After three games, the Milwaukee Bucks have managed to steal home court from the Boston Celtics. Tonight in Game 4, Boston will hope to get one back from the Bucks. They will need a much better performance from Jayson Tatum as well as a better team effort against Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Let’s break this game down to see if we can cash another ticket tonight. Here is all you need to know for your best bets.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, May 09, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Celtics vs. Bucks: Recent Playoffs History
These two teams are no strangers when it comes to Playoffs matchups. When the Celtics beat the Bucks in 7 games back in 2017, Milwaukee responded by hiring coach Mike Budenholzer.
That next season, Milwaukee would go on to win 60 regular-season games and beat Boston in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Now that they have established themselves as NBA champions, they meet their old foe again in the second round.
The cast of characters is virtually the same but the players involved are much more mature. We know all of the things that Giannis Antetokounmpo has achieved in the years since that series back in 2017. Well, Jayson Tatum has changed a lot too since then.
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He was a rookie during that series and would end up going all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals that year. It was a valuable experience and after losing in the Conference Finals again two years later, he will be determined to get his team over the hump this season.
On a personal level, he isn't quite the player Giannis is (nobody is at the moment) but he has certainly elevated his game to the point that he is among the very best players in the game today.
This game opened at Milwaukee -1.5 and has been steamed down to -1 at most of the best online sportsbooks. It's obvious with this line that Vegas as well as the betting public thinks that the Celtics will come back and tie up this series. I'm not so sure about that.
Who Will Win Tonight and Why?
The Boston Celtics' defense is the real deal. Since the start of 2022, the Celtics' defense has been elite and it has been the foundation for their success.
They've managed to hold Giannis to 44% which is a feat in itself. Jrue Holiday has played well but he's only shooting 37% in the series as well.
While those should be reasons to be encouraged I look at it a bit differently. Both Giannis and Jrue are likely to play better and so will the supporting cast.
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On the season, Milwaukee was 5th in the NBA in three-point percentage where they made 38% of their attempts from deep. Through three games, they are only shooting 27% from behind the arc.
If you're a Celtics fan, the argument could be made that Jayson Tatum is due for a big game as well. While that might be true, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford could be due for some regression as well. It's hard to imagine that both of them will continue to shoot over 40% from three like they are right now.
For me, anything under Bucks -3 at home is a steal, even with Khris Middleton unavailable. This is a championship team with a ton of Playoff experience and the same nucleus of players that have gone through those battles. My official NBA pick is Bucks -1 (-110).
NBA Pick: Bucks -1 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
