Who Will Trump Fire Next? Odds Favor Kash Patel, Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard
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Bookmakers Review
- April 21, 2026
Washington smells like smoke. The kind that rolls in before the fire shows itself. Someone in that cabinet is already dead and walking. They just haven’t gotten the memo.
The Trump White House has turned into a reality show with nuclear codes. Every week, another loyalist watches the boss sour on them over cable news. Every week, the sportsbooks sharpen their pencils and post fresh political odds on the next head to roll. This is where we are now. Betting on the misery of political appointees. Treating Senate-confirmed officials like horses in the fifth at Pimlico.
The current board is a buffet of paranoia. Kash Patel sits at a brutal -900. Pete Hegseth hovers at a coin-flip -130. Howard Lutnick bleeds out at -200. Even Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. have been dragged onto the ticker. The market is telling you a story, and the story is that the knives are out, the president is bored, and somebody’s chair is getting pulled before the leaves turn.
Before we jump into who Trump will fire next, check out the odds for the 2028 Presidential election. Here’s the straight read on where the value sits, where the suckers are losing their dough, and who’s next in the wood chipper.
The Heavy Favorite: Kash Patel at -900
Kash Patel’s name sits at -900. That’s a 90% implied probability he gets fired next. The market has made up its mind.
The case writes itself. Patel was the pit bull. He promised the MAGA base a reckoning. Deep state files. Epstein lists. Heads on pikes. What they got was a man who looks tired on camera and keeps losing internal fights. The president watches. The president notices.
Anonymous White House aides have been briefing reporters for weeks. The word is “frustrated.” The word is “disappointed.” Those words are a death warrant in this town.
So Patel gets fired. Easy, right? Here’s the catch.
Laying -900 means risking $900 to win $100. Think about that math. One slip, one reprieve, one Truth Social post of support, and your stack is vapor. This White House reverses field faster than a running back on ice. Trump has resurrected dead careers at breakfast and killed live ones by lunch.
A 90% implied probability sounds airtight. It is not. Not here. Not in a building where the chief of staff finds out about firings from CNN. The juice is wrong. The risk-reward is broken. You need Patel to go down roughly nine out of ten times to break even, and that’s before the book’s vig eats you alive.
Suckers lay -900. Sharps wait for the book to miscalibrate on somebody more vulnerable. Patel is a lock. He is also a terrible bet. You never want to risk too much of your bankroll on a volatile market like this, so laying chalk is a bad move.
The Middle Tier: Where the Smart Money Hides
This is the meat. Three names. Three different ways to die in this administration. Three legitimate prices.
Howard Lutnick — Yes -200 / No +150 (66.7% implied)
Howard Lutnick at -200 is where the board starts getting interesting. Two-thirds of the market says the Commerce Secretary is cooked.
Lutnick’s problem is tariffs. He’s been the public face of policies that get reversed every six hours. Markets gag on the whiplash. CEOs whisper to Politico. The president hates looking stupid on business TV, and Lutnick keeps putting him there.
.@ben_mckenzie on how crypto helps criminals and hostile states evade sanctions — and how Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick profits from it. #theweeklyshow #jonstewart #politics pic.twitter.com/cVzlhiq5ST
— The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart (@weeklyshowpod) April 15, 2026
There’s also the Cantor Fitzgerald hangover. His old firm’s fingerprints keep showing up in awkward places. Ethics vultures are circling. His Wall Street friends stopped returning calls last month.
At -200, you’re laying two-to-one on a guy whose resume smells like smoke. The No at +150 pays if he survives a rough summer. That’s a legitimate price on a live question. The value is playable in either direction, depending on your read.
Pete Hegseth — Yes -130 / No -110 (56.5% implied)
Pete Hegseth at -130 is the true degenerate play. The Secretary of War sits on a coin flip — 56.5% implied. The book is saying: we have no idea.
And they shouldn’t. Hegseth walked into the Pentagon with a target painted on his back. The Signal chat leak. The second Signal chat leak. The wife reading classified material over Sunday coffee. The paraphrasing of a prayer from the Quentin Tarantino movie “Pulp Fiction.” He’s been hanging on by his fingernails since January.
