The momentum in the American League Championship Series continues to swing back and forth like an amusement park pirate ship ride as both teams get ready to take the field today, let’s get into the MLB odds for this one.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 – 05:08 PM EDT at Fenway Park
On Tuesday morning, there appeared to be no path toward a series win for the Houston Astros. They were down two games to one and faced the prospect of not getting out of Boston with a pitching staff in shambles and two games at Fenway to go.
All it took was one break, however. A pitch that could have been a game-ending strike three was ruled a ball, and the Astros rallied for seven runs with two outs in the ninth—setting a postseason record for the biggest ninth-inning rally.
The 9-2 win evened the series at two games each and gave Houston back the home-field advantage. Now the Astros can go back to Texas with a huge advantage—a win Wednesday would mean Houston needs just one win in two home games to move on to the World Series.
Boston, meanwhile, used its top starting pitcher in relief on Tuesday—Nathan Eovaldi threw the disputed strike three that wasn’t—and now the Red Sox have bullpen issues of their own.
Return of the Bats
While the Red Sox power show over the previous two games rightfully got most of the attention, Houston’s failure to match Boston at the plate was equally at fault. The Astros scored a run in the first inning on Tuesday, the first run they’d scored when not down at least five runs in 20 innings.
Houston got a solo homer from Alex Bregman in the first and another clutch solo shot from Jose Altuve in the eighth to tie the game. But the ninth inning is when the Astros offense—which has been dominant all season—returned with a vengeance. Houston rallied for seven runs, setting a team record with 36 two-out runs so far this postseason.
Unfortunately for Houston, the offensive show didn’t help solve the bullpen problem. Zack Greinke got the start, as expected, but lasted just 1.1 innings. For the series, Houston starters have combined for 6.2 innings pitched in four games. The bullpen, so far, has been solid, with a 3.49 ERA in 28.1 innings, but arms are getting tired.
Now, game one starter Framber Valdez will try to redeem himself after getting knocked out early to start the series. He lasted just 2.2 innings and gave up six hits, three walks and two earned runs in the opening game.
Cold Spell
The Red Sox have been hitting on a record pace over the last two games, and that hot streak appeared to be ready to continue for another night after Xander Bogaerts hit a two-run homer in the first inning to put Boston on top.
That was all the scoring the Red Sox would get, however, as the team went eight innings without recording another run. Team Grand Slam went 0-for-9 in the game with runners in scoring position and left 11 men on base. Boston doesn’t seem overly concerned that a one-night blip means an end to the hot streak for the Red Sox, however.
"There’s not much to say in that clubhouse," said manager Alex Cora. "We know where we’re at. They have a good team. We were one pitch away from ending that [ninth] inning and it didn’t happen, and then they scored seven. Just like every day, you win, you turn the page. You lose, you turn the page and be ready."
Boston will send Game One starter Chris Sale to the mound for game four. The Red Sox’s former ace, still recovering from arm surgery, lasted just 2.2 innings in game one, giving up five hits, a walk, hit batter and wild pitch.
The Pick
Red Sox manager Alex Cora has never lost back-to-back postseason games as a manager. That streak will get put to the test on Wednesday. Despite all the struggles and pitching woes, Houston accomplished what it needed to in Boston by regaining the home-field advantage. Now the Astros are playing with house money in the final game at Fenway, and a Houston lineup, relaxed for the first time in two games, is a dangerous one, indeed so roll with them for your MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (+110) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
