Heat vs. Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 4 Predictions and Pick

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The Boston Celtics will look to even the series with the Miami Heat in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on ABC this Monday evening. Miami surprised a lot of people with a Game 3 win that saw the Heat lead by 26 points early before Boston almost rallied.

Now the attention shifts towards the health of Jimmy Butler, who expects to play for the Heat. Keep reading for our NBA odds breakdown, a score prediction, and a winning pick!

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics 

Monday, May 23, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at TD Garden

The Celtics (52-41-3 ATS) are a 6.5-point favorite over the Heat (55-40-1 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks and betting sites. Both teams are 9-5 ATS this postseason, the best record in the NBA.

Miami is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog this season, the second-best record in the league. Can the top-seeded Heat shock Boston again? 

Game 3 Recap: Heat 109, Celtics 103 

This series is a tight, defensive battle that has not played out at all through three games. In Game 1, the Heat had a dominant 39-14 third quarter that blew open the game on their way to an 11-point win. Game 2 had just one lead change as the Celtics took a 70-45 lead on the road into halftime before winning 127-102. 

Things seemed to be trending in Boston’s way until the Heat started Game 3 with a 46-20 lead just a few minutes into the second quarter. But after Jimmy Butler did not return for the second half with a flare-up in his knee, the Celtics fought back behind Jaylen Brown’s 40 points.

A three from Brown cut Miami’s lead down to one point at 93-92 with 2:40 to play, seemingly the setup for another miraculous Boston comeback. 

Game 3: Players' Performances

But that’s when the top-seeded Heat showed their mettle and went on a 7-0 run to stop the comeback and win 109-103 to take a 2-1 lead. Brown was sensational for Boston, but Jayson Tatum scored just 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting in over 40 minutes of action in one of his least aggressive games of the season.  

Miami center Bam Adebayo really stepped up his game to ease the loss of Butler and played his best game this postseason. Adebayo finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists.  

The Heat were actually outshot by 1.8 percentage points and lost the rebound battle by 10 boards, but the Celtics had their worst turnover differential of the season with 23 giveaways and only eight takeaways. Boston was 18-0 when winning the rebound battle by at least 10 this season but make that 18-1 now.  

It was a shockingly bad start by Boston at home and nearly an epic collapse by the Heat without their best player in the second half. After three games, it is still hard to say which team is going to win this series. 

Are the Heat the Underdogs?

The Heat are a 6.5-point underdog in Game 4. The Heat are six wins away from winning the NBA championship, and it feels that even then when they receive the award on the podium, people will ask if they are really the best team in the league.

While plenty of hype and praise, sometimes deserved, has gone around this season to the Warriors, Suns, Grizzlies, Bucks, 76ers, and Celtics, few ever want to credit the Heat, the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Even after being one of this season’s best road teams and dominating most of the game in Boston.

Heat Injury Updates

The NBA odds have them as underdogs most likely due to Butler’s injury status, though he is questionable with a knee injury that has bothered him throughout this postseason where he has been outstanding. But Miami does have other injury concerns right now:

  • Tyler Herro is battling through a groin injury and hasn’t been very effective in the last two games.
  • P.J. Tucker (knee)
  • Max Strus (hamstring)
  • Gabe Vincent (hamstring)
  • Kyle Lowry (hamstring)

No one is ruled out yet, but keep an eye on the final lineup designations before Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 on Monday night. 

If Butler can play and Adebayo steps up again as he did on Saturday, then the Heat should be ready for another battle. While Brown won’t score 40 points again for Boston, Tatum also won’t score just 10. That duo is certainly capable of more than 50 points between them, so the Heat have to expect a better performance from the Celtics.

Miami’s defense has been impressive throughout the postseason. It may even be enough to go all the way should the team’s health problems not linger on. 

Heat vs. Celtics Prediction and Betting Pick

As an underdog of three or more points this season, Miami is 14-3 ATS and 11-6 SU. While the Celtics may very well win this game to even the series, hedging on the Heat with the points feels like the safer move in what has been an unpredictable series with plenty of swings so far.

The outlook is a bit different if Butler is ruled out, but with the assumption that he will play, let’s go with the Heat for your NBA picks this Monday.  

Score Prediction: Celtics 108, Heat 102 

NBA Pick: Miami Heat +6.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Miami Heat +6.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.