thefantasyking7
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2022
- Messages
- 11
WTA Madrid
Ons Jabeur vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
In the first semi-final in Madrid, Jabeur enters as the sizeable(-190) betting favorite against Ekaterina Alexandrova. The Russians run through Madrid actually began in the qualifying, so while she finds herself the underdog in this match-up against the highest remaining player left in the draw, it is far from an unfamiliar place.It’s been a bit of an up and down season so far for the crisp hitting 27-year-old from Russia so far this season —- seemingly pairing each deep run (Charleston/Madrid), with early exits (Stuttgart, Indian Wells). It’s been tough to get a good read on Ekaterina so far this season, she’s had serious issues at times this year with her backhand, dumping the ball into the net far too often from that side of the net. That being said this week it’s been maybe her most lethal weapon, particularly in return where she’s been aggressive against wide serves, picking up quick points and applying pressure to the opposition serve incredibly well.
Furthermore, a 6-1 head-to-head in favor of Alexandrova goes beyond a mere advantage and into the realm of domination. Jabeur has played Alexandrova on grass, on clay, and on hard courts, and has lost on each surface. Some head-to-heads come with caveats, but there's no getting around the fact that six out of seven matches going one way implies an inherent matchup issue for the Tunisian. Even with the time that’s passed between now and then, such a one-sided matchup almost necessitates action when Alexandrova is such a heavy dog.
But as much as I’d love to load up the underdog, Jabeur’s performance this week has been truly dazzling. Her variety is going to give Alexandrova genuine problems, and the #1 African player in the world has the kind of service game that Ekaterina tends to struggle with. So with all this in mind, and having looked over the lines for a little VALUE, I’m betting…
Play —— Over 21.5 Games (-115)
- Tennis YTD ——— 45-32-2 (10.97U)
ATP Madrid
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev is yet to show his best form this year and this week in Madrid looks unlikely the place he would do so. The German hasn’t had any momentum whatsoever in the clay-court tournaments he’s played so far and he’s ripe for an upset sooner rather than later. The fiery German stud couldn’t handle the pressure of his home event in Munich, and if it had been one area of his game betraying him the answers might feel closer. But it’s been a multitude of issues for Zverev, whose typically strong defensive game plan hasn’t been made of steel, but rather swiss cheese. Beyond that at times it’s been his serve, failing to win easy points at the rate he’s used to, and most often it’s just been youthful negligence —- too often losing focus for multiple games at a time. Honestly, he’s a guy I’ve stayed away from because the variance is just tough to stomach, but facing Musseti I think there’s really some value to be had.The Italian has really come into his own this clay-court season, managing 3+ wins in each of the last three events, including a rather impressive run through the bracket here in Madrid. His one-hand backhand is a weapon to watch, and as one would expect from an Italian-born player, his clay “instincts” are deeply ingrained, wielding a wide variety of slice and drop shots in his gameplay to keep bigger hitting opponents unsteadied.
Play —- Musseti To win A Set (-100)
