Four women remain in the field of the tournament here in Monterrey. Defensive tennis has won the day so far this week. The four women remaining are all excellent defenders in their own right. Many of these matches have featured long, multiple-shot rallies. Tactics have been at a premium, and all four women have shown excellent use of different strategies in order to get victories.
Let’s take a look at today’s semifinal matches to find a winning WTA pick.
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano vs. Nuria Parrizas-Diaz
Saturday, March 05, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Estadio GNP Seguros
Betting Preview
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano or Camila Osorio, as she is known, had a slow start against world number 15 Elina Svitolina. Elina Svitolina has done well here in Monterrey and won the championship here in 2020. Svitolina had been playing inspired tennis this week and was the favorite to win the title according to WTA odds. Svitolina rushed to victory in the first set 6-1, and it appeared she was on her way to another routine victory.
Camila Osorio had different plans, however, and she won the next 2 sets 7-5, 7-6. After Osorio got blasted in the first set, the two women held serve for the first 11 games in the second set. With Svitolina serving to force a tiebreak, Osorio was finally able to make her move and snatched the second set with a timely break of serve.
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The third set featured four breaks of serve, all early in the set. After Osorio was broken twice and Svitolina had built a 4-1 lead in the deciding set, many observers, including myself, thought that this match had been decided. But Osorio showed that she has a true fighting spirit and broke back twice to even the set at 4-4. She carried this momentum to force a deciding tiebreaker in the third set where she won (7-5). All in all, it was a victory that reinforced the importance of never giving up, as Osorio prevailed 1-6, 7-5, 7-6.
The 20-year-old Camila Osorio is a former junior world number one trying to make her way on the pro tour. Osorio had four semifinal appearances in 2020 going 2-2. She was able to win the title in her home country at the tournament in Bogota and was the runner-up in Tenerife. Osorio displayed all of the qualities that have led her to be one of the top prospects in the WTA in her win last night.
Nuria Parrizas-Diaz got one of the biggest wins of her career last night. The Spanish Parrizas-Diaz beat fellow countrywoman, Sara Sorribes Tormo, 6-3, 1-6, 6-4. This will be the first semifinal appearance she has made in her WTA career. Parrizas-Diaz has previously made three quarterfinal appearances but has fallen short in all three. This will be a great opportunity for her.
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Parrizas-Diaz has won previous titles at the lower levels. She won 125k titles in Bastad and Columbus. Most recently she won W100 in Landisville. These wins in the smaller tournaments have given her ranking points to move into the top 50. She is a good example of using smaller tournaments to build ranking and experience in order to compete with the top women on tour.
In the match against Tormo, similar styles were on display. Parrizas-Diaz's natural athletic gifts were the difference, however. She appeared faster and stronger than her more accomplished countrywoman. Parrizas-Diaz definitely has the physical tools to be a top player in the WTA, she just needs to refine her skills and tactics.
Osorio and Parrizas-Diaz have met once. They played in Wimbledon qualifying last June. It was both of their first time playing on a grass court and the conditions at Wimbledon are close to the complete opposite of what we have out here today.
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It might give Osorio a slight mental edge, knowing that she has beat her. Yet, for the most part, because of the drastically opposite surface, the result has little to no predictive value.
The Pick
The top-rated sportsbooks slightly favor Osorio, but with both women playing so well it is hard to pick a winner in this one. One thing that has been quite evident is that both women will fight hard to get the victory. That is why I believe the best bet for today is the Over in this match.
This should be a long-drawn-out battle with both women showing this week that they will not give up, even if they are in bleak situations. Today's best pick for WTA Monterrey is the Maria Camila Osorio Serrano/Nuria Parrizas-Diaz Over 21.5 games.
WTA Pick: Osorio Serrano vs. Parrizas-Diaz Over 21.5 Games (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
