We have had a wild start to the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. We’ve seen so many blown leads, huge comebacks, and dominating performances. It’s been a roller coaster trying to take in all the great tennis action that we have seen.
Today the men’s second-round concludes and the women’s third round begins. We will start to have a better idea of these players’ form with multiple matches on the surface here at Indian Wells. It’s been a great tournament so far, so let’s check the ATP odds board and get you some more winning tennis picks.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Frances Tiafoe
Sunday, March 13, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Stadium 3
Brandon Nakashima
Brandon Nakashima opened his tournament here at Indian Wells with a 6-2, 7-6 victory over Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino is a spirited fighter on the court, so any win over him is considered a good victory.
However, Nakashima's style matched up really well with the flat-hitting Mannarino, who couldn't generate the pace necessary to trouble his opponent on the slower courts of Indian Wells. Nakashima's ability to hit with topspin helped him create court position and was crucial in the victory.
Nakashima served well in his win over Adrian Mannarino. Nakashima landed 62% and won 84% (32-38) of his first-serve points. Nakashima only won 39% (9-23) of his 2nd serve points, so you can see how important landing the first serve is to Nakashima's success. Nakashima will need to land his serve if he is going to have success against his opponent today, Frances Tiafoe.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Brandon Nakashima is 20 years old and ranked number 80 in the world. Nakashima played one year of college tennis at the University of Virginia but chose to forgo his eligibility to turn pro after 1 year at school.
Nakashima made the 2nd round here at Indian Wells last year, his best performance at a Masters level event. Nakashima has made 2 finals in his career but has yet to win an ATP Tour level event. Nakashima made the finals at the Los Cabos Open and the Atlanta Open, both in July 2021.
Nakashima has won 3 Challenger-level events, all on hard courts. Like most Americans, the hardcourt is his best surface. Nakashima was born and raised in San Diego and has already won close to 1 million dollars of prize money in his short career.
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe has not played since the Australian Open. This is in stark contrast to Nakashima who has played six matches since the Australian Open. Here we have the classic "Rest vs. Rust" conundrum, and as usual, there is not a standard way to approach this situation. It is situational and does involve some degree of guesswork.
Tiafoe is an athletically gifted and talented player, currently ranked 30 in the world. I'm not sure how bad Tiafoe's health was to cause him to make the decision to take time off, but with so many young players overworking themselves during the season.
Maybe Tiafoe's cautious approach will serve him well. Tiafoe has only played 4 matches in 2022 and is 1-3 on the year. Tiafoe is 0-2 against fellow Americans.
Tiafoe has beaten Brandon Nakashima twice in his career. The first was a three-set battle featuring 2 tie breaks in Acapulco last March. In 2020, Tiafoe also won a three-set match against Nakashima at the Dallas Challenger event. Nakashima will definitely represent a tough task for Tiafoe, who has been off the court for over a month.
This is an interesting situation with Tiafoe having time off. We don't know how his form is, or if he is in proper physical condition. Yet, for those reasons, we are getting a value that would not be present in this matchup where the playing styles and talent levels definitely favor Tiafoe.
The Prediction
If Tiafoe had been playing the recent tournaments, he would probably be a stark favorite of somewhere between -130 to -150 range. So of course, as with every wager, there is an inherent risk, but there is also the opportunity to get Tiafoe at a much lower price than he should be due to the uncertainty.
Regardless of the rest, I expect Tiafoe to get the win once again over his fellow American. Although Tiafoe has had a slow start to the year, he is a streaky player who can catch fire quickly, and when he is playing well, he is excellent.
The surface at Indian Wells suits Tiafoe well. He plays with more topspin than Nakashima. Tiafoe uses an extreme Western grip that creates maximum topspin. Tiafoe’s topspin will allow him to get a strong court position, and he is a great athlete that will keep rallies alive when he is on defense.
Tiafoe's effective use of topspin will be a stark contrast to Nakashima's first-round opponent, the flat-hitting Adrian Mannarino. Our best bet for today in Indian Wells is Frances Tiafoe ML.
Tennis Pick: Frances Tiafoe ML (+121) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
