Website for Double Digit underdogs ATS for NFL in 2022?

slickfazzer · Aug 15, 2023

Thanks if anyone has this stat, or a link to the info.

Tanko · Aug 15, 2023

slickfazzer said:
Thanks if anyone has this stat, or a link to the info.

Sorry Slick I couldn't find a site that has the data specific to what you've asked for but, I did find an interesting article on the subject. Its from 2017.

Key Points:

Historically 1989-2017 Favs cover the DD spread 49.3% of the time.
NFL trends have changed though w/ more scoring occuring. 2007-2017 data shows 52.8% cover.
2012-2017 its been 57.5% cover by DD Favs
2012-2017 Teams that are DD Favs and lost their last game they cover 66.7% but if they won their prior game they cover 51.4%.

Betting Double-Digit Favorites in the NFL | Sports Betting Picks, Tips, and Blog| Fast Break Bets

We’re already in Week 6 of the NFL season believe it or not. Last week, we saw an incredibly tight card with 11 of 14 games closing with a three-point spread or less and none getting higher than eight points. […]

www.fastbreakbets.com

Would be nice to see more recent data on this.

stormtrooper8 · Aug 15, 2023

Tanko said:
2012-2017 Teams that are DD Favs and lost their last game they cover 66.7% but if they won their prior game they cover 51.4%.

This is the money stat

quantumleap · Aug 15, 2023

I use KillerSports but the last time I linked to a query the link was removed so I'll just post the query syntax along with the results for the last 4 years:

line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games	ATS	Avg Line	O/U	Avg Total	SU	query
38	16-21-1 (-1.91, 43.2%)	13.1	13-23-2 (-1.20, 36.1%)	45.1	5-33-0 (-14.97, 13.2%)	season = 2019
30	12-16-2 (-1.47, 42.9%)	12.5	8-21-1 (-4.63, 27.6%)	47.4	3-27-0 (-14.00, 10.0%)	season = 2020
52	20-29-3 (-2.04, 40.8%)	12.4	25-27-0 (0.28, 48.1%)	46.0	9-43-0 (-14.44, 17.3%)	season = 2021
30	19-11-0 (1.77, 63.3%)	12.2	14-16-0 (-0.23, 46.7%)	44.1	3-27-0 (-10.43, 10.0%)	season = 2022

slickfazzer · Aug 15, 2023

Great stuff guys, thanks for the info.

Tanko · Aug 15, 2023

quantumleap said:
I use KillerSports but the last time I linked to a query the link was removed so I'll just post the query syntax along with the results for the last 4 years:

line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games ATS Avg Line O/U Avg Total SU query
38 16-21-1 (-1.91, 43.2%) 13.1 13-23-2 (-1.20, 36.1%) 45.1 5-33-0 (-14.97, 13.2%) season = 2019
30 12-16-2 (-1.47, 42.9%) 12.5 8-21-1 (-4.63, 27.6%) 47.4 3-27-0 (-14.00, 10.0%) season = 2020
52 20-29-3 (-2.04, 40.8%) 12.4 25-27-0 (0.28, 48.1%) 46.0 9-43-0 (-14.44, 17.3%) season = 2021
30 19-11-0 (1.77, 63.3%) 12.2 14-16-0 (-0.23, 46.7%) 44.1 3-27-0 (-10.43, 10.0%) season = 2022

This is the Dog bets, right?

So the Favs covered:
2019 56.8%
2020 57.1%
2021 59.2%
2022 37.5%

Wow what a change in 2022.

Tanko · Aug 15, 2023

quantumleap said:
I use KillerSports but the last time I linked to a query the link was removed so I'll just post the query syntax along with the results for the last 4 years:

line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games ATS Avg Line O/U Avg Total SU query
38 16-21-1 (-1.91, 43.2%) 13.1 13-23-2 (-1.20, 36.1%) 45.1 5-33-0 (-14.97, 13.2%) season = 2019
30 12-16-2 (-1.47, 42.9%) 12.5 8-21-1 (-4.63, 27.6%) 47.4 3-27-0 (-14.00, 10.0%) season = 2020
52 20-29-3 (-2.04, 40.8%) 12.4 25-27-0 (0.28, 48.1%) 46.0 9-43-0 (-14.44, 17.3%) season = 2021
30 19-11-0 (1.77, 63.3%) 12.2 14-16-0 (-0.23, 46.7%) 44.1 3-27-0 (-10.43, 10.0%) season = 2022

QL, can you run a sim showing how often the FAVs covered these DD games following a loss and following a win?

Excellent info BTW.

