Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football Picks: Is It Josh Allen’s Year?

A Prime Time Rematch Awaits

These teams last met in Week 4 of the 2022 season, and the Ravens blew a 20-3 lead at home as Buffalo came back to win 23-20. Lamar Jackson had some costly misfires in the fourth quarter that day. Before that, we haven’t seen these teams meet since the 2020 divisional round where Jackson threw a pick-6, and the Ravens fell 17-3.

Do we need to put Buffalo on the list of problematic teams for these Ravens? They’ll have their shot in prime time in what could be a great game.

The Bills are a 2.5-point road underdog with a total of 46.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. We have some thoughts on the matchup and our favorite NFL picks for it.

Buffalo Looks Like the Best Team in the NFL

Since falling behind 17-3 to Arizona in Week 1, the Bills have outscored the opposition 31-11, 31-10 in Miami, and 47-10 against the Jaguars on Monday night. This is what the Bills tend to do, and some questioned if they’d keep doing it after trading Stefon Diggs, but Josh Allen looks poised to put together his most complete season yet.

Allen leads all quarterbacks in most efficiency metrics this season, and he has yet to throw an interception. In fact, a strip-sack of Allen in Week 1 is the offense’s only turnover, and we know this team is extra dangerous when it’s protecting the ball.

Offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over halfway through last season when the team fired Ken Dorsey as the scapegoat for those turnovers, but it sure looks like Brady and Allen have put in the offseason work to create something special with this 2024 offense.

Who do you double team in this offense when Allen can get the ball to anyone, not to mention run for a first down himself? Allen is 14-for-14 when targeting Khalil Shakir, who is apparently the new No. 1 option in Buffalo. But they also have James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, and rookie wideout Keon Coleman just caught another touchdown on Monday night.

This is to say nothing of the defense that also continues to look stellar under coach Sean McDermott. Damar Hamlin got his first career interception from Trevor Lawrence on Monday night, and Von Miller is still picking up sacks at 35 years old. In back-to-back weeks, the Bills left Miami and Jacksonville seriously contemplating why they gave Tua Tagovailoa and Lawrence as much money as they did.

The Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East, but it’s also true that the Ravens are a much tougher test than the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars.

Ravens Still Shaky in 28-25 Win in Dallas

The Ravens got back to basics in Dallas, leaning on a running game that produced 274 yards as Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson ran wild on the Dallas defense. Jackson only attempted 15 passes, the fewest in any full game in his career, but he was efficient and very productive with them.

Jackson also had to put the game away with a late throw after the defense had some real problems in upholding a 28-6 lead, something we’ve seen this team struggle with the last 4 years. Remember, the Bills already have a 17-point comeback win in Baltimore in 2022, and the Bills are not known for big comebacks in the Allen era.

So, you feel confident about the running game getting on track for the Ravens, but the defense is definitely far from the No. 1 status it had last year under coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is doing some impressive things with the Seahawks as their rookie head coach.

For the 1st time in team history, the Ravens have started a season with 3 games where they both scored and allowed at least 20 points. That’s not typical of Baltimore at all, and now this defense must deal with the highest-scoring team and an offense where it’s hard to get a good read on what they’re doing as things look different for Buffalo, and the Ravens do not play them as frequently as they do the Chiefs, Bengals, Steelers, etc.

Bills Should Keep Scoring on Baltimore

You could take your stab at the total of 46.5 points in this game, but the best pick is really the Buffalo team over as you just don’t know what the Ravens will do when faced with a defense that has harassed Jackson before.

But the Bills are averaging 37.3 points per game and have looked so efficient with Allen protecting the ball. They also are cashing in when the ball’s in the red zone as they score a touchdown on 76.9% of their opportunities.

We have already seen the Ravens allow 27 points to the Chiefs, 26 points to Gardner Minshew and the Raiders, and 25 points to Dallas after holding a big lead. Maybe they’ll allow 24 this week to the Bills if the pattern continues, but that’s still enough to hit Buffalo’s team over of 22.5 points.

That’s our favorite pick in this game as Allen finds a way to keep his hot start going as he shreds through a Baltimore defense that isn’t up to par yet.

NFL Pick: Bills Team Total Over 22.5 Points (-115) at Bovada

Bills Team Total Over 22.5 Points (-115)

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