With the NBA on its All-Star break, let’s take a look at the MVP race and whether anyone can catch Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, who is the betting favorite at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
NBA MVP Award Odds: Joel Embiid -150
The Philadelphia 76ers have had six NBA MVPs: Wilt Chamberlain three times, Julius Erving, Moses Malone and Allen Iverson, Hall of Famers all. Iverson in the 2000-01 season was the most recent.
When the second half of the NBA season opens Thursday, Sixers center Joel Embiid is the one to beat to win
Jokic is of course the reigning NBA MVP, while Giannis and Stephen Curry have won it twice. Curry was the favorite for a decent chunk of the first half of the season but his shooting has been off for several weeks.
Can Embiid Stay Healthy?
Let’s make one thing clear: It’s not accurate to say the NBA is entering its second half because most teams have around 24 of their 82 regular-season games remaining. In a way, that benefits Embiid because the only realistic chance I believe he has of not winning the MVP is getting injured, and Embiid has been plenty injured in his career but pretty healthy this season.
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As I write this, Embiid has played in 46 of the team’s 58 games – he does get the occasional part of a back-to-back off even if healthy – and leads the NBA in scoring at 29.6 ppg while ranking eighth in rebounding at 11.2
How Valuable is Embiid?
The Sixers are 4-8 without him this season and 31-15 with. MVP voters are going to want to reward Embiid for carrying a Sixers team that has not had Ben Simmons all season – James Harden should debut this weekend and help take a bit of the load off Embiid and potentially help Philly finish first in the East.
If Embiid wins the scoring title, he’s winning MVP. No center has led the league in scoring since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000, the year the Hall of Famer won his only MVP award.
Sometimes voters get MVP fatigue or Michael Jordan would have won it about 10 straight years. Denver’s Jokic is having arguably a better season than he did in his 2020-21 MVP campaign in averaging 26.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists. His player efficiency rating of 32.66 is not just first in the NBA but would be the best EVER.
Jokic might need a handful of triple-doubles to catch Embiid. Denver is projected to have the league’s easiest schedule in March, so that could help Jokic rack up big numbers and his team wins. Since 1985, only two MVPs have come from a team that finished worse than second in its conference during the regular season.
Giannis is right behind Jokic in PER at 32.36 and second in scoring at 29.4 points per game to go along with 11.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists. He’s the best all-around player in the NBA, and that’s not an argument. Perhaps the only way he catches Embiid is if the Bucks finish with the best record in the East and Giannis wins the scoring title.
Do I Think Curry or Morant Has a Real Shot?
Probably not, although Morant likely has an MVP in his future and the New Orleans Pelicans clearly blew it by taking injury-prone Zion Williamson (not likely to play this season) over Morant atop the 2019 draft.
DeRozan, though, is coming on strong. He was +5000 on the NBA futures odds to win MVP two weeks ago but those odds have dropped to +1200 at Bovada with DeRozan entering the break with seven straight games of at least 35 points and 50 percent shooting from the field. No player — not Wilt Chamberlain, not Michael Jordan – has ever had such a streak that long. If DeRozan gets to double digits, steals the scoring title and the Bulls finish with the East’s best record, stealing the MVP is possible.
For what it’s worth, right before the All-Star break, ESPN asked 100 media members to participate in an informal poll that mimics the postseason awards voting. Embiid finished barely ahead of Jokic and Giannis. DeRozan was seventh, which is absurd.
NBA Pick: Embiid to Win MVP (-150) at Bovada – his odds likely only will shorten
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