Thanks.

Wagerallsports · Aug 15, 2023

Tanko said:
Wow what a change in 2022.

Sure was

quantumleap · Aug 17, 2023

Tanko said:
This is the Dog bets, right?

So the Favs covered:
2019 56.8%
2020 57.1%
2021 59.2%
2022 37.5%

Wow what a change in 2022.

Yes, the part of the query that states "line >= 10" gives results for teams with a line of +10 or more.

The numbers you list are correct for the Favs.

quantumleap · Aug 17, 2023

Tanko said:
QL, can you run a sim showing how often the FAVs covered these DD games following a loss and following a win?

Excellent info BTW.

Thanks.

p:L and o:line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games	ATS	Avg Line	O/U	Avg Total	SU	query
7	4-2-1 (3.14, 66.7%)	-12.0	3-4-0 (0.14, 42.9%)	42.7	6-1-0 (15.14, 85.7%)	season = 2019
6	1-3-2 (-1.42, 25.0%)	-13.2	2-4-0 (-7.50, 33.3%)	46.0	5-1-0 (11.83, 83.3%)	season = 2020
22	12-9-1 (0.25, 57.1%)	-12.4	9-13-0 (-1.27, 40.9%)	46.4	18-4-0 (12.68, 81.8%)	season = 2021
7	2-5-0 (-6.36, 28.6%)	-11.5	1-6-0 (-7.14, 14.3%)	43.1	6-1-0 (5.14, 85.7%)	season = 2022

p:W and o:line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games	ATS	Avg Line	O/U	Avg Total	SU	query
31	17-14-0 (1.63, 54.8%)	-13.3	10-19-2 (-1.50, 34.5%)	45.6	27-4-0 (14.94, 87.1%)	season = 2019
23	14-9-0 (2.11, 60.9%)	-12.5	6-17-0 (-4.09, 26.1%)	47.5	21-2-0 (14.57, 91.3%)	season = 2020
30	17-11-2 (3.35, 60.7%)	-12.4	16-14-0 (1.42, 53.3%)	45.7	25-5-0 (15.73, 83.3%)	season = 2021
23	9-14-0 (-0.37, 39.1%)	-12.4	13-10-0 (1.87, 56.5%)	44.3	21-2-0 (12.04, 91.3%)	season = 2022

Tanko · Aug 17, 2023

quantumleap said:
p:L and o:line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games ATS Avg Line O/U Avg Total SU query
7 4-2-1 (3.14, 66.7%) -12.0 3-4-0 (0.14, 42.9%) 42.7 6-1-0 (15.14, 85.7%) season = 2019
6 1-3-2 (-1.42, 25.0%) -13.2 2-4-0 (-7.50, 33.3%) 46.0 5-1-0 (11.83, 83.3%) season = 2020
22 12-9-1 (0.25, 57.1%) -12.4 9-13-0 (-1.27, 40.9%) 46.4 18-4-0 (12.68, 81.8%) season = 2021
7 2-5-0 (-6.36, 28.6%) -11.5 1-6-0 (-7.14, 14.3%) 43.1 6-1-0 (5.14, 85.7%) season = 2022

p:W and o:line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games ATS Avg Line O/U Avg Total SU query
31 17-14-0 (1.63, 54.8%) -13.3 10-19-2 (-1.50, 34.5%) 45.6 27-4-0 (14.94, 87.1%) season = 2019
23 14-9-0 (2.11, 60.9%) -12.5 6-17-0 (-4.09, 26.1%) 47.5 21-2-0 (14.57, 91.3%) season = 2020
30 17-11-2 (3.35, 60.7%) -12.4 16-14-0 (1.42, 53.3%) 45.7 25-5-0 (15.73, 83.3%) season = 2021
23 9-14-0 (-0.37, 39.1%) -12.4 13-10-0 (1.87, 56.5%) 44.3 21-2-0 (12.04, 91.3%) season = 2022

Sorry I'm not that familiar with SQL queries anymore. The first table with "p:L" does that mean this is the data for when the DOG lost its last game and is now a 10+ pt dog or is it when the FAV lost its last game and is not a 10+ Fav?

When the current double digit FAV lost its last game is what I'm looking for.
Sorry I'm a pain the a$$.
Thanks.

jjgold · Aug 17, 2023

KIller Sports not bad if you know the language

quantumleap · Aug 17, 2023

Tanko said:
Sorry I'm not that familiar with SQL queries anymore. The first table with "p:L" does that mean this is the data for when the DOG lost its last game and is now a 10+ pt dog or is it when the FAV lost its last game and is not a 10+ Fav?

