The Toronto Blue Jays have taken a big chunk out of the New York Yankees. Which team goes into our MLB picks for Friday’s matchup?
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, September 09, 2021 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The regression angels have come for the Toronto Blue Jays. One of the most talented teams in the majors, the Jays saw their Wild Card chances dip below 10 percent after a troubling mid-August slump. But here they are back in the mix at 76-62 (plus-2.88 betting units), using their potent batting order and much-improved rotation to rattle off 10 wins in their past 11 games. Maple syrup and back bacon for everyone~!
On the other side of the coin, regression has been a total you-know-what for the New York Yankees (78-61, minus-3.24 units). They put themselves back into the Wild Card hunt with 13 straight wins, three of those coming in extra innings and another three by a single run. It didn’t seem right at the time, and sure enough, the Yankees have lost nine of their last 11, including the first three games of their series versus the Blue Jays.
So why do the early consensus reports for Thursday’s finale show unanimous support for New York as –110 home faves on the MLB odds board at BetOnline?
He Came Dancing Across The Water
It must be because of our main man, Nestor Cortes Jr (3.63 FIP). There’s only one Yankees starter who hasn’t been effing things up lately, and it’s their spot starter, who happens to be a junkball maestro. We’ve had many opportunities to look at Cortes in this space; our first two cracks at fading him were unprofitable, but we did right by taking the Under in his last start versus the Baltimore Orioles. Final score: New York 4, Baltimore 3 (Under 9).
To be fair, we’ve been intrigued with Cortes from the outset. He’s an outlier if there ever was one, and the Yankees have won five of his seven starts with the Under at 5-2, beating both good and bad teams alike. The computers aren’t impressed, though. FiveThirtyEight has Cortes rated 38 Elo points worse than Toronto’s starter, Jose Berrios (3.49 FIP).
That makes Thursday’s matchup a coin toss according to their projections, which leaves Toronto worthy of a small bet at +105 on the MLB lines at YouWager – if you don’t think Nate Silver’s crew did Cortes dirty with their analysis.
Maybe they did. Meanwhile, Berrios has been up-and-down for the Blue Jays since coming over from the Minnesota Twins ahead of the trade deadline. They’re just 3-4 in his seven appearances with the Under at 4-3, only three of which were quality starts.
We could bail on the spread and put the Under in Thursday’s MLB picks; there’s a total of 9.5 runs on the board at Heritage, with their usual bargain-priced juice at –108. But it’s hard for us to give up on Toronto here, even if they are facing Cortes. What a killer.
MLB Pick: Jays +105 at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
