The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers send two of their best pitchers on Saturday night in a potential postseason preview. Here’s a complete preview, including updated MLB odds and picks.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, October 02, 2021 – 09:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Brewers already clinched the National League Central but they want to make a statement and help Corbin Burnes’ NL Cy Young case. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are two games behind the Giants in the National West and they would love to win the division to avoid playing the Cardinals in the Wild Card game. LA also wants the victory to help Julio Urias win his 20th game this season.
As mentioned above, the Brewers are going with Corbin Burnes (1.55 FIP), while the Dodgers respond with Julio Urias (3.16 FIP). The Brewers are 19-8 in Burnes’ 27 starts, giving bettors 7.4 units of profit. The Dodgers are up a massive 16.1 units on a 25-6 record in Urias’ 31 starts.
Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.29 ERA) has won his last nine decisions and he was lights out in September, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four starts. Burnes gave up one earned run on five hits with nine strikeouts and one walk in a 2-1 home win against the Mets last Saturday and he’s 7-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.
Julio Urias (19-3, 3.01 ERA) was also lights out in September with a 4-0 record and a 2.20 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts. Urias threw five scoreless innings of five-hit ball with three strikeouts and one walk in a 3-0 road win against the Diamondbacks last Sunday and he is 6-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 13 home starts this season.
Prediction
The Dodgers opened at-129 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -138 based on our calculations (they suggest the Dodgers will win this game 58 percent of the time). The projections say there is some value on this moneyline but the Under might be the way to go.
Saturday’s weather report calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high-80s at game time with 15 percent humidity and the 6 mph winds are expected to come blowing out to
Milwaukee’s projected lineup has five batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent and Urias has struck out 25.6 percent of the batters he’s faced. And in case Burnes and/or Urias have short outings, both teams have excellent bullpens. The Brewers rank 5th in Win Probability Added (WPA) from the bullpen at 5.67 while the Dodgers relievers lead the majors with 9.38 Win Probability Added (WPA).
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