When the current double digit FAV lost its last game is what I'm looking for.
Sorry I'm a pain the a$$.
Thanks.

Not a problem. I should have elaborated a bit more.

The first table is when the double-digit fave lost their last game. The second table is when the double-digit fave won their last game.

For those who want to know the syntax:
p:L
previous game was a loss

p:W
previous game was a win

o:line >= 10
Opponent's line was +10 or greater

season>=2019
Includes all games from the 2019 season and later.

season
When this appears by itself, it groups the results by season. If this were missing, the cumulative results for all seasons including 2019 and later would appear on one line.

bigshooter · Aug 18, 2023

According To Vegas Insider Last Season.
Double-Digit Dogs Were 19-10 In Regular Season ATS
1-0 In Playoffs ATS.

Tanko · Aug 18, 2023

quantumleap said:
Not a problem. I should have elaborated a bit more.

The first table is when the double-digit fave lost their last game. The second table is when the double-digit fave won their last game.

For those who want to know the syntax:
p:L
previous game was a loss

p:W
previous game was a win

o:line >= 10
Opponent's line was +10 or greater

season>=2019
Includes all games from the 2019 season and later.

season
When this appears by itself, it groups the results by season. If this were missing, the cumulative results for all seasons including 2019 and later would appear on one line.

Thank you sir.

Tanko · Aug 18, 2023

quantumleap said:
p:L and o:line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games ATS Avg Line O/U Avg Total SU query
7 4-2-1 (3.14, 66.7%) -12.0 3-4-0 (0.14, 42.9%) 42.7 6-1-0 (15.14, 85.7%) season = 2019
6 1-3-2 (-1.42, 25.0%) -13.2 2-4-0 (-7.50, 33.3%) 46.0 5-1-0 (11.83, 83.3%) season = 2020
22 12-9-1 (0.25, 57.1%) -12.4 9-13-0 (-1.27, 40.9%) 46.4 18-4-0 (12.68, 81.8%) season = 2021
7 2-5-0 (-6.36, 28.6%) -11.5 1-6-0 (-7.14, 14.3%) 43.1 6-1-0 (5.14, 85.7%) season = 2022

p:W and o:line >= 10 and season>=2019 and season

games ATS Avg Line O/U Avg Total SU query
31 17-14-0 (1.63, 54.8%) -13.3 10-19-2 (-1.50, 34.5%) 45.6 27-4-0 (14.94, 87.1%) season = 2019
23 14-9-0 (2.11, 60.9%) -12.5 6-17-0 (-4.09, 26.1%) 47.5 21-2-0 (14.57, 91.3%) season = 2020
30 17-11-2 (3.35, 60.7%) -12.4 16-14-0 (1.42, 53.3%) 45.7 25-5-0 (15.73, 83.3%) season = 2021
23 9-14-0 (-0.37, 39.1%) -12.4 13-10-0 (1.87, 56.5%) 44.3 21-2-0 (12.04, 91.3%) season = 2022

So the bottom line is the 4th bullet point (post #2) in the article I read which stated:

2012-2017 Teams that are DD Favs and lost their last game they cover 66.7% but if they won their prior game they cover 51.4%.

Does not appear to be a consistant winner in the years following 2017.

stormtrooper8 · Aug 18, 2023

bigshooter said:
According To Vegas Insider Last Season.
Double-Digit Dogs Were 19-10 In Regular Season ATS
1-0 In Playoffs ATS.

Interesting trend

But not a big enough sample size to get much value out of

DiggityDaggityDo · Aug 19, 2023

Not sure how this is going to embed:

