that defense had a ton of issues in the secondary as its main downfall. Tomlinson and Smith should be good for the Browns this year.
The Cleveland secondary will return a lot of familiar faces, but the Browns added starting safety Juan Thornhill from the Chiefs where he won a pair of Super Bowl rings since 2019. He had 3 interceptions in each Super Bowl-winning season.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Browns should be looking at a better offense and better defense than last season, but that does not always equate to a better record. You have to compare the schedule and acknowledge things like health and luck play a big factor.
For example, the Browns only had 2 wins last year against quarterbacks who were not backups or benched. One was Tom Brady during the worst season of his career for a losing Tampa Bay team, and the other was Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow in the team’s best game of the year by far, a 32-13 win on Halloween.
The Browns split the division series with each AFC North rival. They went 3-0 at home and beat the Steelers without T.J. Watt and Kenny Pickett, beat the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, and beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson on a day where even the great Justin Tucker missed a pair of field goals. Does any of those things happen again?
Maybe, but the Browns will have to be significantly better to go over 9.5 wins in an AFC that has so many other contenders and quarterbacks who are just better than Watson these days.
Challenging Path
Beyond the 6 AFC North games, the Browns have to play the 49ers (Week 6), an elite NFC team. They play a couple of AFC playoff favorites in the Jaguars (Week 14) and Jets (Week 17) later in the season. They have to go to Seattle (Week 8) and Denver (Week 12), tough places to play even if those teams may be in the same mediocre range as Cleveland this year.
The Browns should run wild and look good against teams like the Texans, Bears, Cardinals, Colts, and Rams. But can they get enough wins in the division and against those playoff-caliber teams to get over 9.5 wins?
Do not count on it. Not only is it hard being the 3rd-best team in a division, but the Browns have finished behind Pittsburgh in every season since 1990. Improvement for the Browns can still mean 8-9 or 9-8, but that is a lofty record for a team that can finish last in the AFC North. Take the under at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: 2023 Cleveland Browns Under 9½ Wins (-135) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
2022 Recap: With Respect to Jacoby Brissett
You have to give Jacoby Brissett credit for starting in situations that were anything but glamorous. He got his start with the Patriots in 2016 when Tom Brady was suspended (Deflategate) and Jimmy Garoppolo was injured.
He was the Colts’ starter in 2017 when Andrew Luck missed an entire season with a mysterious injury, then it was Brissett again in 2019 when Luck shocked everyone by retiring in August.
Last year, Brissett knew he was just keeping the seat warm for 11 games while Deshaun Watson served his suspension for sexual misconduct allegations by dozens of women. Despite the 4-7 record, Brissett played the best ball of his career. Brissett’s 62.0 QBR ranked No. 8 in the league, easily his best season.
- Through 11 games with Brissett, the Browns were 5th in total offense (376.9 yards per game) and 11th in scoring (23.9 points per game).
- In 6 games with Watson, the Browns were 25th in total offense (298.0 yards per game) and 27th in scoring (16.3 points per game).
QB Switch’s Effects on Browns’ Scoring
Even those scoring numbers are misleading because the Browns had 4 return touchdowns last season and 3 of them came in the game in Houston – Watson did not lead a single touchdown drive in his debut game.
With Brissett, the Browns looked like a competent offense with Chubb chasing a rushing title, Amari Cooper looking the part of a No. 1 receiver, and even tight end David Njoku finally having his breakout year.
But when Watson took over:
- Chubb stopped scoring touchdowns and only hit 100 yards rushing once.
- Cooper dropped from 72 yards per game to 61.3 yards per game.
- Njoku dropped from 51.6 yards per game to 32.8 yards per game.
Assessing Watson’s Impact
Did the Browns play tougher defenses in poorer weather conditions with Watson? Yes, that was true aside from the bomb in Houston, a putrid defense in ideal weather. Did Watson, who had not played since the 2020 season ended, have more rust to shake off than Brissett despite both joining the team in 2022? Yes, but that is also by his own doing, which he still has never shown any contrition for.
When Watson believes he can do nothing wrong, it is hard to give him a pass when his play flat out stunk after the offense looked good with Brissett. Watson’s 38.3 QBR last season would have ranked 29th between Mac Jones (38.4) and Davis Mills (35.0).
That number will have to be a lot higher in 2023 if the Browns are going to accomplish anything in a stacked AFC.
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