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UFC Fight Night Ortega vs. Rodriguez: Expert picks and best bets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFeatherweight contenders Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez meet in the UFC Fight Night main event at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, on Saturday. In this classic matchup of grappler vs. striker, both fighters enter the bout looking to return to the win column after suffering losses in each of their last fights.
Ortega, a submission ace ranked No. 4 in ESPN's featherweight rankings, fell to reigning champ Alexander Volkanovski in a title fight at UFC 266.
Rodriguez, a standup specialist, is No. 9 in ESPN's featherweight rankings. He couldn't stop Max Holloway in his last appearance in the Octagon, losing by unanimous decision.
With Ortega and Rodriguez considered to be among the top fighters the division has to offer, this could be a bout to determine who gets a shot at the title next. Will Ortega get a second chance against Volkanovski, or will Rodriguez secure his first shot at the belt?
ESPN's Marc Raimondi touched base with an MMA coaching veteran to get his perspective on a pivotal featherweight matchup and how things could play out inside the Octagon. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape
| ORTEGA | RODRIGUEZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31.4 | 29.8 |
| Height | 68.0 | 71.0 |
| Reach | 69.0 | 71.0 |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Sept. 25, 2021 | Nov. 13, 2021 |
How Rodriguez wins: Use his length and kicks to keep his range, mainly to keep his back off the cage. Rodriguez will need to utilize anti-wrestling strikes and kicks, meaning putting strikes up the midline to negate Ortega's level change. Equally as important: when he disconnects from the clinch or defends a takedown, to mind his head placement and neckline. Ortega only needs a small window and he's on a choke.
X factor: Both fighters must stay disciplined from bell to bell, or until the ref pulls them apart. Don't get lulled to sleep thinking you're safe, because either can finish the fight at any time.
Prediction: This is a very evenly matched fight, but I lean toward Rodriguez pulling off a late TKO or knockout. I'd like to see Rodriguez get his crack at Volkanovski, only because of the style matchup he can bring to the champ.
Betting Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Ortega Vs. Rodriguez
| Stand-up striking offense | Ortega | Rodriguez |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 5:1 | 3:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Head jab accuracy | 26% | 30% |
| Head power accuracy | 32% | 28% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 24% | 28% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 25 | 38 |
| Takedown defense | 56% | 61% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 27% | 26% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Kuhn: Rodriguez to win (+140). This is another competitive Fight Night main event. If we go by "MMA Math," it's worth noting both men fell short against Max Holloway, but Rodriguez put in a more competitive fight against the former champ, and even won some rounds against one of the division's best.
Both men are willing to stand and trade, but what sets them apart is the higher pace and better defense of Rodriguez. He also offers a more diverse variety of strikes, mixing in attacks at all levels. He could outpoint close rounds while standing, and has decent enough experience on the ground that he at least shouldn't be owned there.
However, Ortega has notoriously tight chokes, and attempts more than one submission every other trip to ground. It should be a back and forth main event, but I'll take the plus money knowing the rounds will be very close.
Parker: Rodriguez to win (+140). Coming off a unanimous-decision loss to the featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski, Ortega returns to the cage almost a year later in hopes of getting back on track with a win over Rodriguez. For Ortega, he has a clear path to victory -- getting the fight to the ground and keeping it there. However, if he fails to do so, he will be in for a long night as Rodriguez is an elite striker and Ortega is known to take a lot of damage.
I am surprised at the odds here as I figured it would be closer to even. I believe Rodriguez's takedown defense has improved, which will help to keep the fight on the feet. At underdog odds, I am going with the elusive striking of Rodriguez to fend off takedowns and pick apart Ortega on the feet.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs. Muslim Salikhov
Parker: Salikhov to win (-165). Salikhov will be looking for a victory over Jingliang to earn his sixth UFC win in a row. Salikhov is a terrific striker with tremendous power, but as we've seen recently by Neil Magny and Khamzat Chimaev, the easiest path to resistance against Jingliang is wrestling. Jingliang has good power in his strikes, as we saw in his most recent win against Santiago Ponzinibbio, but once he is on his back, he struggles to pose any submission threat or to get back to his feet.Featherweight: Shane Burgos vs. Charles
Parker: Burgos to win (-170). In what promises to be a top candidate for fight of the night, Burgos and Jourdain will be looking to keep their win streaks alive. I believe this fight comes down to the fight IQ of Burgos. He can be a slow setter and accepts fighting off his back if he is taken down. He's succeeded when pressing the action early and getting takedowns to hurt his opponent.
Jourdain is an excellent striker, but he poses very little threat to Burgos off his back. If Burgos can stay away from brawling, he has all the tools to win a hard-fought decision here.
Women's flyweight: Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate
Parker: Tate by decision (-105). Murphy will be looking to bounce back after her recent loss to Valentina Shevchenko. For Murphy, I believe Tate is stylistically a nightmare matchup for her. Murphy does carry power in her hands, but it's nothing Tate hasn't seen before. It will just be a matter of time before Tate takes this fight to the mat, where her wrestling will be dominant. In 20 fights, Murphy has only been finished once, so I don't see Tate finishing her, but I think Tate will be able to use her striking to set up her takedowns en route to winning by decision.