Season	Week	Date	Spread Result	Matchup (spread)	Score	Ovr/Und	Site Fav/Dog	Surface	Record	Streak
2022	2	9/18/22	L	Falcons (+10) at Rams (-10)	27 31	O 46	HF-L	Turf	0-1 0-1	L1 L1
2022	2	9/18/22	L	Texans (+10) at Broncos (-10)	9 16	U 46	HF-L	Grass	0-0-1 0-1	T1 L1
2022	2	9/18/22	W	Bears (+10) at Packers (-10)	10 27	U 42	HF-W	Grass	1-0 0-1	W1 L1
2022	2	9/19/22	W	Titans (+10) at Bills (-10)	7 41	P 48	HF-W	Turf	0-1 1-0	L1 W1
2022	5	10/9/22	W	Steelers (+14) at Bills (-14)	3 38	U 44	HF-W	Turf	1-3 3-1	L3 W1
2022	5	10/9/22	L	Falcons (+10) at Buccaneers (-10)	15 21	U 46	HF-L	Grass	2-2 2-2	W2 L2
2022	7	10/23/22	L	Buccaneers (-13) at Panthers (+13)	3 21	U 38	AF-L	Grass	3-3 1-5	L1 L3
2022	8	10/30/22	W	Bears (+10) at Cowboys (-10)	29 49	O 42	HF-W	Turf	3-4 5-2	W1 W1
2022	8	10/30/22	W	Steelers (+11) at Eagles (-11)	13 35	O 43	HF-W	grass	2-5 6-0	L1 W6
2022	8	10/30/22	L	Packers (+10½) at Bills (-10½)	17 27	U 47	HF-L	Turf	3-4 5-1	L3 W3
2022	9	11/3/22	L	Eagles (-14) at Texans (+14)	29 17	P 46	AF-L	Grass	7-0 1-5-1	W7 L2
2022	9	11/6/22	L	Bills (-10½) at Jets (+10½)	17 20	U 46	AF-L	Turf	6-1 5-3	W4 L1
2022	9	11/6/22	L	Titans (+14) at Chiefs (-14)	17 20	U 46	HF-L	Grass	5-2 5-2	W5 W1
2022	10	11/14/22	L	Commanders (+11) at Eagles (-11)	32 21	O 43	HF-L	grass	4-5 8-0	L1 W8
2022	11	11/20/22	L	Panthers (+12½) at Ravens (-12½)	3 13	U 42	HF-L	Grass	3-7 6-3	W1 W3
2022	12	11/24/22	L	Giants (+10) at Cowboys (-10)	20 28	O 46	HF-L	Turf	7-3 7-3	L1 W1
2022	12	11/27/22	W	Texans (+14) at Dolphins (-14)	15 30	U 48	HF-W	Grass	1-8-1 7-3	L5 W4
2022	12	11/27/22	W	Rams (+15½) at Chiefs (-15½)	10 26	U 42	HF-W	Grass	3-7 8-2	L4 W4
2022	13	12/4/22	W	Colts (+11) at Cowboys (-11)	19 54	O 44	HF-W	Turf	4-7-1 8-3	L2 W2
2022	14	12/11/22	L	Jets (+10) at Bills (-10)	12 20	U 44	HF-L	Turf	7-5 9-3	L1 W3
2022	14	12/11/22	L	Texans (+17) at Cowboys (-17)	23 27	O 44	HF-L	Turf	1-10-1 9-3	L7 W3
2022	15	12/18/22	L	Chiefs (-14) at Texans (+14)	30 24	O 48	AF-L	Grass	10-3 1-11-1	W1 L8
2022	16	12/24/22	W	Seahawks (+10) at Chiefs (-10)	10 24	U 50	HF-W	Grass	7-7 11-3	L2 W2
2022	17	12/29/22	P	Cowboys (-14) at Titans (+14)	27 13	P 40	AF-P	Grass	11-4 7-8	W1 L5
2022	17	1/1/23	L	Broncos (+12½) at Chiefs (-12½)	24 27	O 46	HF-L	Grass	4-11 12-3	L1 W3
2022	17	1/1/23	L	49ers (-10) at Raiders (+10)	37 34	O 41	AF-L	Grass	11-4 6-9	W8 L1
2022	18	1/8/23	L	Ravens (+11½) at Bengals (-11½)	16 27	O 39	HF-L	Turf	10-7 13-5-1	L1 T1
2022	18	1/8/23	W	Cardinals (+14) at 49ers (-14)	13 38	O 40	HF-W	Grass	4-12 14-5-1	L6 W9
2022	18	1/8/23	L	Giants (+16½) at Eagles (-16½)	16 22	U 42	HF-L	grass	10-7-1 15-4	W1 L2
2022	PS1	1/15/23	L	Dolphins (+14) at Bills (-14)	31 34	O 44	HF-L	Turf	8-8 12-3-1	W1

Tanko · Aug 19, 2023

DiggityDaggityDo said:
Not sure how this is going to embed:

Season
Week
Date Spread
Result Matchup
(spread)
Score
Ovr/Und Site
Fav/Dog
Surface
Record
Streak

2022

2

9/18/22

L

Falcons (+10)
at Rams (-10)

27
31

O 46

HF-L

Turf

0-1
0-1

L1
L1

2022

2

9/18/22

L

Texans (+10)
at Broncos (-10)

9
16

U 46

HF-L

Grass

0-0-1
0-1

T1
L1

2022

2

9/18/22

W

Bears (+10)
at Packers (-10)

