The Boston Celtics are in the midst of a tough back-to-back as they travel north of the border to play the Toronto Raptors. With several players likely missing for Boston, can we trust the Raptors to cover this steaming spread? Below, we’ll break down the NBA odds and share a winning pick!
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors
Monday, March 28, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena
Celtics’ Back-to-Back Prowess
The Celtics' second half of the season has been more than impressive, it’s been a culmination of a lot of different variables all clicking. At the start of the season, we wondered if rookie head coach Ime Udoka could figure out this young and talented roster. We wondered if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could coexist. We wondered if an aging Al Horford still had it.
We wondered if their bench was too shallow, or if their young players could step up and be legitimate rotation players, or even starters. On and on went the speculation that the Celtics were just mid. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Even I was guilty of fading Boston early in the year, only to learn the hard way that this team is for real.
Fast forward to almost the end of the regular season and the C’s own the league’s best defense, they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA and they could play spoiler in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
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However, tonight they have some issues. While I think they can overcome some of them, their personnel situation is not great tonight. Jayson Tatum is “uncertain,” on the second night of a back-to-back after logging 34 minutes in a blowout. The word “uncertain,” being used in this context is almost tipping Boston’s hand. Tatum probably isn’t playing tonight.
On top of that, big men Al Horford (doubtful) and Robert Williams III (already ruled out) aren’t going to be in the lineup, leaving the C’s incredibly thin upfront. They’ll have to rely on Daniel Theis and Grant Williams as their primary centers, which will affect their defense a lot here. This is compounded after playing last night.
That being said, the Raptors are one of the smaller lineups in the NBA and Boston has been so good on offense playing on no rest that it makes their full game and derivative spreads look pretty appetizing here on Monday.
The Sharp Pick
Boston has been incredible on no rest this season. It may not be evident through their ATS record, which is 5-7-1 playing on no rest, but a deeper dive into their advanced metrics and you can see how good their offense has been, even when tired.
The Celtics average 115.7 points per 100 possessions this season across 13 games played on no rest. While Toronto has been solid in these spots where they are favored at home, it’s starting to get out of control, even if Tatum is given the go-ahead to play.
So, for me tonight, I’m going to wait and see on Tatum’s status, but, assuming he is out, I’m waiting until that is made official and then once the line moves more in favor of the Raptors, I’ll fire at the C’s in the first half. While I do think Boston can still cover, even if Tatum sits, their legs will likely be really tired in the second half, so I’m sticking with the first half here.
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Not only is Boston one of the best offenses on no rest, but on the road and in first halves, the Celtics also own the league’s best defensive rating, holding opponents to 102.4 points per 100 possessions.
Right now, as of writing this, the Celtics are +2 dogs in the first half lines and if Tatum is ruled out, for my NBA pick, I fully expect that to go up to +3 or even +3.5.
If for some reason Tatum is ruled in, just grab the +2 that’s on offer now, but if not, wait until closer to tip-off once Tatum gets ruled out and grab that full possession, or even more than one possession line on Boston.
NBA Pick: Boston Celtics +2 1st Half (-110) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
