The New Orleans Saints will look to bounce back in Week 11 when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles, but the markets have taken a distinct turn against Sean Payton’s side as they travel to the City of Brotherly Love as the slight underdogs.
Books opened with the Saints at the 1-point disadvantage, but that line has already swelled to 1.5 with some top-rated sportsbooks. The public appears to have bet the NFL lineup at early doors – likely the result of a knee-jerk reaction to the contrasting fortunes of both teams in Week 10. The Saints are coming off a narrow loss to the Tennessee Titans while the Eagles’ defeated the Denver Broncos.
Does the market have it right? Are the Eagles the correct favorites here? Or are the Eagles being overrated on the NFL odds board? Find out as we delve into this matchup and serve up choice NFL picks.
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 21, 2021, 1:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Saints Lose to Titans
The Saints’ loss to the Titans wasn’t surprising at all. They were on the road, facing the hottest team in the AFC and they’d closed as the 3-point underdogs across multiple sports betting outlets. All in all, the outcome fell in line with market expectations – save for the fact that the Saints were more competitive than they were given credit for and they covered the point spread in the 23-21 loss.
Injuries have set back the Saints considerably in recent weeks. Losing quarterback Jameis Winston for the season was the biggest blow, but Alvin Kamara’s injury woes represent another potential blow for Sean Payton’s side to contend with now.
Since beating the Buccaneers in Week 8, the Saints have lost two in a row. They lost to the Atlanta Falcons 27-25 and the Titans 23-21. Slow starts in both games proved to be their undoing, and while they picked up the pace in the second half, they were unable to overcome their opponents in the end.
Eagles’ Big Win Not So Big of a Deal
Sure, the Denver Broncos delivered a stunning upset in Week 9, catching the Dallas Cowboys sleepwalking out of their bye and dealing them with a humiliating 31-16 loss. But let’s not be under any illusions because one win doesn’t make a team great, no matter how big the scalp is. The Broncos are average at best. A team that is currently outside of the playoff frame and is a long-shot bet to make the cut.
Philadelphia’s win wasn’t a big win in any way, shape, or form. It wasn’t even an upset in terms of NFL betting markets because the game closed as a pick’em. In the end, the Eagles managed to deliver a more comprehensive victory than was expected, and that’s all the 30-13 win was.
This isn’t to rain down on Philadelphia’s parade. There is nothing more satisfying than winning. That’s the name of the game, and the Eagles are fighting to get something out of their 2021 campaign. Second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts especially has to be commended for his incredible poise, perseverance, and determination in the tough situation he finds himself in with a rebuilding organization that may (or may not) choose to continue its journey with him beyond 2021.
NFL Picks and Predictions
The Saints lost to the Titans, but they lost to the current AFC leaders. In that context, the loss is easily understandable. By contrast, there’s not much one can hang their hat on in Philadelphia’s win. The Broncos are a tough team to get a handle on this season, and their loss to the Eagles says more about how inconsistent the Broncos are rather than how dependable or great the Eagles are.
If there’s one thing that takes the shine off of Philadelphia’s NFL odds, it’s the fact that they’re 0-4 SU and 1-3-0 ATS at home this season. Of course, this trend could change against a Saints team that has just coughed up two winnable games.
But if Payton’s frustration after the last two losses is any indication, the Saints could be on the verge of a bounce-back performance. This is another winnable game for New Orleans. To lose it would be tantamount to disaster, and it might give Payton apoplectic fits.
Taking all this into consideration and more, it’s somewhat surprising that the Eagles are favored over the Saints. Nonetheless, with the market as it is, the value is with the Saints to win and cover.
NFL Pick: Saints +1.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