10
27

U 42

HF-W

Grass

1-0
0-1

W1
L1

2022

2

9/19/22

W

Titans (+10)
at Bills (-10)

7
41

P 48

HF-W

Turf

0-1
1-0

L1
W1

2022

5

10/9/22

W

Steelers (+14)
at Bills (-14)

3
38

U 44

HF-W

Turf

1-3
3-1

L3
W1

2022

5

10/9/22

L

Falcons (+10)
at Buccaneers (-10)

15
21

U 46

HF-L

Grass

2-2
2-2

W2
L2

2022

7

10/23/22

L

Buccaneers (-13)
at Panthers (+13)

3
21

U 38

AF-L

Grass

3-3
1-5

L1
L3

2022

8

10/30/22

W

Bears (+10)
at Cowboys (-10)

29
49

O 42

HF-W

Turf

3-4
5-2

W1
W1

2022

8

10/30/22

W

Steelers (+11)
at Eagles (-11)

13
35

O 43

HF-W

grass

2-5
6-0

L1
W6

2022

8

10/30/22

L

Packers (+10½)
at Bills (-10½)

17
27

U 47

HF-L

Turf

3-4
5-1

L3
W3

2022

9

11/3/22

L

Eagles (-14)
at Texans (+14)

29
17

P 46

AF-L

Grass

7-0
1-5-1

W7
L2

2022

9

11/6/22

L

Bills (-10½)
at Jets (+10½)

17
20

U 46

AF-L

Turf

6-1
5-3

W4
L1

2022

9

11/6/22

L

Titans (+14)
at Chiefs (-14)

17
20

U 46

HF-L

Grass

5-2
5-2

W5
W1

2022

10

11/14/22

L

Commanders (+11)
at Eagles (-11)

32
21

O 43

HF-L

grass

4-5
8-0

L1
W8

2022

11

11/20/22

L

Panthers (+12½)
at Ravens (-12½)

3
13

U 42

HF-L

Grass

3-7
6-3

W1
W3

2022

12

11/24/22

L

Giants (+10)
at Cowboys (-10)

20
28

O 46

HF-L

Turf

7-3
7-3

L1
W1

2022

12

11/27/22

W

Texans (+14)
at Dolphins (-14)

15
30

U 48

HF-W

Grass

1-8-1
7-3

L5
W4

2022

12

11/27/22

W

Rams (+15½)
at Chiefs (-15½)

10
26

U 42

HF-W

Grass

3-7
8-2

L4
W4

2022

13

12/4/22

W

Colts (+11)
at Cowboys (-11)

19
54

O 44

HF-W

Turf

4-7-1
8-3

L2
W2

2022

14

12/11/22

L

Jets (+10)
at Bills (-10)

12
20

U 44

HF-L

Turf

7-5
9-3

L1
W3

2022

14

12/11/22

L

Texans (+17)
at Cowboys (-17)

23
27

O 44

HF-L

Turf

1-10-1
9-3

L7
W3

2022

15

12/18/22

L

Chiefs (-14)
at Texans (+14)

30
24

O 48

AF-L

Grass

10-3
1-11-1

W1
L8

2022

16

12/24/22

W

Seahawks (+10)
at Chiefs (-10)

10
24

U 50

HF-W

Grass

7-7
11-3

L2
W2

2022

17

12/29/22

P

Cowboys (-14)
at Titans (+14)

27
13

P 40

AF-P

Grass

11-4
7-8

W1
L5

2022

17

1/1/23

L

Broncos (+12½)
at Chiefs (-12½)

24
27

O 46

HF-L

Grass

4-11
12-3

L1
W3

2022

17

1/1/23

L

49ers (-10)
at Raiders (+10)

37
34

O 41

AF-L

Grass

11-4
6-9

W8
L1

2022

18

1/8/23

L

Ravens (+11½)
at Bengals (-11½)

16
27

O 39

HF-L

Turf

10-7
13-5-1

L1
T1

2022

18

1/8/23

W

Cardinals (+14)
at 49ers (-14)

13
38

O 40

HF-W

Grass

4-12
14-5-1

L6
W9

2022

18

1/8/23

L

Giants (+16½)
at Eagles (-16½)

16
22

U 42

HF-L

grass

10-7-1
15-4

W1
L2

2022

PS1

1/15/23

L

Dolphins (+14)
at Bills (-14)

31
34

O 44

HF-L

Turf

8-8
12-3-1

W1

It embedded perfect Diggity.

KVB · Aug 19, 2023

Website for Double Digit underdogs ATS for NFL in 2022?

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