USFL SAT 5.28

[carolinakid]

2 games on tap for today 12 noon on the usa ch. NJ/TAMPA BAY .. NJ-3.5 AND 42.5 ...9PM EASTERN ON FS1 CH .NEW ORLEANS/MICH..NO-5 AND 42......gl to posters playing these 2 today

 

[Wagerallsports]

The totals have definitely gone up

 

[Wagerallsports]

I think last 8 games or more have gone over

 

[carolinakid]

yes i notice that as well, to this date i have yet to place a bet on this football

 

[Tanko]

For the first game NJ Generals vs TB Bandits I see an edge with taking NJ -3.5.

NJ has beaten simliar competition readily. They beat the New Orelans Breakers by 10 and the Philly Stars by 8. They had a tight game vs Houston Gamblers last week (a not so good team but, better than their 1-5 record) but if you review their performance vs the spread, they seem to easily cover against good teams (Breakers, Stars) and barely/not cover against bad teams (Panthers, Maulers, Gamblers).

The O/U looks dead on. I model it at 42 based on previous games w/ similar level of competition. I see no edge.

Sure the last 8 games in USFL have been over, but realize TB has the 2nd lowest point total in the league. Only the Maulers are worse. TB definitely knows how to lay an egg every now and then.

	Avg Pts For	Avg pts Against
Tampa	19	22
New Jersey	22	18
	41	40

Good luck

 

[Tanko]

Night game New Orleans Breakers -5 vs Mich Panthers. Total 42.

Lean towards the Breakers -5 in this one. They cover against bad teams like the Panthers. They beat the Maulers by 10 and Gamblers by 7 in the last 3 weeks.

The Panthers lose well too against good teams. The lost by 16 to the Stallions and 7 to the Bandits. I consider the Stallions and Bandits as performance bookends for the Breakers who are somewhere in between those two in level of play (maybe closer to the Stallions).

Recent games for New Orleans against "bad" teams show point totals of 42 and 39.
When Panthers play "good" teams like New Orleans the totals have been 50, 47, 51.
That lends itself to selecting the over 42 for the game. But, I think we will be depending upon New Orleans to get us there and the pts for and pts against average for these teams doesn't push me over the top. So, I'm avoiding the totals on this game.

	Avg Pts For	Avg pts Against
New Orleans	23	17
Michigan	17	19
	40	36

 

[Tanko]

Another interesting piece of data.

Favorites are covering 3 out of 4 games in 4 weeks of the season and are 2-2 in the other 2 weeks of play. 16-8 overall with Favs covering.

 

[carolinakid]

Thanks for adding the great info in this thread Tanko, bol if you use this football today

 

[Bettor Days]

New Jersey.

 

[Tanko]

Alright Bettor Days we got the first one.

Let's hope New Orleans comes through tonight.