The Golden State Warriors (47-22) look to keep rolling against the Boston Celtics (41-28) on ESPN this Wednesday evening.
Boston lost to Dallas on a late three on Sunday to snap a five-game winning streak. After a five-game losing streak, the Warriors have won four in a row and are close to being at full strength for the first time in years. Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
The Warriors (35-30-4 ATS) are a 3.5-point favorite over the Celtics (33-33-3 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. Through 69 games, these teams are the top two in Defensive Rating with Boston (105.6) barely edging out Golden State (105.9). Boston has had the better of play lately, but can it win on the road against a top team?
Warriors: Curry’s Birthday Bash and Draymond’s Return
The Warriors added to Washington’s rough week with a 126-112 win on Monday night. Stephen Curry celebrated his 34th birthday in style. After taking a season-low in shots and only scoring eight points against Milwaukee over the weekend, Curry stepped up with 47 points and seven made threes on his birthday.
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The game also marked the return of Draymond Green, who had not been active since the beginning of January. Green came off the bench instead of starting, played 20 minutes, and he contributed six points, seven rebounds, and six assists.
The Warriors are plus-4.4 points better in Net Rating with Green on the court this season according to Basketball-Reference.
Green’s playing time should only increase from there, which is great news for the comfort of Curry, who saw his role change in trying to account for Green’s all-around usefulness. But is it as statistically significant as one would expect?
In the recent 27 games where Green was absent, Curry averaged 23.8 points, 6.8 assists, and shot 45.4% from the field and 36.2% from three. In Curry’s first 35 games this season when he was a leading MVP candidate, he averaged 26.8 points, 6.1 assists, and shot 42.0% from the field and 38.8% from three.
That’s interesting that his FG% was that low earlier in the season, but the threes came easier for him with Green around.
But Monday marked the first time the Warriors got a significant amount of action with Curry, Green, and Klay Thompson on the court together since the 2019 NBA Finals. They may be past their primes, but throw in a shooter like Jordan Poole, who has topped 20 points in seven straight games, and this team can be dangerous again.
The Warriors have won each of the last four games by at least 11 points, but December’s 111-107 win over Boston was a tough one that the Celtics will look to rectify.
Celtics: Rested and Ready
The Celtics were 14-15 when these teams last met in December, a time when Golden State was 24-5 and the talk of the league with Phoenix. But since then, the Warriors have slipped a bit while Boston is 27-13 over the last 40 games.
Boston gave the Warriors a battle in December with these top-ranked defenses holding each other under 44% shooting from the field. The Celtics also missed nine free throws in a 4-point loss. Curry scored 30 points, but he was only 8-of-21 from the field and had six turnovers.
Andrew Wiggins had a big game with 27 points, but he missed Monday’s game and is questionable to play. That is borderline irrelevant with the return of Thompson and the way Poole (also inactive against Boston in December) has been shooting lately.
On the other hand, the Celtics have seen Jayson Tatum put on a scoring clinic. Out of the All-Star break, Tatum is averaging 33.3 points per game and shooting 47.5% from the field. Boston is 7-2 and only lost on a late three to a good Dallas team on Sunday. Boston is 16-11 ATS after a loss this season, the sixth-best record in the league in that split.
The Warriors are 10-12-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage this season, but Boston is only 4-6-2 ATS with two or three days of rest.
Prediction
Boston is only 6-8-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Warriors are the fourth-best home team at covering the spread (58.8%). This should be another low-scoring game and not a blowout, but for my NBA picks, I like the Warriors to deliver at home with the Big Three back together as they should be.
NBA Pick: Warriors -3.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
