The top tennis players in the world are in the round of 16 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. The Road to Roland Garros is almost complete, but the players are intent on grabbing as many ranking points in Italy before they head to Paris.
Let’s take a look at today’s matches to find more winning tennis picks.
Coco Gauff vs. Maria Sakkari
Thursday, May 12, 2022 – 10:20 AM EDT at Grand Stand Arena
Coco Gauff Analysis
Coco Gauff has yet to drop a set in her two matches here in Rome. Her victories moved her to 4-2 on the year on the clay.
In Madrid, she was also able to rack up two victories before losing to Simona Halep. Here in Rome, she has beaten Angie Kerber and Madison Brengle in a routine fashion.
Gauff will face a tough test today against the world number 4 Maria Sakkari. In the year, Coco Gauff is 14-10 with a hold percentage of 67.8% and a break percentage of 35.7%.
Maria Sakkari Analysis
Maria Sakkari has been in a bit of a slump since making the final in Indian Wells. Sakkari fell in the first round of Miami, then the first round in Stuttgart, and was only able to win one match in Madrid before being eliminated.
Sakkari won her first match here in Rome, and it was her best performance we have seen since Indian Wells. She defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova in a convincing fashion. It was a sign that the Greek player is rounding into form, gaining momentum before next week's Grand Slam event.
In the year, Maria Sakkari is 18-9 with a hold percentage of 75.1% and a break percentage of 35.5%.
How to Bet Gauff vs. Sakkari?
Coco Gauff and Maria Sakkari play with similar tactics, although their styles do have some differences.
Both players are exceptionally quick from the baseline and prefer the defensive counter-punching style. However, Sakkari has a much more polished forehand and is more consistent with her groundstrokes.
Both players have excellent backhands. Gauff has a much more natural serve and her serve has been the area of biggest improvement for her over the last year. Sakkari has also worked hard to improve her serve, and that is what has propelled her into the top 10.
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Sakkari doesn't have the natural ability to be a top server. Still, she has refined her technique and has very little variation in her motion now, allowing her to be consistent and effective on her serve.
I like Maria Sakkari to get the win here today. Sakkari and Coco Gauff have played each other four times, with Sakkari coming out on top in all affairs. It is the weakness in Gauff's forehand side that Sakkari is able to exploit.
Sakkari has a very strong backhand, so she is rather immune to Gauff's ability to control points off her backhand wing. When Sakkari can redirect everything to the cross-court forehand side of the court, her advantage is clear. I expect her to use that advantage again today.
Following the WTA odds, our first bet for today's Italian Open is Maria Sakkari -1.5 games.
WTA Pick: Maria Sakkari -1.5 Games (+141) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 05:00 AM EDT at Grand Stand Arena
Aryna Sabalenka Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka is the world's number 8 player. Sabalenka has struggled as of late, losing in the first round in Madrid to Amanda Anisimova. The loss was a blow to Sabalenka's ranking, as she was the defending champion of Madrid.
Now she makes an attempt to grab some of those ranking points back by having a successful tournament here in Rome. Sabalenka opened this tournament in dominating fashion with a 6-2, 6-0 win over Shuai Zhang.
Jessica Pegula Analysis
Jessica Pegula added to her ranking points in Madrid by making the final, where she fell to Ons Jabeur in a three-set battle.
She is definitely feeling the wear and tear of the extended tennis she has played. She had a heavily taped thigh in her opening-round victory over Liudmila Samsonova.
Pegula was granted a form of respite yesterday when Anhelina Kalinina withdrew from their match. It did give Pegula some rest going in today's showdown, but will it be enough?
How to Bet Sabalenka vs. Pegula?
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula have met each other three times with Sabalenka winning two of the three matches. Sabalenka has won both of their meetings on clay, first in 2020 at Roland Garros and then in 2021 in Madrid.
Sabalenka was particularly dominant against Pegula in these wins. Pegula will have to play her very best to match the power of Sabalenka.
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Being the defender is not a position that Pegula is comfortable with. Pegula's power style usually makes her the harder hitter on the court. That will not be the case today against the Belarusian who can hit some of the hardest groundstrokes in the world.
I like Aryna Sabalenka to continue her clay dominance against Jessica Pegula today. Sabalenka's game matches up really well, and the slow clay will minimize her lateral quickness deficiency.
Pegula is not 100% physically going into this match either. She could use the extended rest going into the French Open next week, so a loss here is not as bad as it would seem.
Following the best sportsbooks, our second bet for today's Italian Open is Aryna Sabalenka -2 games.
WTA Pick: Aryna Sabalenka -2 Games (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
