Top NBA Playoffs Parlay Picks for May 25

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Sportsbooks have released their odds for tonight’s NBA playoff action. One game will be played tonight, Boston vs. Miami, and I find it worth investing heavily in. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for this game.

Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated sportsbook and sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Wednesday, May 25, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at FTX Arena

What Does The Injury Report Look Like?

We cannot bet on a game in which we don't account for the possibility of certain key players playing or not playing. Furthermore, we need to understand that playing is not the same as playing healthy.

In order to assess a given player's physical potential to play well, we have to look at the type of injury he is dealing with and we must consider whether that injury afflicted him recently.

Will Tyler Herro Play?

Tyler Herro is officially listed as 'questionable' with a groin injury, so it is unsure.

He suffered this injury in Game 3 of the series. This injury deterred him from participating at all in Game 4. Herro's offensive ability is critical to his team's overall ability to score. In a normal situation, Herro's offense may not be so critical.But consider these things, which I will discuss in more detail:

  • Kyle Lowry is banged up.
  • Bam Adebayo is outmatched.
  • Jimmy Butler may still be banged up.
  • Gabe Vincent may still be out.
  • Sharpshooter Duncan Robinson's defense makes him too much of a liability to contribute many playoff minutes.

The particularly tough thing about Herro's injury is that, reportedly, it would have kept him out for 2-4 weeks during the regular season. If Herro plays, he therefore won't approach his top form. This injury-induced constraint is significant because he has proven his ability in this series to punish single-handedly his opponent's scheme.

In Game 1, for example, Herro inflicted significant damage on Boston's deep drop coverage. In addition to being a strong shooter, Herro is a strong play creator in Miami's ball-screen game. Not having Herro spright limits Miami's exploitative potential on offense.

Will Marcus Smart Play?

Point guard Marcus Smart is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with a right ankle sprain.

On offense, Boston can more than live without Smart's presence. Turnovers are a major reason why Boston has only won two games in this series. The Celtics don't need Smart on the floor to avoid turnovers. Whereas Smart committed four turnovers in Boston's Game 3 debacle, Pritchard committed zero.

When the Celtics won Game 4 without Smart, Pritchard committed one turnover in a 14-point showing. While reigning Defensive Player of the Year Smart's defense is certainly stronger than Pritchard's, the Celtics are 11.4 points per 100 possessions better with Pritchard in the game whereas they are in the negative with Smart on the floor.

Will Robert Williams III Play?

Robert Williams III is listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with left knee soreness.

He played only 19 minutes his Game 4 as his manifestly bothersome knee injury plus Boston's dominance made sitting him the most reasonable option. His defense is tremendously significant to the Celtic interior.

  • When Williams III did not play in Game 3, Adebayo scored 31 points.
  • Adebayo is averaging just over eight points in all other games.
  • Opponents regularly struggle to be efficient when guarded by Williams III.

Despite the palpable significance of Williams III, the Celtics are not better points-wise per 100 possessions with anyone else than fellow center Al Horford. Horford, above all, stretches the floor with his efficient three-point shooting, which he displayed in a three-for-five three-point shooting output in Game 3.

Side Thoughts 

The Celtics did not lose Game 3, because Horford had to play a bigger role. They lost because of turnovers, which are preventable if Boston simply plays focused. The Celtics have the second-best defensive rating in these playoffs and they get to face an injury-ridden offensive attack.

  • Lowry is repeatedly unproductive due to his hamstring injury, which, as James Harden can confirm after last year's playoffs, is notoriously pesky.
  • Vincent has provided a significant boost to his team as evident in the extent to which Miami is measurably better with him on the court versus him off the court, but Vincent is also dealing with hamstring issues.
  • Herro might not even play.

If Williams III plays, Adebayo is done for while the absence of Williams III would be outweighed by Horford's floor-spacing and three-point shooting. With the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown duo intact and supported by Marcus Smart's top-level passing or Payton Pritchard's mixture of good passing and strong shooting, Boston certainly has the offensive weaponry to outpace Miami.

After all, Miami has only won three quarters in this whole series.

Total Verdict 

Know for your NBA Picks that Miami's partly injury-induced offensive limitations will keep this game lower-scoring. Invest more heavily in the "under," though, if Williams III plays while Smart playing would likewise facilitate a lower-scoring game. For the above reasons, parlay the Celtics ATS with the "under."

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

Parlay Picks

  • Celtics -1.5 (-110)
  • Under 203.5 (-110)

NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+264) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Two-Legged Parlay (+264)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.