The men begin their quarterfinals today in the Masters 1000 event in Miami. The women conclude their quarterfinals today. This tournament is now a showcase of the up-and-coming talent on the ATP Tour. All eight quarterfinalists on the ATP side are 26 years or younger. This gives us a great opportunity to enjoy watching the next generation while making more winning tennis picks.
Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev
Wednesday, March 30, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Stadium Court
After a disappointing performance in Indian Wells, Alexander Zverev has found his form here in Miami. Zverev dropped a set to Borna Coric in his first match before defeating Mackenzie McDonald and Thanasi Kokkinakis, both in straight sets. Zverev enters his quarterfinal match today playing the best tennis we have seen him play in 2022.
Zverev showed an excellent level to the end of 2021, but he has yet to reclaim that form. Zverev hopes that this tournament in Miami will be a launching pad to regain the elite-level play with which he closed last season.
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Casper Ruud has shown excellent form in 2022. He lifted the trophy in the Buenos Aires tournament in February. Ruud has yet to lose a set so far here in Miami. Ruud plays with a heavy topspin that is effective on the slower courts here in Miami. Ruud's ability to generate this topspin was evident in his most recent match against Cameron Norrie which he won 6-3, 6-4.
Betting Breakdown
Casper Ruud consistently used his topspin to keep Norrie pinned behind the baseline, which allowed Ruud to enter an aggressive court position. Ruud will try to do the same today, but it will be much tougher against the groundstrokes of Alexander Zverev.
Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud have played each other twice. Both matches were played in 2021 and Zverev won both encounters. The first match was in Cincinnati, and the second match was in Paris. Cincinnati plays very fast so it's not necessarily predictive for today's event.
The indoor event is slower than most indoor events, but not nearly as slow as the surface in Miami today. Therefore, I would not put too much stock into the results of the head-to-head, because today's conditions are much more advantageous to Ruud than any he has met Zverev in before.
ATP Pick
Casper Ruud has a great chance to get the upset today. The previous results between Zverev and Ruud will give us even greater value. Alexander Zverev has also achieved a higher level of success in his time on tour so far. All this leads to very attractive ATP odds for the underdog here, Casper Ruud.
Ruud will face Zverev in conditions most suited for his game (besides clay) here on the slow surface, where his forehand plays optimally. While Zverev should be the rightful favorite due to his prolonged level of success at this level on the tour, and Casper Ruud is a newcomer to the elite level of the ATP, Casper Ruud has a much better chance of victory than the implied ATP odds suggest.
At a price of +265 at the best online sportsbooks the implied probability of Casper Ruud winning is 27.4%. Ruud has a much better chance than 27.4%. I would put him around 37% for tonight’s match. Our first bet for today's Miami Open is Casper Ruud ML.
ATP Pick: Casper Ruud ML (+265) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Petra Kvitova vs. Iga Swiatek
Wednesday, March 30, 2022 - 07:00 PM EDT at Stadium Court
The world's new number one Iga Swiatek continued her blistering level of play here in Miami. Swiatek has not lost a match since she fell to Jelena Ostapenko on February 16th. After that loss, Swiatek went on to win the tournament in Doha, the tournament in Indian Wells and has yet to drop a set here in Miami. Swiatek is clearly the best player on the WTA tour right now.
Iga Swiatek looked absolutely dominant in her win over world number 17 Cori Gauff. Gauff is an excellent baseline player, who I thought could give Swiatek some problems. That was not the case, as Swiatek was in fine form in the routine 77 minutes 6-3, 6-1 victory.
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Petra Kvitova has not had the best start to the 2022 season. Kvitova is 8-6 after her round of 16 win against Veronika Kudermetova. Kvitova was down a break in each set against Kudermetova but she was able to coax errors out of her young Russian opponent.
Betting Analysis
Kvitova is a power player, so for her to switch to a defensive style against Kudermetova showed the wisdom that the 32-year-old Czech has acquired in her years on the court. Kvitova's ability to use different styles and strategies in order to defeat opponents adds a new wrinkle to her game.
Kvitova has the power to blow most opponents off the court, so adding this layer of a defensive play as a strategic tactic is a needed adjustment as more powerful young players who grew up admiring her style arrive on the WTA tour.
WTA Pick
Petra Kvitova is one of my favorite players to ever pick up a racket, so this is a tough wager for me to make. However, I wasn't that impressed with her win over Veronika Kudermetova, while Swiatek has shown that she is clearly the class of the tour right now.
The slow hard courts are perfect for Swiatek's game. As much as fun as it would be to see Petra make one last run, we have to make the smart wager. Our second bet for today's Miami open is Iga Swiatek's -5 games.
WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek -5 Games (-125) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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