Today we preview the American League East clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, study the MLB odds and share our MLB picks.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, September 07, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Depleted Red Sox in Trouble?
Boston has 11 players on the COVID-19 list, including Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes, Kike Hernandez, Nick Pivetta and Christian Arroyo and at 40-17, Tampa Bay has the best record in the majors since July 1st. The Rays lead the Yankees by 8.5 games lead in the AL East the Astros by seven games for the best record in the American League. At +1000, the Rays currently have the fourth-best odds to win the World Series at GTBets (visit our GTBets Review), despite having the second-best record in baseball.
The Red Sox are just 28-30 since July 1st and the Blue Jays, Mariners and Athletics are all after them in the race for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Not having Xander Bogaerts (131 Weighted Runs Created Plus) is a tough blow but he was struggling at the plate as of late and Bobby Dalbec, Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber have all stepped up in his absence.
The Rays will give the ball to Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) This will be his 32nd appearance this season (seventh start). Rasmussen allowed one earned run on three hits with five strikeouts and zero walks over four innings to get a no-decision in a 3-2 loss against the Red Sox last Wednesday. The right-hander has pitched well against Boston this season, going 0-0 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings over four appearances (two starts). The current Red Sox lineup is just 6-for-31 (.139) against him.
Eduardo Rodriguez (11-7, 4.88 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) will make his 27th start of the season for the Red Sox. The left-hander threw six scoreless innings against the Rays last Thursday, surrendering four hits with six strikeouts and one walk in a 4-0 win. Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in three starts against the Rays this season.
Prediction
The Rays opened at -110 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -113 based on our calculations (they suggest Tampa Bay will win this game 53 percent of the time).
Rays No. 1 prospect Wander Franco (129 Weighted Runs Created Plus) is the player to watch on Tuesday. Franco’s 129 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is 29 percent above the league average of 100 and he is batting .347 and leads the Rays in hits, runs, and doubles in his last 30 games. Franco has reached base in 36 straight games and tonight he can break Mickey Mantle’s record on-base streak for a 20-year-old in the American League.
The rookie phenom is 2-for-7 (.286) with one home run and four RBIs against Eduardo Rodriguez while Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena also hit him well. Lowe is 4-for-13 (.308) with three home runs and four RBIs and Arozarena is 3-for-9 (.333). Boston’s projected lineup has two hitters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340, two hitters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185
The Tampa Bay Rays rank No. 8 in hitting value (6.0 WAR) according to FanGraphs, one spot ahead of the Boston Red Sox at 5.9 WAR and the Tampa Bay bullpen leads the majors at 7.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to FanGraphs. Boston will be without their closer and some other key members of their lineup and Tampa Bay is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Keep that bet size small.
MLB Pick: Rays -103 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
