NFL oddsmakers don’t seem to trust the unbeaten Denver Broncos all that much as they could close as home underdogs Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 3, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at Empower Field at Mile High
It’s obviously very early, but Ravens-Broncos could have some important playoff tiebreaker ramifications come January. CBS has the national telecast, but this game likely will be drowned out in the 4 p.m. ET window by Steelers-Packers.
One storyline here: Matchup of former University of Louisville quarterbacks in Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who won a Heisman there, and Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater. What else do they have in common? Both were the 32nd and final pick in the first round of their drafts: Bridgewater by Minnesota in 2014 and Jackson by Baltimore in 2018. Finally, both are from the Miami area.
This is the 15th all-time meeting between the franchises including playoffs and Baltimore leads 8-6. The last meeting was in 2018 in Charm City and the Ravens won 27-14. Joe Flacco was still the Ravens’ starting QB then (that seems funny now) and threw for 277 yards and a TD. Case Keenum was the Denver QB that day.
The home team is 6-2 against the spread on NFL picks in the past eight.
Justin Tucker Is Ridiculous!
Maybe the biggest story from Week 3 around the NFL was Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker’s absolutely stunning NFL-record 66-yard field goal as time expired as the Ravens won in Detroit 19-17 – a game that Baltimore frankly had no right winning.
Tucker, who also converted a 50-yard field goal in the third quarter, has seven career games with multiple 50-yard field goals, tied with Brandon McManus (seven games) and Matt Prater (seven) for the most such games in NFL history. Tucker is now 20-for-20 on career field goals attempted either in overtime or the final minute of the fourth quarter. That’s just freaking stupid. He’s so good that the Ravens have a massive advantage.
Lamar Jackson was 16-for-31 for 287 yards with a TD and a pick vs. the Lions – he hit Sammy Watkins on a 36-yard pass with the Ravens facing a 4th-and-19 on their own 16 with 26 seconds remaining. Jackson could have had a few more TD passes, but Marquise Brown dropped at least two of them. Jackson became the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 90 combined passing and rushing touchdowns in his first 40 career start.
Jackson could get some receiving help for this game in rookie first-round pick Rashod Bateman and fellow wideout Miles Boykin. Both were activated off injured reserve. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will be activated for this game as they might need some time to get in shape. The Ravens’ wide receivers rank 17th in the NFL with 500 yards receiving this season.
Defensively, linebacker Justin Houston, nose tackle Brandon Williams, and defensive tackle Justin Madubuike all came off the COVID list this week after missing the Lions game. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS on the NFL picks in its past nine as a road underdog.
Are Broncos Paper Tigers?
Denver’s Vic Fangio opened the season as the betting favorite on the BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) NFL futures odds to be the first coach fired, but he’s definitely off the hot seat with the Broncos at 3-0. I’d hold off on those Super Bowl plans, however, as the Broncos have beaten the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets – a combined 0-9 and quite possibly the three worst teams in the NFL. The schedule gets much tougher starting Sunday. The Broncos haven’t started 4-0 since 2016.
Fangio’s specialty is defense, and the Broncos lead the league in points allowed (8.7 per game) and rushing (59.3 yards per game). The Denver defense has not been in its own red zone in the past two games.
QB Teddy Bridgewater beat out Drew Lock for the starting job in camp and has been marvelous, completing 76.8 percent of his passes for 827 yards, four TDs, and no picks. He has joined Tom Brady from the 2007 Patriots as the only QBs in NFL history to win his first three games of a season, complete at least 75 percent, top 200 yards in each, and not have a pick.
Bridgewater is a bit thin at receiver right now. Jerry Jeudy was hurt in Week 1 and will miss at least a few more games with a high-ankle sprain. KJ Hamler suffered a season-ending knee injury in last week’s win over the Jets. Guards Graham Glasgow (knee) and Dalton Risner (foot) left Week 3 injured and are iffy for Sunday.
What’s interesting is that the Broncos were the only team in the NFL not favored once last season but could be for a fourth straight game to open 2021. No doubt the Broncos are much improved, but I’m not buying them yet with that schedule. They are also just 3-8-1 ATS at BMR’s top-rated books in their past 12 as home favorites.
NFL Pick: Ravens +1 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
