The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are dead even in the NBA odds for Game 3 in Dallas. In a must-win game for the Mavs, can we expect them to take this one at home?
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 06, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Suns Try To Step On Necks Friday
The Phoenix Suns are on a warpath to try and get back to the Finals and the talented Mavericks have been no match for them yet in this series.
Now that we’re shifting venues, the Mavs have to win this game to avoid going down 3-0. No team in NBA history has ever come back from such a deficit.
That being said, the sportsbooks see that the Mavs have to win this game.
What the Suns Can Expect?
Phoenix has to know they will get the Mavs’ best effort, as well as the league’s, who want more games and more revenue in the pockets of the owners.
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Don’t expect the Suns to get calls in this game from the refs.
Can the Mavs Make It?
I do think Dallas will win this game, but I mentioned after getting burned by Dallas ATS in Game 1 that I was avoiding fading the Suns full game for the rest of this series.
- We got that cashback in Game 2 with a nice first-half play on Dallas, but I’m avoiding them first half in this game and instead betting on the total tonight.
- At 219.5 points and dropping, sharps and the books alike expect a physical game, with a slower pace and a ton of defense, especially from Dallas.
- At home this season, Dallas ranked sixth-best in the league defensively, allowing their opponents to average just 106.8 points per 100 possessions.
- In the first halves, the Mavs were even better with a defensive rating of 105.1 at home.
- They have followed suit at home in the playoffs.
Even though the sample size is small, the Mavs held Utah’s offense (one of the better offenses in the NBA this season) to just 102.9 points per 100 possessions in three games.
The Sharp Pick
For our NBA pick, I do think the under on the first half total is a nice bet too. I’ll have some on it as well, but I like the full game total a little more with it being close to 220 points.
We’ve seen some crazy fourth quarters in this series already and from both teams.
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One constant through is in Game 1 and Game 2 neither team played a ton of defense in the final 12 minutes of the game.
That has to get better and with these betting odds, I fully expect the game to say close, unlike Game 2.
Do the Teams Are Reaching 105 points Tonight?
That should help keep the pace down and defense up. I think we could easily see one of these teams fail to reach 105 points tonight.
Phoenix was good on the road defensively this regular season but that hasn’t been the case in their three road games in the first round.
They definitely sense the momentum and will want to secure that with a win tonight.
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Add in the Mavs playing at the league’s slowest pace at home this season and the under looks even better if we get just 93 or 94 possessions for each team.
Dallas has played at a pace of 92.3 in the playoffs, so the under looks ripe for tonight's best bets.
NBA Pick: Under 219.5 (-115) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
