The UFC returns to the Apex Center in Vegas for another stacked UFC Fight Night event. Two of the UFC’s promising middleweight contenders will square off in the main event. Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC betting picks.
Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
UFC Middleweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, October 23, 2021 – 3:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex Center
Paulo Costa (13-1-0)
One of the most exciting prospects out of the UFC’s 185lb middleweight division makes his highly anticipated return to the octagon next weekend, none other than Paulo Costa.
The Brazilian-born knockout artist hasn’t made an appearance since his losing championship opportunity versus Israel Adesanya; scheduled bouts with Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier were consequently canceled, which has kept “Borrachinha” side-lined.
Costa’s striking ability stems way back from his interest in Muay Thai kickboxing, aged 9-years-old. And despite owning a decorated background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, we rarely witness the former three-time BJJ champion utilize his black belt.
A varied set of offensive striking attacks has provided his professional career with 11 highlight-reel-worthy knockouts, the main factor behind his lack of submission attempts.
Paulo Costa MMA Accomplishments
⦁ Minas Gerais State Jiu-Jitsu Champion (x4)
⦁ Brazil Jiu-Jitsu Champion (x3)
⦁ Jungle Fight Middleweight Champion (One time)
⦁ UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
⦁ UFC Fight of the Night (One time)
Paulo Costa Best Available Odds: +127 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Marvin Vettori (17-4-1)
Interestingly, Marvin Vettori will also be returning to the octagon following a defeat to the current UFC middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya.
The key difference, Vettori hasn’t suffered from a stint of inactivity. In fact, since Costa’s last appearance, Vettori has fought on three occasions, and we should expect him to be at peak fitness.
The Italian-born former UFC title contender had no answers for Israel Adesanya, but he does have answers for anybody attempting to knockout or submit him. Throughout 22 professional contests dating back to his pro debut in 2013, nobody has found success in finishing Vettori inside the distance.
Vettori is well known for his dedication to training, beginning with a kickboxing trial aged 13. As Vettori grew a closer interest in mixed martial arts, he branched out into several different gyms just to acquire the skills necessary.
Now training with Kings MMA in California, he didn’t worry about the lengthy journeys, but that same dedication goes to work six days out of seven with morning and afternoon sessions.
Marvin Vettori MMA Accomplishments
⦁ UFC Performance of the Night (One time) vs. Karl Roberson
⦁ UFC Fight of the Night (One time) vs. Jack Hermansson
Marvin Vettori Best Available Odds: -147 at BetOnline
How Can Vettori Win?
Most analysts believe that a grappling game plan for Vettori will and should be his taken approach for this contest. While this may be true, it neglects how well-rounded Paulo Costa’s defensive attributes have been.
Vettori is the more technical striker of the two, but in this position, I struggle to see him overwhelming the Brazilian in this position.
So, this puts my preferred method of victory for Vettori in turmoil; I believe this fighting style is a bad matchup for “The Italian Dream”. I guess out-pointing Costa will most likely be the plan, should the wrestling chops of Vettori failed to succeed.
How Can Costa Win?
Paulo Costa’s striking output and precision are far superior to that of Marvin Vettori. Watching him defend takedowns from the former Olympic wrestler in Yoel Romero raises my confidence that Costa can fend off this tactic should Vettori stick to what he does best.
Costa’s aggressive style did cost him against Adesanya, but Vettori doesn’t possess the speed nor counter striking ability that’s going to stop Costa in his tracks.
And will Vettori be as confident taking down Costa, who owns a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt that’s often neglected? The fact is, Costa hasn’t had to utilize this part of his arsenal, and there’s a likelihood he could present a danger to Vettori if the fight is grounded.
Betting Picks
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review opened with Paulo Costa as the -160 favorite. Public bettors have quickly flipped the betting line around as we now see Vettori taking the higher probability of success.
The main factor preventing me from going all-in on Paulo Costa is both fighter’s cardio across five rounds; I’m struggling to anticipate who owns the more excellent gas tank as I believe it could be a massive factor in whoever walks out victorious.
Gut instinct, I believe Costa presents more dangerous weapons than Vettori, and I do think he can succeed. On the flip side, I can envision Vettori tiring Costa with his grappling output during the later rounds and going on to steal a decision victory.
For these reasons, I’m going to put faith in Marvin Vettori’s solid durability holding out for at least two and a half rounds. The odds aren’t available yet, but Paulo Costa’s layoff, questionable cardio, and non-existent five-round contests prevent me from siding with the Brazilian.
UFC Pick: Over 4 ½ Rounds (+105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