What saves him is loyalty. The president likes the cable news cadence. The television voice. The way Hegseth defends him on morning shows without flinching. That’s hard currency in this administration.
At -130, you get paid like it’s a jump ball. The reality is that one more leak, one more general quitting on principle, and Hegseth is out by Friday. That is the sweetest price on this entire board.
Tulsi Gabbard — Yes -165 / No +125 (62.3% implied)
Tulsi Gabbard at -165 is the quiet knife fight. 62.3% implied. The National Intelligence Director has been bleeding for months in places nobody covers.
Her sin? She keeps briefing the president things he doesn’t want to hear. Iran assessments. Russia assessments. The kind of inconvenient truth that gets the briefer disinvited from the Oval. Tulsi has been sidelined, embarrassed, and contradicted in public by her own boss.
The intelligence community hates her. The MAGA base is cooling. The president stopped name-checking her at rallies three weeks ago. That silence is louder than any headline.
At -165, the price reflects a slow leak rather than an explosion. If you buy the theory that the stealth cut is how Trump actually operates these days, Gabbard is the cleanest bet on the board. The public drama around Hegseth is noise. The Gabbard freeze is the real signal.
The Long Shots: Rubio and RFK Jr.
Marco Rubio at +500 is a dead bet. The Secretary of State has somehow turned into the last adult in the room. His No sits at -900 — a 90% implied lock that he survives. Trump likes him. The Senate likes him. He shows up, stays on message, and doesn’t leak. That is a rare trifecta. Throwing money at Rubio Yes is setting cash on fire for warmth.
RFK Jr. at +200 has more juice. 33.3% implied. The HHS Secretary has serious enemies — Big Pharma, the White House doctors, half of his own agency. But Trump promised him the job personally. Firing a Kennedy before the midterms would be a political migraine the president does not need. The No at -300 is the safer play. RFK probably limps through, wounded and weird.
The Verdict & Where to Lock It In
The BookmakersReview pick is Pete Hegseth Yes at -130. The price is fair. The risk is readable. The alternative — laying -900 on Patel or Rubio No — is how you go broke pretending you’re being disciplined.
If you want the stealth play, take Tulsi Gabbard Yes at -165. Same idea, less public theater, higher silent probability.
Whatever you pick, lock it in fast. These lines move on a single Truth Social post. A 3 a.m. meltdown can flip -130 into +150 before your coffee cools. The books that carry these political props are a shortlist, and not every offshore operator will touch them. Check the BookmakersReview sportsbook ratings for the houses still posting cabinet action, compare the numbers, and get down before the next firing makes you read this article twice.
FAQs
What does -900 mean in betting terms?
Laying -900 means you risk $900 to profit $100. That price carries an implied probability of 90%. Favorites priced this heavily rarely return value, since one upset wipes nine winners off your ledger.
Where can I bet on who Trump fires next?
Political prop markets live mostly at offshore sportsbooks. A handful of regulated U.S. books dabble in election-year novelty lines, but cabinet firing odds tend to live on offshore boards. Compare options through the BookmakersReview sportsbook rankings before you wire a dime.
Why is Kash Patel the heavy favorite?
Reporting has painted Patel as a frustrated FBI director who hasn’t delivered the scalps the MAGA base expected. Internal sources keep telling reporters that the president has cooled on him. The market priced those leaks into a near-lock.
Is Marco Rubio safe from being fired?
The Rubio No sits at -900, a 90% implied probability he survives. He maintains a clean public profile, stays on message, and avoids leaking. Of the six names on the board, his seat looks the most secured.
What’s the best value bet on the cabinet firing board?
Pete Hegseth Yes at -130 offers the best risk-reward ratio. The coin-flip price reflects genuine uncertainty at the Pentagon, and a single fresh scandal flips the line hard. Gabbard Yes at -165 is the second-sharpest angle for experienced bettors.
