The Los Angeles Dodgers are too chalky with Max Scherzer to be the right MLB pick for Wednesday’s game versus the Houston Astros.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday 4, August, 2021 – 9:40 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Max Scherzer is a damn fine pitcher. Why isn’t that enough for some people? After Scherzer was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of last week’s trade deadline, we heard plenty of chatter about how Scherzer was a sure-fire Hall of Fame choice. Maybe he’ll get in someday, but the statmeisters at Baseball Reference have the three-time Cy Young winner as a fringe candidate right now.
His most similar comparison through his age 36 season? David Cone, who earned 3.9 percent of BBWAA votes in 2009 and never appeared on the ballot again. So here we are with Scherzer (3.59 FIP) getting ready to make his Dodgers debut this Wednesday against the Houston Astros, who are sending Jake Odorizzi (4.29 FIP) to the mound. If we’re reading the tealeaves correctly here at the home office, this is a golden opportunity to fade L.A. and put the Astros in our MLB picks, while everyone is still drooling over Mad Max. Let’s see if the computers have our back.
Numbers In Action
As usual, supplying the numbers (for free, to you and me) are Nate Silver and the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight, who project Los Angeles to win Wednesday’s matchup 61 percent of the time. Not bad, but BetOnline have opened the Dodgers as –195 home faves on their MLB odds board. If you run 61 percent through the greatest gambling calculator in existence, the BMR Odds Converter, you get a fair moneyline of just –156.
That’s quite a big difference. In fact, it’s big enough that the Astros have ample betting value at the top online sportsbooks as +179 road dogs. Should we be that surprised? Heading into Tuesday’s action, Houston have the best record in the American League at 64-42 (plus-5.70 betting units), and the best run differential at plus-149; that’s the equivalent of a 68-38 Pythagorean record. The Dodgers (64-43, minus-8.06 units) have had plenty of bad luck this year, and their MLB-leading plus-165 run differential suggests they “should” be 71-36, but that’s only three kayfabe games ahead of Houston.
Odo Mojo
Still not convinced? What if we told you that Odorizzi is Scherzer’s closest player comparison at age 25? Okay, he’s 31 now, and his career hasn’t panned out quite as well as Scherzer’s has, but Odorizzi did make the All-Star Game two years ago as a member of the Minnesota Twins. His 2020 campaign was marred by injuries; after a slow start with his new employers, Odorizzi has led Houston to victory in six of his last nine outings – that’s eight starts and a four-inning stint in relief.
Speaking of relief, Odorizzi hasn’t pitched more than six innings in a game this year, and usually five or fewer, while Houston’s bullpen ranks No. 18 overall at FanGraphs with just 1.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). But the Astros completely stole closer Kendall Graveman (2.72 FIP) from the Seattle Mariners ahead of the deadline, and they also added Phil Maton (3.06 FIP) and Yimi Garcia (4.44 FIP) for their playoff push. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
MLB Pick: Astros +179 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
