The NBA playoffs continue tonight and the top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. One game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in: Philadelphia vs. Toronto. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for this game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, April 28, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena
Doc Rivers
There are two major problems with Doc Rivers' career coaching in the playoffs that are relevant to this game: his team's tendency to collapse and his struggle to make adjustments. Regarding the former, the teams that he coaches repeatedly blow large series leads. As one of many examples, in 2015, Doc's Clippers led Houston 3-1 and were up by as many as 19 points in Game 5. The Clippers lost that series.
In 2020, Denver won three games in a row to advance past the Clippers. These collapses produce broader reflections on Doc's shortcomings as a coach. He makes egregiously questionable decisions, like the one to double Denver's Nikola Jokic despite Jokic's characteristic ability to pass out of double teams.
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Doc, moreover, struggles to make adjustments. While the opposing head coach will figure out what works against whatever team Doc is coaching, Doc will just keep doing the same thing. This is especially true during a given game. Doc is not as good as thinking on the fly.
Toronto's Adjustments
Toronto has come back in this series because it does have a head coach in Nick Nurse who ably makes adjustments. Since Fred VanVleet's injury -- he is listed as doubtful for tonight's Game 6 with a left hip flexor strain and his absence would be a great thing for Toronto -- the Raptors have opted to play bigger. They are employing more length and this length is arguably the single biggest reason why the 76ers are struggling with Toronto.
Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, and Joel Embiid are among those hurt by Raptor length. Toronto is able to contain Harden's famous ISOs with single coverage. Containing Harden through the work of one defender allows Toronto to devote more attention elsewhere, especially to Maxey and Embiid.
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When guarding Harden, they are also forcing him to shoot and drive rather than to pass, which is why Harden's assist-to-turnover ratio has declined relative to what he did in Game 3 and especially Game 1. They are also sending multiple defenders at Maxey, forcing him to become a passer. Hence, he is scoring fewer points per game. As for Embiid, they are making him catch the ball outside the paint by applying pressure to the entry pass.
To the same end, they are double-teaming him when he catches the ball. They also put multiple bodies on him in shot attempts to prevent him from killing them on the glass. On offense, they are likewise wearing Embiid down, forcing him to try to overcome his lack of foot speed to guard multiple possessions. Embiid is thus more tired on the offensive end as well where he becomes less of a threat.
Philadelphia's Response?
Philadelphia needs to find a way to preserve Embiid, but it is hard to do this given the fact that Toronto's offense is targeting specifically him with their quick players. Earlier in the series, Embiid was establishing a position deep near the basket. Again, I don't know what Embiid is supposed to do when Toronto devotes so much attention to keeping him from gaining comfort.
Harden needs to respond by playing better, but he hasn't been able to handle the Raptors' length which is keeping him limited in one-on-one situations. Philadelphia's ongoing collapse also involves a regression to the mean. In the last two games of the series, the 76ers are converting open three-point attempts and especially wide-open ones at a lower rate.
During the regular season, they converted wide-open threes with 39 percent frequency. In Games 1-3, they made wide-open threes at a 48.1 percent clip. However, they converted wide-open threes with only 30.3 percent frequency in Games 4 and 5. Overall this series, they are still overachieving with its wide-open threes.
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Missed shot attempts are huge because they not only reduce their offensive point total but also help out Toronto's transition game by creating long rebound opportunities. The 76ers' regression to the mean appears symptomatic of their general collapse.
Not that the extra uptick in missed threes is merely psychological, it seems to fit a broader picture where the Raptors are hurting Philadelphia's rhythm on the offensive end. The Raptors appear more "due" to make more threes because their wide open and absolutely their open three-point conversion rates have been so low in Games 4 and 5.
But also the fact that they are bothering the 76ers creates this reality where Philadelphia's reduced ability to make threes relative to what it was doing earlier in the season and relative to Toronto's potential from behind the arc is further reducing its chances to close out the series.
Parlay Verdict
For my NBA picks, I like Toronto given its adjustments on both ends of the court. I like the 'over' because Matisse Thybulle is ineligible to play in Toronto given his vaccination status.
With 10 points in three games, Thybulle is rather a liability on the offensive end, although he is known for his strong defense. Without him on the court, Philadelphia fields a worse defense but a better offense.
Toronto's improvement in three-point efficiency -- it has to come at some point -- will further help the scoring in this NBA playoffs game. For the above reasons, parlay the Raptors and the 'over' for your best bets. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Parlay Picks
- Toronto Raptors +1.5 (-105)
- Over 211 (-110)
NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+273) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
