4 men remain in the Masters 1000 Miami Open. We have many newcomers to the top of the ATP, and I couldn’t be more excited about the tournament’s unpredictability. Let’s look at today’s matches to find the winning tennis pick.
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Friday, April 1, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Stadium Court
Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz is a 25-year-old Polish player. Hurkacz is currently 10th in the world and is the reigning champion here at the Miami Open. It is by far the most prestigious of all of Hurkacz's titles; his other three tournament victories have been at the 250 level.
Hubert Hurkacz is an all-court player with a huge serve. Hurkacz can dial up one of the most powerful serves on tour. Hurkacz is not afraid to defend from the baseline so he has an interesting mix of offense and defense. Hurkacz is a balanced player ready to take the next step in his ascension up the ATP ladder.
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Hurkacz has dropped only one set so far on his way to the semifinal today. Hurkacz defeated Arthur Rinderknech in straight sets. Aslan Karatsev pulled Hurkacz to three sets, but Hurkacz won the third set with an early break and then held on for the victory. Hurkacz followed that up with a strong victory over South African Lloyd Harris.
In all these matches Hurkacz was the favorite by ATP odds, but in the quarterfinal, Hurkacz was a sizable underdog. Hubert Hurkacz upset world number one, Daniil Medvedev, with a strong performance yesterday. Hurkacz won 7-6, 6-3. It was the best win of Hurkacz's season thus far.
Hurkacz had five aces and only two double faults. He landed 72% of first serves and won 74% of those landed. Where he really won the match was on the second serve, where he won 61%, while Medvedev won only 49%. If Hurkacz continues to play at this level, he has the potential to be a top-five player.
Hubert Hurkacz has played 19 matches in 2022 and has played 12 tiebreakers. This bodes well if you bet the over in a Hurkacz match. He is now on a 10-match winning streak in Miami, and a 14 match win streak in Florida because he won the title in his last appearance at Delray Beach.
Carlos Alcaraz
Yesterday I wrote that the top talent in the ATP, Carlos Alcaraz, would easily beat Miomir Kecmanovic. Boy was I wrong about that one. However, I did not downgrade Alcaraz for his performance at all. Alcaraz played great, and Miomir Kecmanovic played one of the best matches of his life.
It was one of the most entertaining matches I've seen this season and the level of play rivaled that of the Alcaraz vs. Nadal semifinal in Indian Wells. Alcaraz had an inspiring performance in which she showed off a myriad of talents. Alcaraz used sublime point construction to prove his superiority from the baseline when it mattered most.
With the win yesterday, Carlos Alcaraz became the youngest player ever to make semifinal appearances in the Sunshine Double in the same season. Five teenagers have accomplished this before, and all five eventually became world number one. Alcaraz can make it up to number 11 if he wins the title here in Miami.
A win here would also lift him to number 3 in the standings for the year-end finals tournament, the Race to Turin. Carlos Alcaraz is already defeating the world's best. Even though he is only 18 years old, Alcaraz has a 9-7 record against players in the top 20.
The Pick
At -227, I think the ATP odds for Carlos Alcaraz to win the match are too high, although I do favor him to win. Hubert Hurkacz’s penchant for tiebreakers also makes me hesitant to lay the -3 games. Therefore I think the over 23 is the best bet. There is some worry with Alcaraz coming off such a grueling match against Miomir Kecmanovic yesterday, but Alcaraz is only 18 years old.
His body will recover and be able to put forth the type of performance we've come to expect from the fiery Spanish player. Although Hurkacz plays very aggressively on service games, when he does switch into defensive mode, which he is prone to do especially on return games, I believe the Alcaraz will be able to hit through Hurkacz’s defenses.
Alcaraz has the tactical ability to move his opponent around the court to create winners and coax unforced errors. Service holds should be at a premium in this match. I like Carlos Alcaraz to win but the best value on the board is Over 23. Our best bet for today's Miami Open is the Hubert Hurkacz/Carlos Alcaraz Over 23 games. Make sure to place your bets at one of BMR's top-rated sportsbooks.
Tennis Pick: Hubert Hurkacz/Carlos Alcaraz Over 23 games (-111) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
